Super Rugby Pacific final standings simulator

Monte Carlo simulation using discrete ladder-point outcomes, and a simplified points differential as tie-breaker. Developed by Dimitri Perrin.

Model

• Current competition points are taken from data/standings.csv.
• Remaining fixtures are taken from data/fixtures.csv.
• Each match is simulated using a 12-outcome ladder-point distribution:
  • home win with/without try bonus and losing bonus
  • away win with/without try bonus and losing bonus
  • draw with/without try bonuses
• Tie-breakers are applied after competition points in this order:
  1. total number of wins
  2. points differential (PD)
• PD is simplified: when a team wins, their PD increases by 1, and if they lose it decreases by 1.
• Rows are sorted by expected final finishing position.

Run locally

pip install -r requirements.txt
streamlit run app.py

Deployed version

You can access the deployed version here: https://ladder-simulator.streamlit.app/