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Add tax filing propensity variables#7333

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MaxGhenis merged 5 commits intomainfrom
tax-unit-files-taxes
Feb 8, 2026
Merged

Add tax filing propensity variables#7333
MaxGhenis merged 5 commits intomainfrom
tax-unit-files-taxes

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Summary

Refactor tax_unit_is_filer to use explicit propensity variables from microdata, enabling better calibration to SOI filer counts and policy reforms that affect filing incentives.

Changes

New variables

  • tax_unit_is_required_to_file: Rules-based filing requirement from IRC § 6012 (income thresholds)
  • eligible_for_refundable_credits: Whether tax unit would receive EITC or refundable CTC
  • would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit: Input variable (~83% default) for propensity to file when eligible for credits
  • would_file_taxes_voluntarily: Input variable (default False) for propensity to file without requirement or credit eligibility

Updated tax_unit_is_filer

Now uses three-part logic:

  1. Required to file (income thresholds)
  2. Eligible for refundable credits AND would file to claim them
  3. Would file voluntarily (state requirements, habit, documentation)

Motivation

This supports better calibration to SOI filer counts, especially for low-income filers who:

  • File to claim refundable credits (EITC, CTC)
  • File voluntarily for state requirements, documentation, or habit

See #4283 and #4286 for background discussion.

Related PRs

Test plan

  • Unit tests for all four filing scenarios pass

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

MaxGhenis and others added 3 commits February 7, 2026 18:02
- Add would_file_taxes_voluntarily input variable for tax units that file
  for reasons other than being required or seeking refundable credits
- Update tax_unit_is_filer to use propensity variables from microdata:
  - required_to_file (income thresholds from IRC § 6012)
  - takes_up_eitc (refund-seeking behavior)
  - would_file_taxes_voluntarily (state requirements, documentation, habit)

Closes #4286

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Add tax_unit_is_required_to_file for rules-based filing requirement
- Add eligible_for_refundable_credits to check EITC/CTC eligibility
- Add would_file_if_eligible_for_refundable_credit propensity variable
- Update tax_unit_is_filer to use three-part logic:
  1. Required to file (income thresholds)
  2. Eligible for refundable credits AND would file to claim them
  3. Would file voluntarily (state requirements, habit, documentation)

This separates the refundable credit eligibility check from the propensity
to file, enabling policy reforms that change credit eligibility to affect
filing behavior.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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codecov bot commented Feb 7, 2026

Codecov Report

✅ All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests.
✅ Project coverage is 100.00%. Comparing base (a46b5a8) to head (db767d1).
⚠️ Report is 26 commits behind head on main.

Additional details and impacted files
@@             Coverage Diff              @@
##             main     #7333       +/-   ##
============================================
+ Coverage   86.56%   100.00%   +13.43%     
============================================
  Files          12         5        -7     
  Lines         134        63       -71     
============================================
- Hits          116        63       -53     
+ Misses         18         0       -18     
Flag Coverage Δ
unittests 100.00% <100.00%> (+13.43%) ⬆️

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- Use 0 for exemption_amount when personal exemption is suspended (2018+)
  to match the old tax_unit_is_filer logic
- Simplify eligible_for_refundable_credits: eitc + refundable_ctc > 0

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis merged commit 4b1998c into main Feb 8, 2026
9 checks passed
@MaxGhenis MaxGhenis deleted the tax-unit-files-taxes branch February 8, 2026 04:15
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