Marketing Campaign Analysis: Facebook vs. AdWords

📌 Business Problem
As a marketing agency, our primary objective is to maximize the ROI for our clients' advertising campaigns. We conducted two separate campaigns on Facebook and Google AdWords throughout 2019. This analysis determines which platform yields better results in terms of clicks, conversions, and overall cost-effectiveness to optimize resource allocation.

🔍 Research Question
Which Ad Platform is more effective in driving clicks and conversions while maintaining a high level of cost-efficiency?

The dataset contains 365 daily records for 2019 including:

• Metrics: User Engagement (Clicks), Customer Acquisition (Conversions), Cost Effectiveness (CPC and ROI)
• Derived KPIs: CTR, Conversion Rate, CPC.

🛠️ Tech Stack & Libraries

• Data Manipulation: Pandas, NumPy
• Visualization: Matplotlib, Seaborn
• Statistical Analysis: SciPy (T-Tests), Statsmodels (Cointegration/Time Series)
• Machine Learning: Scikit-learn (Linear Regression)

📊 Key Findings

1. Platform Performance: Facebook demonstrated superior scalability. While AdWords remained stagnant in the "Low" to "Moderate" conversion categories, Facebook frequently achieved "High" conversion days (15+ daily actions).
2. Correlation & Predictability: Facebook (r = 0.87): Exhibits a strong linear relationship between clicks and sales, making it highly predictable for scaling. AdWords (r = 0.45): Shows moderate correlation, suggesting that increased clicks do not consistently translate to conversions.
3. Statistical Significance (A/B Testing): A formal T-Test confirmed that Facebook’s average conversion rate (11.74) is nearly double that of AdWords (5.98).
   • P-Value: 9.35 x $10^{-134}$
   • Result: The performance gap is statistically significant and not due to random chance.
4. Predictive Modeling & ROI Regression Accuracy: Our model achieved a 76.35% $R^2$ score, allowing for accurate forecasting of conversions based on click volume.
5. Long-term Stability: Cointegration tests ($p < 0.05$) prove a stable, long-term equilibrium between spend and conversions on Facebook.
6. Temporal Trends Peak Days: Mondays and Tuesdays yield the highest engagement.
7. Cost Efficiency: May and November are the most cost-effective months with the lowest Cost Per Conversion (CPC).

💡Strategic Recommendations

• Reallocate Budget: Shift primary funding toward Facebook, as it demonstrates a higher and more stable conversion floor.
• Optimize Schedule: Increase bidding strategies on Mondays and Tuesdays to capitalize on peak engagement windows.
• Scale Informedly: Use the linear regression model to set realistic KPIs for Facebook campaigns (e.g., target 80 clicks to achieve ~18 conversions).
• AdWords Review: Investigate the low click-to-conversion correlation on AdWords; consider refining keyword match types or landing page relevance.