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SOI data shows many low-AGI filers who file taxes voluntarily even when not required and not receiving a refund. This affects calibration accuracy when comparing CPS-based filer counts to SOI totals. Add would_file_taxes_voluntarily variable at tax_unit level with ~5% probability, using seeded RNG for reproducibility. This enables policyengine-us to incorporate voluntary filing behavior in its tax_unit_is_filer variable. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replace simple 5% voluntary filing rate with more nuanced approach: 1. Add would_file_for_refund variable that identifies tax units taking up EITC (95% of EITC takers are assumed to know they'll get a refund) 2. Apply voluntary filing rate (3%) only to those NOT already filing for a refund, to avoid double-counting This better models the actual filing decision process where refundable credit recipients have a clear financial incentive to file, while others may file for state requirements, documentation, or habit. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Voluntary filer changes (cps.py): - Remove redundant would_file_for_refund variable since takes_up_eitc already captures refund-seeking behavior - Simplify to single would_file_taxes_voluntarily variable that applies only to tax units NOT taking up EITC - Use 5% voluntary filing rate for non-EITC takers Calibration target changes (loss.py): - Add SOI Table 1.1 filer counts by AGI band as calibration targets - Covers 7 bands: <$0, $0-5k, $5k-10k, $10k-25k, $25k-50k, $50k-100k, $100k+ - Includes all filers (not just taxable returns) to properly calibrate low-income filer counts which are important for distribution accuracy - Uprates 2015 SOI counts to current year using population growth This consolidates PR #514 into PR #513. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This was referenced Feb 7, 2026
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Summary
would_file_taxes_voluntarilyvariable for tax units that file for non-refund reasonsBackground
The
tax_unit_is_filervariable in policyengine-us currently only captures:However, SOI data shows ~21M filers with AGI < $10k, many of whom file voluntarily even when not required and not receiving a refund. These voluntary filers may file for reasons such as state filing requirements, documentation purposes, or habit.
Changes
Voluntary filer logic (cps.py)
takes_up_eitcas proxy for refund-seeking behavior (no need for separate variable)would_file_taxes_voluntarilyfor tax units NOT taking up EITC who still file (~5%)Calibration targets (loss.py)
Test plan
would_file_taxes_voluntarilyis added to CPS dataset at ~5% rate for non-EITC takersDependencies
would_file_taxes_voluntarilyvariableRelated issues
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