Assignment 1 - Practice Designing Models

• Participant name: Jihye Song
• Project Title: Smart Orlando Reusable Bag System (SmartORBS)

General Introduction

A smart city is an urban area that uses different types of electronic data collection sensors to supply information which is used to manage assets and resources efficiently.

Single-use plastic (e.g., shopping bags, beverage containers, straws) pose a threat to the environment and public health. Plastic bags are particularly problematic because they are not accepted by Orlando's recycling program and must be taken to a designated location that accepts plastic bags for recycling, which makes recycling difficult and inconvenient. Discarded plastic contributes to pollution and threatens ecosystems including oceans. Plastic pollution also poses a threat to human health, given plastic particles find their way in marine animals or vegetables that are then consumed by humans. Americans use 100 billion plastic shopping bags a year, many of which end up in landfills (https://www.nrdc.org/media/2008/080109). Cutting down plastic bag use can significantly reduce landfill waste and pollution.

Arguably, the most effective way to drastically reduce plastic bag consumption is through legislation, i.e., banning plastic bags. Such measures have cut down on plastic bag use in US cities and states (http://www.ncsl.org/research/environment-and-natural-resources/plastic-bag-legislation.aspx#Bans). However, plastic bag bans may not succeed, either because they do not pass due to lack of support, or if they are implemented, they may face opposition from consumers. For example, Chicago repealed its plastic bag ban in favor of a tax after consumer opposition (http://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/os-ed-plastic-bag-ban-guest-editorial-20170327-story.html). Without legislation or mandated taxes, stores can take on a key role in reducing demand for plastic bags by encouraging consumers to be more proactive in their voluntary sustainability efforts. Some stores, like Target and Whole Foods, already offer financial incentives for bringing reusable bags (e.g., 5 to 10 cents per bag). Additionally, Whole Foods only uses paper bags at checkout counters, eliminating them as an option. Stores can influence consumer behavior without requiring lawmakers to step in.

One potential approach is a sharing program. Sharing programs have been implemented to promote sustainability, convenience, and health in other ways, such as car sharing (http://www.zipcar.com/carsharing) and bike sharing (https://juicebikeshare.com/). However, before starting a sharing program, it is necessary to consider potential unintended consequences, like theft. In China, a start-up umbrella-sharing company reported losing almost all of the 300,000 umbrellas they offered for participants (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/07/12/a-chinese-umbrella-sharing-start-up-just-lost-nearly-all-of-its-300000-umbrellas/?utm_term=.c397e1aa9189). Because bags, like umbrellas, are small and easier to steal or lose than cars, it is worth considering a tracking system and incentive program to motivate customers not only to participate, but to return bags to reduce loss. To address the issue of motivation and theft/loss, a system can be developed to track bags and link them to customers, and to integrate gamification into the program to increase motivation and engagement with the program. Apps to promote sustainable behavior have been developed (e.g., https://www.oroeco.com/); this project will (eventually) include a mobile app designed to support an automated reusable bag management system that uses gamification to motivate customers to participate.

Requirements (Experimental Design)

Given the threat of plastic pollution and the potential benefits of switching to more sustainable alternatives, efforts to reduce plastic use in communities could have a beneficial impact on the environment. However, reusable shopping bags may not be used regularly by consumers despite widespread availability. Barriers to regular use may include having to purchase bags. However, relatively inexpensive bags are offered by stores, and even if consumers purchase reusable bags, they must remember to bring them to the store when they shop. Additionally, used bags harbor bacteria and consumers typically do not keep up with cleaning. Thus, despite a desire to reduce plastic bag use, reusable bags are less convenient than disposable alternatives and unless motivation to use them is high, consumers may continue to use plastic bags even if they are aware of the harmful effects of plastic waste on the environment. A smart reusable bag management system will provide a solution by making reusable bags more convenient to use, and by motivating consumers to participate using gamification.

The Smart Orlando Reusable Bag System shall:

• Automatically manage supply of reusable bags in circulation

  • Track location of each bag (both geographical location and which customer currently has which bag), as well as its condition
  • Clean used bags to reduce threats to health due to bacteria
  • Detect amount of bags needed by each store and deliver required number of bags
  • Detect when bags are at the end of their life cycle and remove them from circulation by composting them

• Only produce the amount of new bags required to meet demand to reduce waste

• The system will also include an automated delivery system to ensure bags are transported on time as needed

  • Autonomous bag transporting vehicles will collect dirty bags to deliver to Bag HQ, and deliver clean bags to stores

Additionally, the system will include a mobile app to engage participating customers. The app (and user interface at kiosks and stores) shall:

• Provide customers with up-to-date information about their bag use (updated once a day)
  • Remind customers to return used bags
  • Provide visualization of environmental impact (e.g., number of plastic bags kept out of the environment, carbon footprint, etc.)
  • Offer incentives to participate, including:
    • Points
    • Leaderboards to compete with friends
    • Discounts and coupons from the store based on participation

Given some input, like customer information, store size, bag quantity, etc., the system will perform the above functions in order to maintain a steady supply of usable bags while maintaining customer interest. Essentially, the system shall increase reusable bag use in participating stores relative to similarly-sized stores without the program. The system shall maintain adequate supply of bags (i.e., stores will not run out and new bags will be created when necessary)to ensure bags are always available for customers.

Null hypothesis 1(H₀1): The smart reusable bag management system will not increase consumers' use of reusable shopping bags.
Alternate Hypothesis 1(H_A1): The smart reusable bag management system will increase consumers' use of reusable shopping bags.

Null hypothesis 2(H₀2): The smart reusable bag management system will not maintain sufficient supplies at each store (i.e., greater than or equal to the number of bags used by customers at a store).
Alternate Hypothesis 2 (H_A2): The smart reusable bag management system will maintain sufficient supplies at each store (i.e., greater than or equal to the number of bags used by customers at a store).

Null hypothesis 3(H₀3): The smart reusable bag management system will retain more customer participants with a persuasive mobile app compared to the same system without the app.
Alternate Hypothesis 3 (H_A3): The smart reusable bag management system will retain more customer participants with a persuasive mobile app compared to the same system without the app).

The success of this system relies on efficient management of supplies, as well as an understanding of consumer behavior. The present model focuses on designing an automated inventory management system to provide a supply of clean bags to stores.

Smart City SmartORBS Model

At a high level, the main parts of the model involve a delivery system using autonomous vehicles, an inventory management system that produces, cleans, distributes, and composts bags, and a motivational mobile app designed to encourage customers to participate in the reusable bag program.

To start, the current project focuses on the second part of the system, which manages production, distribution, cleaning, and composting of bags.

The links below depict the components of the system at different levels.

• Object Diagram - provides the high level overview of SmartORBS
• Class Diagram - provides details of SmartORBS inventory management
• Behavior Diagram - provides details of SmartORBS
• Agent / User case - provides details of how a customer interacts with SmartORBS

Smart City SmartORBS Simulation

Analysis overview

The simulation will take initial values, such as a store's traffic, customer demand, and lifespan of an individual bag, and run over a period of time to represent the flow of bags through the system. Initially, customers are randomly assigned attributes like motivation and conscientiousness. Eventually, the simulation will take into account how realistic variations in human decision making and behavior alter their interaction with the system. For example, in an ideal world, the system would run smoothly only producing just as many bags as are composted. However, in real life, bags will likely be lost or stolen, so the simulation will have to account for loss and manage inventory accordingly.

For the inventory management portion of the system, discrete-event based simulation will be used. Inputs include initial values for customers, stores, kiosks, and an initial quantity of bags. Outputs include bag inventory and whether the system adequately supplies bags given factors like damage, loss, and theft. The simulation described here (see SmartORBS simulation) will help determine whether an automated system can keep up with the demand of customers participating in a reusaable bag program. Specifically, the inventory management system will test Hypothesis 2, but as a major part of the overall system, it will also be critical when testing Hypothesis 1.

Smart City SmartORBS Model

Code framework - The link provides information about the beginning stages of simulation development.

Portable Organic Trouble-free Self-watering System (POTS) Model

• POTS Model - for Part 5 of the assignment, the link includes object and class diagrams for POTS (I need one of these systems for my plants, actually).