PolicyEngine · vahid-ahmadi · May 27, 2026 · May 27, 2026
diff --git a/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md b/changelog.d/1008-regional-childcare-plan.md
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+- Add a regional childcare programmes planning docs page at `docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md` enumerating the Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland childcare schemes not yet modelled (Scottish eligible-2yo strand, SAAS grants; Welsh Childcare Offer, Flying Start, Welsh student grants; NI Pre-school Education Programme, Sure Start, NI student grants) and the per-programme implementation pattern that complements the #1644 audit.
diff --git a/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md b/docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md
@@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
+# Regional childcare programmes (planned)
+
+```{warning}
+**Partially modelled.** PolicyEngine UK models the **England** funded
+childcare programmes (Universal, Extended and Targeted Childcare
+Entitlements; Care to Learn; Student Finance England Childcare Grant)
+and the **UK-wide** Tax-Free Childcare scheme. The devolved
+administrations operate parallel schemes that are not yet modelled
+beyond the Scottish Universal Funded ELC for 3- and 4-year-olds added
+in [#1643][pr-1643]. This page captures the proposed scope, tracked
+under [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008)
+and the broader [#1644 audit](./../../../programs.yaml).
+```
+
+## What's modelled today
+
+The current childcare coverage is captured in `programs.yaml` (see the
+[#1644 split into per-programme rows][issue-1644]) and works as follows:
+
+- **UK-wide**: Tax-Free Childcare (HMRC); Universal Credit childcare
+  element (DWP); Working Tax Credit childcare element (DWP, legacy, see
+  [tax-credits.md](./../dwp/tax-credits.md)).
+- **England-only** (gate on `country == ENGLAND`):
+  Universal Childcare Entitlement (15h), Extended Childcare Entitlement
+  (30h working parents), Targeted Childcare Entitlement (disadvantaged
+  2-year-olds + working families with younger children), Care to Learn,
+  Student Finance England Childcare Grant.
+- **Scotland**: Universal Funded ELC for 3- and 4-year-olds (1,140
+  hrs/year) added in [#1643][pr-1643].
+- **Wales, Northern Ireland**: no programmes modelled.
+
+## Proposed scope by jurisdiction
+
+### Scotland — three remaining strands
+
+The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] flagged three Scottish gaps:
+
+1. **Eligible-two-year-old strand** of the funded ELC programme
+   (vulnerable / low-income 2-year-olds under the
+   [Provision of Early Learning and Childcare (Specified Children)
+   (Scotland) Order 2014][sssi-196-2014]). Modelled the same way as the
+   3- and 4-year-old strand but gated on a means test against UC /
+   tax credits / equivalent qualifying benefits.
+2. **Student Awards Agency Scotland (SAAS) Lone Parents' Grant,
+   Dependants' Grant, and Childcare Fund** for full-time HE students
+   — the Scottish equivalent of Student Finance England's Childcare
+   Grant. Income-tested, paid at standard weekly rates.
+3. **Scottish EMA-equivalent** for young parents in further education
+   (the [Educational Maintenance Allowance][saas-ema] is paid by local
+   authorities in Scotland under SAAS oversight; the childcare-support
+   layer parallels Care to Learn in England).
+
+### Wales
+
+The audit identified four Welsh programmes:
+
+1. **Childcare Offer for Wales** — 30 hours/week for working parents
+   of 3- and 4-year-olds (term-time + a portion of holiday weeks).
+   Modelled the same as the English Extended Childcare Entitlement
+   with Welsh-specific income tests and hour caps. Statutory basis:
+   [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act].
+2. **Flying Start** — universal preschool offer in disadvantaged areas
+   for 2- and 3-year-olds (12.5 hours/week). Geographic eligibility
+   based on lower-super-output-area data.
+3. **Student Finance Wales Childcare Grant** — parallel to the English
+   Childcare Grant.
+4. **Welsh EMA** — parallel to Scottish EMA.
+
+### Northern Ireland
+
+The audit identified four NI programmes:
+
+1. **Pre-school Education Programme (PSEP)** — 12.5 hours/week for 3-
+   and 4-year-olds. Universal.
+2. **Sure Start** — younger disadvantaged children (2-3yo).
+3. **Student Finance NI Childcare Grant**.
+4. **NI EMA**.
+
+## Implementation outline
+
+For each new programme:
+
+- New parameter tree under `parameters/gov/<region>/<programme>/`
+  capturing the income tests, hours offered, and weekly funding rates.
+- New variable(s) under `variables/gov/<region>/<programme>/` gated on
+  the appropriate `country == ...` check.
+- A `<programme>_eligible` companion variable that the new programme
+  variable composes with the rate parameter — same pattern as the
+  English entitlement trio.
+- A `programs.yaml` row per programme, bound to the new variable and
+  parameter prefix.
+
+### Structural items deferred to this work
+
+The [#1644 audit][issue-1644] also flagged two structural items that
+become more pressing once the regional programmes land:
+
+- `weeks_per_year` and `childcare_funding_rate` currently sit at
+  `gov.dfe.*` root but encode English term-week and funding-rate
+  assumptions. They should be regionalised (e.g.
+  `gov.scotland.elc.weeks_per_year`) once the Scotland / Wales / NI
+  programmes are modelled.
+- No aggregating variable across programmes exists (e.g. "total
+  subsidised childcare hours per child per week"). The API surfaces
+  the per-programme variables but can't answer "what's this family's
+  combined childcare support" without the caller summing.
+
+Both belong in a separate cleanup PR rather than mixed into the
+per-programme work.
+
+## Data needs
+
+Most regional programmes are point-in-time per-hour funding rather
+than per-household payments, so the data side is comparatively easy:
+
+- **FRS** provides `region` and `country` at the household level —
+  enough to gate eligibility.
+- **Welsh Government Statistical Bulletins** publish Flying Start
+  and Childcare Offer caseloads by local authority.
+- **Scottish Government Childcare and Early Years statistics** provide
+  Scottish funded ELC caseloads.
+- **Department of Education NI** publishes PSEP caseloads.
+- The SAAS / Student Finance Wales / NI Childcare Grants need the same
+  treatment as the English `childcare_grant` — calibration against
+  published award totals.
+
+The aggregating challenge is choosing whether to expose **subsidised
+hours** or **subsidised cost** as the primary household-level
+variable. Recommendation: subsidised cost, since that's what flows
+through to `household_market_income` and the UC childcare element
+disregards.
+
+## Open questions
+
+- Should the Scottish ELC universal strand and the eligible-two-year-old
+  strand be modelled as two separate variables (matching how England
+  splits Universal / Extended / Targeted), or as one variable with the
+  age-and-eligibility logic inside? Recommendation: separate, mirroring
+  the English pattern for queryability.
+- Welsh Flying Start is geographic. Do we have a postcode-to-LSOA
+  cross-walk in the FRS pipeline?
+- All four EMA / EMA-equivalent schemes are now extinct in England but
+  still operational in the devolved nations. Should they be modelled
+  under the existing `gov.dfe.care_to_learn` umbrella or as separate
+  regional schemes?
+
+## References
+
+- Audit: [#1644](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644) — full childcare coverage audit.
+- Tracking: [#1008](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1008) — original Scotland/Wales/NI gap report.
+- Recent landed work: [#1643][pr-1643] — Scottish Universal Funded ELC.
+- Existing England docs (for the pattern to mirror): the entitlement variables under [`policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe/`](../../../../policyengine_uk/variables/gov/dfe).
+- Welsh childcare statute: [Childcare Funding (Wales) Act 2019][wales-act].
+- Scottish eligible-2-year-old statute: [SSSI 2014/196][sssi-196-2014].
+
+[issue-1644]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/issues/1644
+[pr-1643]: https://github.com/PolicyEngine/policyengine-uk/pull/1643
+[wales-act]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/anaw/2019/1/contents
+[sssi-196-2014]: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ssi/2014/196/contents/made
+[saas-ema]: https://www.saas.gov.uk/funding/maintenance-allowance
Original file line number	Diff line number	Diff line change
		@@ -0,0 +1 @@
		- Add a regional childcare programmes planning docs page at `docs/book/programs/gov/dfe/regional-childcare-plan.md` enumerating the Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland childcare schemes not yet modelled (Scottish eligible-2yo strand, SAAS grants; Welsh Childcare Offer, Flying Start, Welsh student grants; NI Pre-school Education Programme, Sure Start, NI student grants) and the per-programme implementation pattern that complements the #1644 audit.