Update natural gas regression parameters with AEO 2026 data

aeo_updates/natural_gas_price_regression/.gitignore

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+# Python cache
+__pycache__/
+*.pyc
+
+# Visualization outputs (PNGs, PDFs)
+*.png
+*.pdf
+
+# Validation and visualization results (all generated output)
+results validation/
+
+# Raw API data dumps (reproducible from EIA API)
+outputs of alpha regression/raw_aeo_data/
+outputs of beta regression/raw_aeo_data/
+
+# Beta raw data visualization subfolder
+outputs of beta regression/bata raw data visualization/
+
+# Beta regression intermediate outputs (keep cd_beta0.csv, national_beta.csv, beta_regression_summary.csv)
+outputs of beta regression/regression_points.csv
+outputs of beta regression/alpha_from_beta_by_scenario.csv
+outputs of beta regression/alpha_from_beta_regression.csv
+outputs of beta regression/alpha from beta regression/
+
+# Notebook checkpoints
+.ipynb_checkpoints/
+
+# Stale nested duplicate directory
+AEO_Updates/
+
+# Old scripts (replaced by visualization.py)
+results_visualization.py
+results_validation.py
+beta_raw_data_visualization.py

aeo_updates/natural_gas_price_regression/README.md

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+# Natural Gas Price Regression
+
+This folder has the natural gas update workflow for ReEDS.
+
+## Model Note
+
+`alpha` differs by step:
+
+- Beta step (`alpha1`) is `alpha1(region, year)` and is shared across scenarios.
+- Alpha step (`alpha2`) is `alpha2(region, year, scenario)`, so each output
+  scenario has its own alpha path.
+
+## Prerequisites
+
+### EIA API Key
+
+The pipeline fetches data from the EIA API and requires an API key. Set it as an environment variable before running:
+
+**Windows (persistent — open a new terminal after running):**
+```cmd
+setx EIA_API_KEY your_api_key_here
+```
+
+**Windows (current session only):**
+```cmd
+set EIA_API_KEY=your_api_key_here
+```
+
+**macOS/Linux:**
+```bash
+export EIA_API_KEY=your_api_key_here
+```
+
+> The key is read from the `EIA_API_KEY` environment variable. Do **not** hardcode it in `aeo_pipeline_config.json`.
+
+## Run order
+
+1. Edit `aeo_pipeline_config.json` with your settings.
+
+2. Run **beta regression first**.
+
+```bash
+python aeo_beta_regression.py --config aeo_pipeline_config.json
+```
+
+3. Sync beta outputs into alpha inputs.
+
+```bash
+python sync_beta_to_alpha_inputs.py --config aeo_pipeline_config.json
+```
+
+4. Run **alpha regression**.
+
+```bash
+python aeo_alpha_regression.py --config aeo_pipeline_config.json
+```
+
+5. Generate all diagnostic plots and validation.
+
+```bash
+python visualization.py --config aeo_pipeline_config.json
+```
+
+Skip individual parts with flags:
+```bash
+python visualization.py --skip-raw-scatter --skip-validation
+```
+
+Default output folder: `results validation` (all plots and validation CSVs).
+
+## Scenario Configuration
+
+Set explicit scenarios in `aeo_pipeline_config.json` under `scenarios`:
+
+- `scenarios.beta_regression.include`: scenarios used to estimate beta.
+- `scenarios.alpha_regression.fetch`: scenarios fetched for alpha preprocessing.
+- `scenarios.alpha_regression.outputs`: mapping from output suffix (`reference`, `HOG`, `LOG`, etc.) to scenario aliases.
+
+Use canonical IDs (for example `ref{aeo_year}`, `highogs`, `lowogs`) for a clear setup.
+
+## One-command batch (Windows)
+
+```bat
+run_ng_pipeline.bat
+```
+
+Optional custom config:
+
+```bat
+run_ng_pipeline.bat my_config.json
+```