Add tax filer count calibration targets by AGI band #514
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Add calibration targets for total tax filers by AGI band from SOI Table 1.1. This improves calibration for low-income households by including all filers (not just taxable returns) and covering AGI ranges below $10k that were previously excluded. The ~21M filers with AGI < $10k are important for getting the low-income distribution right, as they represent a significant portion of the tax-filing population. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
MaxGhenis
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Feb 7, 2026
Voluntary filer changes (cps.py): - Remove redundant would_file_for_refund variable since takes_up_eitc already captures refund-seeking behavior - Simplify to single would_file_taxes_voluntarily variable that applies only to tax units NOT taking up EITC - Use 5% voluntary filing rate for non-EITC takers Calibration target changes (loss.py): - Add SOI Table 1.1 filer counts by AGI band as calibration targets - Covers 7 bands: <$0, $0-5k, $5k-10k, $10k-25k, $25k-50k, $50k-100k, $100k+ - Includes all filers (not just taxable returns) to properly calibrate low-income filer counts which are important for distribution accuracy - Uprates 2015 SOI counts to current year using population growth This consolidates PR #514 into PR #513. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Consolidated into PR #513 which now includes both the voluntary filer logic and the filer count calibration targets. |
MaxGhenis
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Feb 8, 2026
* Add voluntary tax filer assignment SOI data shows many low-AGI filers who file taxes voluntarily even when not required and not receiving a refund. This affects calibration accuracy when comparing CPS-based filer counts to SOI totals. Add would_file_taxes_voluntarily variable at tax_unit level with ~5% probability, using seeded RNG for reproducibility. This enables policyengine-us to incorporate voluntary filing behavior in its tax_unit_is_filer variable. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Improve voluntary tax filer logic with refund-seeking behavior Replace simple 5% voluntary filing rate with more nuanced approach: 1. Add would_file_for_refund variable that identifies tax units taking up EITC (95% of EITC takers are assumed to know they'll get a refund) 2. Apply voluntary filing rate (3%) only to those NOT already filing for a refund, to avoid double-counting This better models the actual filing decision process where refundable credit recipients have a clear financial incentive to file, while others may file for state requirements, documentation, or habit. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Simplify voluntary filer logic and add filer count calibration targets Voluntary filer changes (cps.py): - Remove redundant would_file_for_refund variable since takes_up_eitc already captures refund-seeking behavior - Simplify to single would_file_taxes_voluntarily variable that applies only to tax units NOT taking up EITC - Use 5% voluntary filing rate for non-EITC takers Calibration target changes (loss.py): - Add SOI Table 1.1 filer counts by AGI band as calibration targets - Covers 7 bands: <$0, $0-5k, $5k-10k, $10k-25k, $25k-50k, $50k-100k, $100k+ - Includes all filers (not just taxable returns) to properly calibrate low-income filer counts which are important for distribution accuracy - Uprates 2015 SOI counts to current year using population growth This consolidates PR #514 into PR #513. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> * Add changelog entry Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
Background
Currently the calibration in loss.py:
This means we're not calibrating to the ~21M filers with AGI < $10k, which are important for getting the low-income distribution right.
Test plan
make testto verify no regressions🤖 Generated with Claude Code