From e5ca1038890afce849154ccd9ac3a18f88c22379 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Drew Stone Date: Sun, 2 Aug 2026 23:05:11 -0600 Subject: [PATCH 1/3] feat(trace-analysis): family-aware loss decomposition for the OHT2 gap MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit Extend decompose-analyst-loss.mjs with the official positive-runs micro view, gold classes by tool_type, blind reasons (blank vs duplicate), far-miss direction, gold/predicted block shape distributions, a snapFar counterfactual, and a labels-level constant-rule calibration sweep. Decomposition of the cert2 stock runs (committed artifact): the 2x family gap is localization + under-enumeration on 2x-longer trajectories — far holds 47-49% of gold mass vs 14% on mini-SWE, snapFar recovers +32.3pp (OH) / +25.4pp (T2), predicted blocks halve (1.6 vs 3.0 gold blocks/case). --- .../family-gap-decomposition-2026-08-02.md | 213 ++++++++++ benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/README.md | 16 + .../tools/decompose-analyst-loss.mjs | 399 +++++++++++++++--- 3 files changed, 566 insertions(+), 62 deletions(-) create mode 100644 .evolve/family-gap-decomposition-2026-08-02.md diff --git a/.evolve/family-gap-decomposition-2026-08-02.md b/.evolve/family-gap-decomposition-2026-08-02.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..317d3157 --- /dev/null +++ b/.evolve/family-gap-decomposition-2026-08-02.md @@ -0,0 +1,213 @@ +# OpenHands/Terminus2 family gap: measured loss decomposition (cert2 stock runs, 2026-08-02) + +**Verdict: the ~2x family gap (mini-SWE 0.6288 vs OpenHands 0.2896 / Terminus2 0.2162 official micro F1) is a localization-and-enumeration failure on trajectories twice as long, not an input-fidelity or block-shape failure.** +The `far` class — gold steps missed with every citation more than 2 steps away — holds 49% of OpenHands and 47% of Terminus2 gold mass, versus 14% on mini-SWE holdout-2. +Crediting each existing citation to an unmatched gold step at any distance (`snapFar`) recovers official micro F1 to 0.6128 (OH, +32.3pp) and 0.4703 (T2, +25.4pp): the analyst finds real incidents but reports the wrong ones, and reports half as many as the labels contain (1.62/1.66 predicted blocks per run vs 3.0 gold blocks per case; mini-SWE: 2.78 vs 2.93). +Every number below is recomputed from the cert2 stock runs' own observations plus the sealed labels and OTLP traces. +No model was called for this decomposition. + +## Method + +| Item | Value | +| --- | --- | +| Runs | `~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/cert2/stock-oh` and `stock-t2` (glm-5.2, dspy-rlm, 2 repetitions, 32 cases each, 0 failed runs), stock prompt = round-1 GEPA winner | +| mini-SWE reference | `benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-glm52-certified-20260801/result-holdout2.json` (same engine and prompt, holdout-2, official micro F1 0.6288) | +| Labels | `/dev/shm/ctb-openhands-cert32-labels.json` (sha256 `2cf55793…`, 32 rows, 16 labeled, 87 gold steps), `/dev/shm/ctb-terminus2-cert32-labels.json` (sha256 `24e47110…`, 32 rows, 16 labeled, 100 gold steps) — both SPENT for claims, legal for diagnosis | +| Traces | `/dev/shm/ctb-oht2-traces-{openhands,terminus2}`; normalized trees `~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/work/{family}/normalized` | +| Tool | `benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/decompose-analyst-loss.mjs`, extended in this change (official-metric view, tool-type classes, blind reasons, far direction, block shape, constant-rule calibration) | + +Metric reconciliation, verified against the runs' own summaries: `result.summaries[].f1` computes micro precision over **positive (issue-bearing) runs only** — OH 43/123 = 0.3496, T2 40/170 = 0.2353 — reproducing 0.2896 and 0.2162 exactly. +Findings on trusted-negative and unlabeled rows never enter the official metric. +The tool now reports both this official view and the pooled all-runs view, and computes every counterfactual in the official currency. + +Reproduce: + +```bash +node benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/decompose-analyst-loss.mjs \ + --labels /dev/shm/ctb-openhands-cert32-labels.json \ + --traces /dev/shm/ctb-oht2-traces-openhands \ + --normalized ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/work/openhands/normalized \ + --run stock-oh=$HOME/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/cert2/stock-oh --markdown +# same shape for terminus2 and for the mini-SWE holdout-2 reference +``` + +## Result 1 — the three families, same instrument, one table + +Gold-step classes (gold observations = gold steps x 2 repetitions; official micro over positive runs): + +| Family | official F1 | recall | precision | hit (+blindHit) | near | far | silent | blind missed | gold obs | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| mini-SWE holdout-2 | 0.6288 | 0.6622 | 0.5986 | 249 (66.2%) | 30 (8.0%) | 54 (14.4%) | 0 | 43 (11.4%) | 376 | +| OpenHands cert32 | 0.2896 | 0.2471 | 0.3496 | 43 (24.7%) | 27 (15.5%) | 85 (48.9%) | 16 (9.2%) | 3 (1.7%) | 174 | +| Terminus2 cert32 | 0.2162 | 0.2000 | 0.2353 | 40 (20.0%) | 13 (6.5%) | 93 (46.5%) | 20 (10.0%) | 34 (17.0%) | 200 | + +Counterfactual official micro F1, one class neutralised at a time: + +| Counterfactual | mini-SWE h2 | OpenHands | Terminus2 | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| baseline | 0.6288 | 0.2896 | 0.2162 | +| dropBlindGold (blind gold leaves denominator) | 0.6303 (+0.002) | 0.2778 (−0.012) | 0.2381 (+0.022) | +| snapNear (credit citations within ±2) | 0.6616 (+0.033) | 0.3704 (+0.081) | 0.2270 (+0.011) | +| **snapFar (credit any citation, any distance)** | 0.7803 (+0.152) | **0.6128 (+0.323)** | **0.4703 (+0.254)** | +| dropEscaped (suppress self-marked escaped blocks) | 0.5959 (−0.033) | 0.2618 (−0.028) | 0.1557 (−0.061) | +| abstainSolved (report nothing on solved) | 0.5506 (−0.078) | 0.2140 (−0.076) | 0.2114 (−0.005) | + +Reading these: + +- **Localization is the family gap.** Under snapFar, OpenHands lands at 0.6128 — within noise of mini-SWE's shipping baseline (0.6288). The analyst's citations exist; they sit on the wrong incident. +- **Input blindness is not the OH story (−1.2pp) and a minor T2 term (+2.2pp).** All 34 blind T2 gold observations are byte-duplicate keystroke spans (reason `duplicate`; 0 `blank`); none was ever hit. OH has 6 blind gold observations, 3 hit anyway. +- **The mini-SWE M2/M3 conclusions replicate on both new families**: escaped-block suppression and solved-trace abstention lose F1 everywhere. + +## Result 2 — the far class is under-enumeration plus early anchoring + +Predicted block volume and position (positive runs; predicted blocks from the runner's own `block_first_step`/`block_last_step` metadata): + +| Family | predicted blocks/run | gold blocks/case | pred width mean | gold width mean | pred start fraction p50 | gold start fraction p50 | positive-run median step_count | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| mini-SWE h2 | 2.78 | 2.93 | 2.54 | 2.14 | 0.735 | 0.763 | 24 | +| OpenHands | 1.62 | 3.06 | 2.37 | 1.78 | 0.538 | 0.672 | 48 | +| Terminus2 | 1.66 | 3.00 | 3.21 | 2.08 | 0.464 | 0.655 | 48 | + +- **Block shape is NOT the mismatch**: gold widths are 1.8–2.1 everywhere and predicted widths 2.4–3.2 everywhere; the block-shape-mismatch arm candidate is rejected by measurement. +- **Enumeration halves on the long families**: 1.62/1.66 blocks per run against 3.0 in the labels, while mini-SWE matches (2.78 vs 2.93). Recall is capped at ~55% before any localization error. +- **Predictions anchor early**: on OH, 60 of 85 far-missed gold observations have every citation EARLIER than the gold step (17 later, 8 straddling); predicted position p50 0.538 vs gold 0.672. T2: 42 earlier / 37 later / 14 straddling. On mini-SWE the direction is the opposite and small (3 earlier / 46 later) and positions match (0.735 vs 0.763). The analyst reads a 48–95-step trajectory, commits to the first convincing incident, and never reaches the mid-late segment where the labels live. +- Trajectory length is the regime switch: positive-run median step_count doubles (24 → 48). The engine's iteration budget saturates on ALL families (median 14–15 LLM calls per observation everywhere, cap 14), so the same reading budget covers half the trace — saturation alone does not separate the families and raising it alone is not the arm. +- The `silent` class (0 → 9–10%) is the same failure at its extreme: 7 of 8 zero-finding positive runs are solved trajectories where the mid-trace mistake was never reached; each ran 75–163s of real analysis. + +## Result 3 — family-specific defects (measured, smaller than far) + +**OpenHands tool-type table** (gold observations by the normalized step's tool_type): + +| tool_type | gold | hit | near | far | silent | blind | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| run | 92 | 16 | 15 | 53 | 6 | 2 | +| str_replace_editor | 28 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +| edit | 26 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 0 | +| execute_bash | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +| run_ipython | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +| task_tracker | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +| read | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +| think | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | + +- **Whitespace-buried `run` commands are hit 0/28.** 28 of 92 gold `run` observations have an action that is mostly blank lines with the command buried mid-block (faithful rendering of the raw completion; 451/5890 `run` steps corpus-wide), and none was ever matched, versus 16/64 (25%) on clean `run` gold. Upper bound if padded gold hit at the clean rate: ≈ +4pp recall, OH only. +- Non-shell gold (read/think/recall/task_tracker) is 12/174 (6.9%) — action-type confusion alone cannot explain the gap, and Terminus2 (100% shell) shows the same far explosion. +- Diagnostic-looking gold is NOT family-specific: read-only commands (cat/ls/grep/wc/help/kill/…) hold 33% of T2-dev gold but also 35% of mini-SWE holdout-2 gold, where the analyst still scores 0.63. The stock prompt's diagnostic-exclusion doctrine is not the differentiator. +- **Terminus2 duplicate keystrokes**: 34/200 gold observations (17.0%) sit on spans byte-identical to another span in the same session (repeated commands, bare Enter); zero were hit. Worth +2.2pp (dropBlindGold). A citation-disambiguation fix would cap there. + +False positives on label-empty rows (outside the official metric but user-visible in `traces analyze`): OH trusted-negative runs carry 56 findings across 14/28 runs; T2 trusted-negative 52 findings across 12/20 runs; T2 failed-unlabeled rows draw 89 findings over 12 runs. + +## Result 4 — instrument calibration under wider constant rules + +Constant positional rules, official scorer, labeled cases only (tool section `split structure`): + +| Split | n-0 | n-1 | n-2 | last-2 window | best swept rule (shift 0–15, width 1–3) | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | +| OpenHands cert32 | 0.019 | 0.039 | 0.000 | 0.050 | n-6..n-8 → **0.222** | +| Terminus2 cert32 | 0.000 | 0.034 | 0.017 | 0.030 | n-12..n-14 → **0.122** | +| mini-SWE holdout-2 | 0.083 | 0.193 | 0.101 | 0.242 | n-1..n-3 → **0.331** | + +The pre-seal calibration (0.043 OH / 0.024 T2) tested single-step and 2-step rules; a wider 3-step window at fixed offset reaches 0.222 on OH-cert32. +The shipping analyst still beats every constant rule on every split, but the OH margin is only +0.068 (0.2896 vs 0.222) versus +0.298 on mini-SWE — the analyst currently adds almost no localization signal over position priors on OpenHands. +Any future certification on these splits should report the swept-rule margin, not only the single-step rules. + +## Rejected arm candidates (each killed by a measured number above) + +| Candidate | Evidence against | +| --- | --- | +| Input restoration (restore-step-reasoning pattern) | The OHT2 prepare skills already populate `thinking`, and it lands in span content: 230/230 OH and 440/440 T2 sampled steps with thinking carry it in the OTLP span. Blind gold is 1.7% (OH) / 17% (T2, +2.2pp ceiling). | +| Block-shape mismatch | Gold width 1.78/2.08 vs mini-SWE 2.14; predicted widths overlap; positions of gold are family-similar (p50 0.65–0.76). | +| Action-type reframing alone | Non-shell gold is 6.9% of OH mass; T2 is 100% shell with the same far share. | +| Raise iteration budget alone | The budget saturates identically on mini-SWE (median 15 calls/obs, 48/64 at ≥14) where F1 is 0.63. | +| Escape suppression / solved abstention | −2.8 to −6.1pp / −0.5 to −7.6pp measured. | + +## The one arm: family-aware coverage framing (instructions override) + +Target class: `far` + `silent` + under-enumeration — 58% of OH and 57% of T2 gold mass, ceiling +32.3pp / +25.4pp (snapFar). +Change: a family-framing instructions file for `--instructions-file` (mechanism already shipped: `benchmark-instructions-override.ts` binds the override sha into the run's protocol digest). +The file keeps the stock GEPA-winner block doctrine verbatim and adds an evidence-conditioned coverage-and-enumeration section plus the two family grammar notes (OpenHands rendered tool calls with whitespace-buried run commands; Terminus2 duplicate keystokes anchored by surrounding observations, cite the occurrence inside the failing segment). +No step-count or block-count priors: the shape-prior lesson (−10 to −15pp, `.evolve` 2026-07-31) stays enforced. +Smoke pre-registration, gates, and readout: `benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/` (committed before the paid run). + +## Appendix A — per-case table, OpenHands cert32 positive cases (stock arm) + +`classes` lists each gold step and its class; `cited` every step the run accused. + +| case | solved | annotation | steps | gold | input-blind gold | rep | findings | cited | matched | classes | +| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | --- | --- | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-cprofiling-python-591d66e2 | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 30 | 18,20,21,22,23,24 | - | 0 | 4 | 21,22,23,24 | 21,22,23,24 | 18:far 20:near 21:hit 22:hit 23:hit 24:hit | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-cprofiling-python-591d66e2 | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 30 | 18,20,21,22,23,24 | - | 1 | 0 | - | - | 18:silent 20:silent 21:silent 22:silent 23:silent 24:silent | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-db-wal-recovery-644b805f | no | agent_failure_analysis | 48 | 40,41,42,43 | - | 1 | 5 | 4,41,42,43,44 | 41,42,43 | 40:near 41:hit 42:hit 43:hit | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-db-wal-recovery-644b805f | no | agent_failure_analysis | 48 | 40,41,42,43 | - | 0 | 7 | 4,5,6,41,42,43,44 | 41,42,43 | 40:near 41:hit 42:hit 43:hit | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-large-scale-text-editing-796163f1 | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 34 | 7,8,11,12,13 | - | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7:hit 8:near 11:far 12:far 13:far | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-large-scale-text-editing-796163f1 | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 34 | 7,8,11,12,13 | - | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7:hit 8:near 11:far 12:far 13:far | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-parallel-particle-simulator-6cd5c6fc | no | agent_failure_analysis | 45 | 23,25 | - | 0 | 4 | 34,36,37,38 | - | 23:far 25:far | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-parallel-particle-simulator-6cd5c6fc | no | agent_failure_analysis | 45 | 23,25 | - | 1 | 5 | 7,21,22,23,34 | 23 | 23:hit 25:near | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-predict-customer-churn-d58fa4e0 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 25 | 6,8,10,11,13,14,17 | - | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6:hit 8:near 10:far 11:far 13:far 14:far 17:far | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-predict-customer-churn-d58fa4e0 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 25 | 6,8,10,11,13,14,17 | - | 1 | 9 | 8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16 | 8,10,11,13,14 | 6:near 8:hit 10:hit 11:hit 13:hit 14:hit 17:near | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-solana-data-c854dc09 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 52 | 49,51 | - | 0 | 6 | 23,36,46,47,48,50 | - | 49:near 51:near | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-solana-data-c854dc09 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 52 | 49,51 | - | 1 | 4 | 23,48,49,50 | 49 | 49:hit 51:near | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-triton-interpret-1cede581 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 61 | 8,36,37,39,41,42,44 | - | 0 | 6 | 9,10,43,44,45,46 | 44 | 8:near 36:far 37:far 39:far 41:near 42:near 44:hit | +| openhands-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-triton-interpret-1cede581 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 61 | 8,36,37,39,41,42,44 | - | 1 | 7 | 5,6,7,9,43,44,45 | 44 | 8:near 36:far 37:far 39:far 41:near 42:near 44:hit | +| openhands-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-blind-maze-explorer-5x5-3f7ee417 | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 55 | 27,34,39,41 | - | 0 | 0 | - | - | 27:silent 34:silent 39:silent 41:silent | +| openhands-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-blind-maze-explorer-5x5-3f7ee417 | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 55 | 27,34,39,41 | - | 1 | 2 | 41,42 | 41 | 27:far 34:far 39:near 41:hit | +| openhands-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-git-multibranch-0bbc5d81 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 95 | 55,56,57,58,59,76,77,78,79,82,83,87,90 | 79 | 0 | 2 | 5,6 | - | 55:far 56:far 57:far 58:far 59:far 76:far 77:far 78:far 79:blind 82:far 83:far 87:far 90:far | +| openhands-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-git-multibranch-0bbc5d81 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 95 | 55,56,57,58,59,76,77,78,79,82,83,87,90 | 79 | 1 | 2 | 5,6 | - | 55:far 56:far 57:far 58:far 59:far 76:far 77:far 78:far 79:blind 82:far 83:far 87:far 90:far | +| openhands-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-implement-eigenvectors-from-eigenvalues-research-paper-9e960b82 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 68 | 18,19,21,23,24,25,56,57,59,60,62 | - | 0 | 5 | 31,32,33,34,35 | - | 18:far 19:far 21:far 23:far 24:far 25:far 56:far 57:far 59:far 60:far 62:far | +| openhands-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-implement-eigenvectors-from-eigenvalues-research-paper-9e960b82 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 68 | 18,19,21,23,24,25,56,57,59,60,62 | - | 1 | 1 | 35 | - | 18:far 19:far 21:far 23:far 24:far 25:far 56:far 57:far 59:far 60:far 62:far | +| openhands-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-mixed-integer-programming-b8149b32 | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 52 | 33,34,44,45,48 | - | 1 | 2 | 14,25 | - | 33:far 34:far 44:far 45:far 48:far | +| openhands-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-mixed-integer-programming-b8149b32 | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 52 | 33,34,44,45,48 | - | 0 | 3 | 14,25,34 | 34 | 33:near 34:hit 44:far 45:far 48:far | +| openhands-OpenAI__GPT-5-django__django-15930-f153f9fc | yes | merged_cleaned_step25 | 48 | 44,45 | - | 1 | 0 | - | - | 44:silent 45:silent | +| openhands-OpenAI__GPT-5-django__django-15930-f153f9fc | yes | merged_cleaned_step25 | 48 | 44,45 | - | 0 | 2 | 29,30 | - | 44:far 45:far | +| openhands-OpenAI__GPT-5-instance_ansible__ansible-bf98f031f3f5af31a2d78dc2f0a58fe92ebae0bb-v1055803c3a812189a1133297f7f5468579283f86-c62b0ad0 | no | merged_cleaned_step25 | 64 | 33,36,37,50,53,54,55,58,59,61 | 36,61 | 0 | 12 | 33,34,35,36,37,55,56,57,58,59,60,61 | 33,36,37,55,58,59,61 | 33:hit 36:blindHit 37:hit 50:far 53:near 54:near 55:hit 58:hit 59:hit 61:blindHit | +| openhands-OpenAI__GPT-5-instance_ansible__ansible-bf98f031f3f5af31a2d78dc2f0a58fe92ebae0bb-v1055803c3a812189a1133297f7f5468579283f86-c62b0ad0 | no | merged_cleaned_step25 | 64 | 33,36,37,50,53,54,55,58,59,61 | 36,61 | 1 | 6 | 33,34,35,36,55,56 | 33,36,55 | 33:hit 36:blindHit 37:near 50:far 53:near 54:near 55:hit 58:near 59:far 61:blind | +| openhands-OpenAI__GPT-5-matplotlib__matplotlib-26113-3e60723a | yes | merged_cleaned_step25 | 33 | 26,27,28,33 | - | 0 | 0 | - | - | 26:silent 27:silent 28:silent 33:silent | +| openhands-OpenAI__GPT-5-matplotlib__matplotlib-26113-3e60723a | yes | merged_cleaned_step25 | 33 | 26,27,28,33 | - | 1 | 4 | 13,14,15,24 | - | 26:near 27:far 28:far 33:far | +| openhands-OpenAI__GPT-5-mui__material-ui-13534-53934742 | yes | merged_cleaned_step20_three_waves | 30 | 11,12,13 | - | 0 | 4 | 11,12,13,23 | 11,12,13 | 11:hit 12:hit 13:hit | +| openhands-OpenAI__GPT-5-mui__material-ui-13534-53934742 | yes | merged_cleaned_step20_three_waves | 30 | 11,12,13 | - | 1 | 3 | 11,12,13 | 11,12,13 | 11:hit 12:hit 13:hit | +| openhands-OpenAI__GPT-5-sympy__sympy-17318-8d1c8af1 | no | merged_cleaned_step25 | 26 | 13,25 | - | 0 | 14 | 13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26 | 13,25 | 13:hit 25:hit | +| openhands-OpenAI__GPT-5-sympy__sympy-17318-8d1c8af1 | no | merged_cleaned_step25 | 26 | 13,25 | - | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 | 13:hit 25:far | + +## Appendix B — per-case table, Terminus2 cert32 positive cases (stock arm) + +| case | solved | annotation | steps | gold | input-blind gold | rep | findings | cited | matched | classes | +| --- | --- | --- | ---: | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | --- | --- | --- | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-build-linux-kernel-qemu-7699e895 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 81 | 17 | - | 0 | 10 | 54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63 | - | 17:far | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-build-linux-kernel-qemu-7699e895 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 81 | 17 | - | 1 | 1 | 17 | 17 | 17:hit | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-catch-me-if-you-can-d89cfe9a | no | agent_failure_analysis | 68 | 59,61 | - | 0 | 7 | 49,51,59,61,65,67,68 | 59,61 | 59:hit 61:hit | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-catch-me-if-you-can-d89cfe9a | no | agent_failure_analysis | 68 | 59,61 | - | 1 | 12 | 20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31 | - | 59:far 61:far | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-count-dataset-tokens-ad1d3494 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 40 | 36,37,38,39 | - | 1 | 3 | 38,39,40 | 38,39 | 36:near 37:near 38:hit 39:hit | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-count-dataset-tokens-ad1d3494 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 40 | 36,37,38,39 | - | 0 | 2 | 38,39 | 38,39 | 36:near 37:near 38:hit 39:hit | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-download-youtube-402af613 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 35 | 20,21 | - | 0 | 5 | 24,25,26,27,28 | - | 20:far 21:far | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-download-youtube-402af613 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 35 | 20,21 | - | 1 | 10 | 24,25,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35 | - | 20:far 21:far | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-get-bitcoin-nodes-34b1eb45 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 21 | 9 | - | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 9:hit | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-get-bitcoin-nodes-34b1eb45 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 21 | 9 | - | 1 | 4 | 9,10,11,12 | 9 | 9:hit | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-logistic-regression-divergence-0b8df7b3 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 27 | 6,8 | - | 0 | 5 | 3,6,8,11,15 | 6,8 | 6:hit 8:hit | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-logistic-regression-divergence-0b8df7b3 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 27 | 6,8 | - | 1 | 17 | 2,3,6,7,8,9,11,12,15,16,19,20,21,22,23,24,25 | 6,8 | 6:hit 8:hit | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-make-mips-interpreter-35ea4c65 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 61 | 41,42,43,46,47,48,49,52,53,54,55 | - | 1 | 9 | 52,53,54,55,56,58,59,60,61 | 52,53,54,55 | 41:far 42:far 43:far 46:far 47:far 48:far 49:far 52:hit 53:hit 54:hit 55:hit | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-make-mips-interpreter-35ea4c65 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 61 | 41,42,43,46,47,48,49,52,53,54,55 | - | 0 | 17 | 32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,46,47,48,49,50,58,59,60,61 | 46,47,48,49 | 41:near 42:far 43:far 46:hit 47:hit 48:hit 49:hit 52:near 53:far 54:far 55:far | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-parallel-particle-simulator-56d1327d | no | agent_failure_analysis | 107 | 59,60,61,63,64 | - | 1 | 5 | 2,3,105,106,107 | - | 59:far 60:far 61:far 63:far 64:far | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-parallel-particle-simulator-56d1327d | no | agent_failure_analysis | 107 | 59,60,61,63,64 | - | 0 | 1 | 2 | - | 59:far 60:far 61:far 63:far 64:far | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-parallelize-graph-619aaf8f | no | agent_failure_analysis | 47 | 13,14,15,16,17,18,19 | - | 0 | 8 | 39,40,41,43,44,45,46,47 | - | 13:far 14:far 15:far 16:far 17:far 18:far 19:far | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-parallelize-graph-619aaf8f | no | agent_failure_analysis | 47 | 13,14,15,16,17,18,19 | - | 1 | 4 | 15,16,17,44 | 15,16,17 | 13:near 14:near 15:hit 16:hit 17:hit 18:near 19:near | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-pytorch-model-cli-3c920ed8 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 20 | 7,8,9 | - | 0 | 4 | 5,6,7,8 | 7,8 | 7:hit 8:hit 9:near | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-pytorch-model-cli-3c920ed8 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 20 | 7,8,9 | - | 1 | 5 | 5,6,7,8,9 | 7,8,9 | 7:hit 8:hit 9:hit | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-rstan-to-pystan-6adcbc5e | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 38 | 7,20,21,22 | - | 0 | 0 | - | - | 7:silent 20:silent 21:silent 22:silent | +| terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-rstan-to-pystan-6adcbc5e | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 38 | 7,20,21,22 | - | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 7:hit 20:far 21:far 22:far | +| terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-fix-git-bbd1fcbd | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 49 | 12,17,18,19,20,21 | 12,17,18,20,21 | 0 | 0 | - | - | 12:blind 17:blind 18:blind 19:silent 20:blind 21:blind | +| terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-fix-git-bbd1fcbd | yes | agent_failure_analysis | 49 | 12,17,18,19,20,21 | 12,17,18,20,21 | 1 | 0 | - | - | 12:blind 17:blind 18:blind 19:silent 20:blind 21:blind | +| terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-leelachess0-pytorch-conversion-a0b986ad | no | agent_failure_analysis | 200 | 131,134,135,136,137,139,141,195,197,199 | - | 1 | 2 | 147,150 | - | 131:far 134:far 135:far 136:far 137:far 139:far 141:far 195:far 197:far 199:far | +| terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-leelachess0-pytorch-conversion-a0b986ad | no | agent_failure_analysis | 200 | 131,134,135,136,137,139,141,195,197,199 | - | 0 | 16 | 8,9,10,112,113,131,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139,140,141 | 131,134,135,136,137,139,141 | 131:hit 134:hit 135:hit 136:hit 137:hit 139:hit 141:hit 195:far 197:far 199:far | +| terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-organization-json-generator-30fb23d8 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 20 | 9 | - | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 9:hit | +| terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-organization-json-generator-30fb23d8 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 20 | 9 | - | 0 | 12 | 9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20 | 9 | 9:hit | +| terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-overfull-hbox-c11dbef0 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 191 | 91,92,93,94,123,125,126,127,128,139,140,142,144,149,150 | - | 1 | 6 | 84,85,86,87,88,109 | - | 91:far 92:far 93:far 94:far 123:far 125:far 126:far 127:far 128:far 139:far 140:far 142:far 144:far 149:far 150:far | +| terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-overfull-hbox-c11dbef0 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 191 | 91,92,93,94,123,125,126,127,128,139,140,142,144,149,150 | - | 0 | 1 | 37 | - | 91:far 92:far 93:far 94:far 123:far 125:far 126:far 127:far 128:far 139:far 140:far 142:far 144:far 149:far 150:far | +| terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-protocol-analysis-rs-f24dfce5 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 229 | 92,93,96,100,101,103,107,108,109,111,112,113,114,116,196,199,201,202,204,209,211,212,213,214,215,217 | 93,96,101,103,113,114,116,199,204,209,212,214 | 1 | 1 | 215 | 215 | 92:far 93:blind 96:blind 100:far 101:blind 103:blind 107:far 108:far 109:far 111:far 112:far 113:blind 114:blind 116:blind 196:far 199:blind 201:far 202:far 204:blind 209:blind 211:far 212:blind 213:near 214:blind 215:hit 217:near | +| terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-protocol-analysis-rs-f24dfce5 | no | agent_failure_analysis | 229 | 92,93,96,100,101,103,107,108,109,111,112,113,114,116,196,199,201,202,204,209,211,212,213,214,215,217 | 93,96,101,103,113,114,116,199,204,209,212,214 | 0 | 0 | - | - | 92:silent 93:blind 96:blind 100:silent 101:blind 103:blind 107:silent 108:silent 109:silent 111:silent 112:silent 113:blind 114:blind 116:blind 196:silent 199:blind 201:silent 202:silent 204:blind 209:blind 211:silent 212:blind 213:silent 214:blind 215:silent 217:silent | + +## Threats to validity + +- cert32 splits are SPENT for certification claims; every number here is diagnosis, not a certified score. +- 16 positive cases per family; per-class counts are 13–93 gold observations, so single-case swings move class shares by up to ±6pp. +- `far` conflates "wrong incident" and "annotation labels a different real incident than the model's real incident"; the qualitative reads (django-15930, mixed-integer-programming, parallel-particle-simulator) show the model's far accusations are usually themselves genuine mistakes the labels do not mark. The metric is fidelity to CodeTraceBench's annotation, not ground truth about the trajectory. +- The whitespace-padding hit-rate comparison (0/28 vs 16/64) is not length-controlled; padded actions may correlate with harder cases. +- The constant-rule sweep reuses the labels it is scored on (in-sample by construction); it calibrates the instrument, it is not an analyst. diff --git a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/README.md b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/README.md index 4b750b5b..047d507c 100644 --- a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/README.md +++ b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/README.md @@ -40,3 +40,19 @@ node benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/compare-analyst-runs.mjs \ Recomputes the artifact's `summaries`, `comparisons`, and `codeTraceCalibration` from its own `observations` and prints MATCH/MISMATCH per field (exit 1 on any mismatch). Comparison CIs use the artifact's recorded `provenance.runnerOrderSeed`, so `intervalLow`/`intervalHigh` reproduce exactly; `--seed` overrides it when checking a foreign artifact. + +## decompose-analyst-loss.mjs + +Decomposes a CodeTraceBench run's micro-F1 loss per gold step and per finding, from the run's own observations plus the split's labels and OTLP traces — no model calls. +Full class definitions live in the tool's header (`--help`). + +```bash +node benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/decompose-analyst-loss.mjs \ + --labels LABELS.json --traces TRACE_DIR \ + [--normalized NORMALIZED_ROOT] \ + --run LABEL=PATH [--run LABEL2=PATH2 ...] [--runner ID] [--markdown] [--json] +``` + +- Reports the official micro view (precision over labelState-`positive` runs, matching `result.summaries[].f1` on splits that carry label-empty rows) beside the pooled all-runs view; counterfactuals (`dropBlindGold`, `snapNear`, `snapFar`, `dropEscaped`, `abstainSolved`) accumulate in the official currency. +- `--normalized` points at the split's normalized trees (`/steps.json`) and adds gold classes per `tool_type` plus thinking-presence counts. +- The `split structure` section needs no run: gold block width/position distributions and the constant positional rule calibration (`n-0`/`n-1`/`n-2`/last-2 window plus a shift 0–15 x width 1–3 sweep) scored against the official scorer on labeled cases. diff --git a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/decompose-analyst-loss.mjs b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/decompose-analyst-loss.mjs index 2913a3d7..fe5309d0 100644 --- a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/decompose-analyst-loss.mjs +++ b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/tools/decompose-analyst-loss.mjs @@ -2,26 +2,44 @@ // Decompose analyst micro-F1 loss on a CodeTraceBench run, case by case. // // Every number is recomputed from the run's own observations plus the split's -// labels and OTLP traces — no model calls, no scorer changes. Micro recall = -// sum(matched)/sum(expected), micro precision = sum(supported)/sum(findings), -// micro F1 = harmonic mean, identical to result.summaries[].f1. +// labels and OTLP traces — no model calls, no scorer changes. Two micro views: +// pooled recall = sum(matched)/sum(expected), precision = +// sum(supported)/sum(findings) over every observation. Equals +// result.summaries[].f1 on splits whose rows are all labeled. +// official the same sums restricted to labelState 'positive' observations — +// what result.summaries[].f1 reports on splits that carry +// label-empty rows, where findings on negative rows never enter +// the precision denominator. // // Loss classes per gold step (the analyst's view of a gold step is the OTLP // span it would have to cite): // input-blind the gold span's visible content repeats another span in the // same trace, or carries nothing beyond the harness submit // boilerplate. No analyst can single it out from the trace. +// Split by reason: 'duplicate' vs 'blank' (nothing beyond +// boilerplate — e.g. Terminus2 bare-Enter keystrokes). // hit some finding cites the gold step exactly. // near nearest citation is 1-2 steps away (block boundary error). -// far nearest citation is >2 steps away. +// far nearest citation is >2 steps away, split by direction +// (citations land later vs earlier than the gold step). // silent the run produced no citation anywhere in the trace. // Unsupported findings split into near (<=2 steps from a gold step) and pad // (>2 steps), each also split by the trajectory's solved flag. // -// Counterfactuals recompute micro F1 with one class neutralised at a time. +// Counterfactuals recompute official micro F1 with one class neutralised at a +// time. Block-shape sections compare labeled gold blocks (maximal contiguous +// gold runs) against the run's own predicted blocks +// (metadata.block_first_step/…_last_step). With --normalized, gold classes are +// additionally split by the normalized step's tool_type and thinking presence. +// +// The labels-level calibration section needs no run: it scores the constant +// positional rules from the split3 analysis (accuse step_count-shift, last-2 +// window, and the best rule over a shift 0-15 x width 1-3 sweep) against the +// official scorer on labeled cases, one repetition. // // Usage: // decompose-analyst-loss.mjs --labels LABELS.json --traces TRACE_DIR \ +// [--normalized NORMALIZED_ROOT] \ // --run LABEL=PATH [--run LABEL2=PATH2 ...] [--runner ID] [--markdown] [--json] // // PATH is a run directory, a result.json, or an observations.jsonl. @@ -54,7 +72,15 @@ function printHelp() { } function parseArgs(argv) { - const args = { labels: null, traces: null, runs: [], runner: 'dspy-rlm', markdown: false, json: false } + const args = { + labels: null, + traces: null, + normalized: null, + runs: [], + runner: 'dspy-rlm', + markdown: false, + json: false, + } for (let i = 0; i < argv.length; i++) { const arg = argv[i] const next = () => { @@ -67,6 +93,7 @@ function parseArgs(argv) { process.exit(0) } else if (arg === '--labels') args.labels = next() else if (arg === '--traces') args.traces = next() + else if (arg === '--normalized') args.normalized = next() else if (arg === '--runner') args.runner = next() else if (arg === '--markdown') args.markdown = true else if (arg === '--json') args.json = true @@ -138,6 +165,99 @@ function fmt(value, digits = 4) { return Number.isFinite(value) ? value.toFixed(digits) : 'n/a' } +// Maximal contiguous runs over a sorted array of step ids. +function contiguousBlocks(steps) { + const blocks = [] + for (const step of steps) { + const last = blocks[blocks.length - 1] + if (last && step === last.last + 1) last.last = step + else blocks.push({ first: step, last: step }) + } + return blocks.map((block) => ({ ...block, width: block.last - block.first + 1 })) +} + +function quantile(sorted, q) { + if (sorted.length === 0) return null + const index = (sorted.length - 1) * q + const low = Math.floor(index) + const high = Math.ceil(index) + return sorted[low] + (sorted[high] - sorted[low]) * (index - low) +} + +function distribution(values) { + const sorted = [...values].sort((a, b) => a - b) + const round = (value) => (value === null ? null : Number(value.toFixed(3))) + return { + n: sorted.length, + min: round(sorted[0] ?? null), + p25: round(quantile(sorted, 0.25)), + p50: round(quantile(sorted, 0.5)), + p75: round(quantile(sorted, 0.75)), + max: round(sorted[sorted.length - 1] ?? null), + mean: round(sorted.length === 0 ? null : sorted.reduce((sum, v) => sum + v, 0) / sorted.length), + } +} + +// Per-trajectory normalized step facts: tool_type and thinking presence. +function readNormalizedSteps(root, trajectoryId) { + const path = join(root, trajectoryId, 'steps.json') + const steps = JSON.parse(readFileSync(path, 'utf8')) + const byId = new Map() + for (const step of steps) { + byId.set(Number(step.step_id), { + toolType: step.tool_type ?? inferToolType(step.action), + hasThinking: Boolean(step.thinking), + blankAction: String(step.action ?? '').trim() === '', + }) + } + return byId +} + +// OpenHands actions are rendered tool calls (`read({...})`); Terminus2 actions +// are raw keystrokes. Anything without a call-shaped prefix counts as shell. +function inferToolType(action) { + const match = /^([a-z_][a-z0-9_]*)\(\{/.exec(String(action ?? '').trim()) + return match ? match[1] : 'shell' +} + +// Constant positional rules from the split3 analysis, scored with official +// semantics on labeled cases: one deterministic prediction set per case, +// matched against gold, precision = matched/predicted, recall = matched/gold. +function constantRuleCalibration(labels) { + const labeled = [...labels.values()].filter((row) => goldSteps(row).length > 0) + const score = (predict) => { + let matched = 0 + let expected = 0 + let predicted = 0 + for (const row of labeled) { + const gold = new Set(goldSteps(row)) + expected += gold.size + for (const step of predict(row.step_count)) { + if (step < 1 || step > row.step_count) continue + predicted += 1 + if (gold.has(step)) matched += 1 + } + } + return micro(matched, expected, matched, predicted) + } + const named = { + 'n-0': score((n) => [n]), + 'n-1': score((n) => [n - 1]), + 'n-2': score((n) => [n - 2]), + 'last-2-window': score((n) => [n - 1, n]), + } + let best = { rule: null, f1: -1 } + for (let shift = 0; shift <= 15; shift++) { + for (let width = 1; width <= 3; width++) { + const result = score((n) => Array.from({ length: width }, (_, i) => n - shift - i)) + if (result.f1 > best.f1) { + best = { rule: `accuse steps n-${shift}..n-${shift + width - 1}`, f1: result.f1, ...result } + } + } + } + return { labeledCases: labeled.length, named, best } +} + const args = parseArgs(process.argv.slice(2)) const labelRows = JSON.parse(readFileSync(resolve(args.labels), 'utf8')) const labels = new Map(labelRows.map((row) => [row.traj_id, row])) @@ -158,6 +278,7 @@ for (const [trajectoryId, row] of labels) { for (const text of spans.values()) occurrences.set(text, (occurrences.get(text) ?? 0) + 1) const gold = goldSteps(row) const blind = new Set() + const blindReason = new Map() for (const step of gold) { const text = spans.get(step) ?? '' const beyondBoilerplate = text @@ -165,11 +286,20 @@ for (const [trajectoryId, row] of labels) { .filter((line) => !line.includes(SUBMIT_BOILERPLATE)) .join('\n') .trim() - if ((occurrences.get(text) ?? 0) > 1 || beyondBoilerplate === '') blind.add(step) + if (beyondBoilerplate === '') { + blind.add(step) + blindReason.set(step, 'blank') + } else if ((occurrences.get(text) ?? 0) > 1) { + blind.add(step) + blindReason.set(step, 'duplicate') + } } traceFacts.set(trajectoryId, { gold, + goldBlocks: contiguousBlocks(gold), blind, + blindReason, + normalizedSteps: args.normalized ? readNormalizedSteps(resolve(args.normalized), trajectoryId) : null, stepCount: row.step_count, solved: row.solved === true, annotation: String(row.annotation_relpath ?? '').split('/')[0], @@ -177,16 +307,39 @@ for (const [trajectoryId, row] of labels) { }) } -const report = { runs: [] } +// Split-level structure that needs no run. +const goldBlockWidths = [] +const goldBlockPositions = [] +for (const facts of traceFacts.values()) { + for (const block of facts.goldBlocks) { + goldBlockWidths.push(block.width) + goldBlockPositions.push(block.first / facts.stepCount) + } +} +const splitStructure = { + goldBlockWidth: distribution(goldBlockWidths), + goldBlockStartPositionFraction: distribution(goldBlockPositions), + constantRuleCalibration: constantRuleCalibration(labels), +} + +const report = { splitStructure, runs: [] } for (const run of args.runs) { const observations = readObservations(run.path, args.runner) const classes = { hit: 0, near: 0, far: 0, silent: 0, blindHit: 0, blind: 0 } + const blindReasons = { blank: 0, duplicate: 0, blankHit: 0, duplicateHit: 0 } + const farDirection = { later: 0, earlier: 0, straddling: 0 } + const toolTypeClasses = new Map() const findingClasses = { supported: 0, near: 0, pad: 0, padSolved: 0, padUnsolved: 0 } + const officialFindingClasses = { supported: 0, near: 0, pad: 0, padSolved: 0, padUnsolved: 0 } + const predictedBlockWidths = [] + const predictedBlockPositions = [] const perCase = new Map() const totals = { matched: 0, expected: 0, supported: 0, findings: 0 } + const official = { matched: 0, expected: 0, supported: 0, findings: 0 } const counterfactual = { dropBlindGold: { matched: 0, expected: 0, supported: 0, findings: 0 }, snapNear: { matched: 0, expected: 0, supported: 0, findings: 0 }, + snapFar: { matched: 0, expected: 0, supported: 0, findings: 0 }, dropEscaped: { matched: 0, expected: 0, supported: 0, findings: 0 }, abstainSolved: { matched: 0, expected: 0, supported: 0, findings: 0 }, } @@ -195,6 +348,7 @@ for (const run of args.runs) { const trajectoryId = observation.caseId.replace(/^codetrace:/, '') const facts = traceFacts.get(trajectoryId) if (!facts) throw new Error(`observation for unknown trajectory '${trajectoryId}'`) + const positive = observation.labelState === 'positive' const findings = observation.findings ?? [] const supported = new Set(observation.score.supportedFindingIndexes ?? []) const matchedSteps = new Set( @@ -207,6 +361,25 @@ for (const run of args.runs) { totals.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount totals.supported += supported.size totals.findings += findings.length + if (positive) { + official.matched += matchedSteps.size + official.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount + official.supported += supported.size + official.findings += findings.length + } + + // Predicted block shape, from the runner's own block metadata. + const seenBlocks = new Set() + for (const finding of findings) { + const first = finding.metadata?.block_first_step + const last = finding.metadata?.block_last_step + if (typeof first !== 'number' || typeof last !== 'number') continue + const key = `${first}-${last}` + if (seenBlocks.has(key)) continue + seenBlocks.add(key) + predictedBlockWidths.push(last - first + 1) + predictedBlockPositions.push(first / facts.stepCount) + } // Gold-step classes. const rowClasses = [] @@ -221,74 +394,135 @@ for (const run of args.runs) { else klass = 'far' classes[klass] += 1 rowClasses.push({ step, klass, nearest }) + if (klass === 'blind' || klass === 'blindHit') { + const reason = facts.blindReason.get(step) + if (klass === 'blind') blindReasons[reason] += 1 + else blindReasons[`${reason}Hit`] += 1 + } + if (klass === 'far') { + const later = citedSteps.some((value) => value > step) + const earlier = citedSteps.some((value) => value < step) + if (later && earlier) farDirection.straddling += 1 + else if (later) farDirection.later += 1 + else farDirection.earlier += 1 + } + if (facts.normalizedSteps) { + const normalized = facts.normalizedSteps.get(step) + const toolType = normalized?.toolType ?? 'unknown' + const bucket = toolTypeClasses.get(toolType) ?? { + gold: 0, + hit: 0, + near: 0, + far: 0, + silent: 0, + blind: 0, + withThinking: 0, + } + bucket.gold += 1 + bucket[klass === 'blindHit' ? 'hit' : klass] += 1 + if (normalized?.hasThinking) bucket.withThinking += 1 + toolTypeClasses.set(toolType, bucket) + } } // Unsupported-finding classes. for (const [index, finding] of findings.entries()) { if (supported.has(index)) { findingClasses.supported += 1 + if (positive) officialFindingClasses.supported += 1 continue } const step = cited[index] const distances = step === null ? [] : facts.gold.map((value) => Math.abs(value - step)) const nearest = distances.length === 0 ? Number.POSITIVE_INFINITY : Math.min(...distances) - if (nearest <= NEAR_STEPS) findingClasses.near += 1 - else { + if (nearest <= NEAR_STEPS) { + findingClasses.near += 1 + if (positive) officialFindingClasses.near += 1 + } else { findingClasses.pad += 1 if (facts.solved) findingClasses.padSolved += 1 else findingClasses.padUnsolved += 1 + if (positive) { + officialFindingClasses.pad += 1 + if (facts.solved) officialFindingClasses.padSolved += 1 + else officialFindingClasses.padUnsolved += 1 + } } } - // Counterfactual 1: gold the trace cannot single out leaves the denominator. - const blindMatched = [...matchedSteps].filter((step) => facts.blind.has(step)).length - const blindFindings = findings.filter((_, index) => { - const step = cited[index] - return step !== null && facts.blind.has(step) - }).length - const blindSupported = [...supported].filter((index) => { - const step = cited[index] - return step !== null && facts.blind.has(step) - }).length - counterfactual.dropBlindGold.matched += matchedSteps.size - blindMatched - counterfactual.dropBlindGold.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount - facts.blind.size - counterfactual.dropBlindGold.supported += supported.size - blindSupported - counterfactual.dropBlindGold.findings += findings.length - blindFindings - - // Counterfactual 2: a citation within NEAR_STEPS of an unmatched gold step counts. - const unmatchedGold = facts.gold.filter((step) => !matchedSteps.has(step)) - const claimed = new Set() - let snapped = 0 - for (const step of unmatchedGold) { - const candidate = findings.findIndex((_, index) => { - if (supported.has(index) || claimed.has(index)) return false - const value = cited[index] - return value !== null && Math.abs(value - step) <= NEAR_STEPS - }) - if (candidate >= 0) { - claimed.add(candidate) - snapped += 1 + // Counterfactuals accumulate in the official currency: positive runs only, + // matching the precision denominator result.summaries[].f1 reports. + if (positive) { + // Counterfactual 1: gold the trace cannot single out leaves the denominator. + const blindMatched = [...matchedSteps].filter((step) => facts.blind.has(step)).length + const blindFindings = findings.filter((_, index) => { + const step = cited[index] + return step !== null && facts.blind.has(step) + }).length + const blindSupported = [...supported].filter((index) => { + const step = cited[index] + return step !== null && facts.blind.has(step) + }).length + counterfactual.dropBlindGold.matched += matchedSteps.size - blindMatched + counterfactual.dropBlindGold.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount - facts.blind.size + counterfactual.dropBlindGold.supported += supported.size - blindSupported + counterfactual.dropBlindGold.findings += findings.length - blindFindings + + // Counterfactual 2: a citation within NEAR_STEPS of an unmatched gold step counts. + const unmatchedGold = facts.gold.filter((step) => !matchedSteps.has(step)) + const claimed = new Set() + let snapped = 0 + for (const step of unmatchedGold) { + const candidate = findings.findIndex((_, index) => { + if (supported.has(index) || claimed.has(index)) return false + const value = cited[index] + return value !== null && Math.abs(value - step) <= NEAR_STEPS + }) + if (candidate >= 0) { + claimed.add(candidate) + snapped += 1 + } } + counterfactual.snapNear.matched += matchedSteps.size + snapped + counterfactual.snapNear.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount + counterfactual.snapNear.supported += supported.size + snapped + counterfactual.snapNear.findings += findings.length + + // Counterfactual 2b: any citation, at any distance, counts toward an + // unmatched gold step (one finding per gold step). Upper-bounds what a + // region-level fix could recover without changing finding volume. + const farClaimed = new Set() + let farSnapped = 0 + for (const step of unmatchedGold) { + const candidate = findings.findIndex((_, index) => { + if (supported.has(index) || farClaimed.has(index)) return false + return cited[index] !== null + }) + if (candidate >= 0) { + farClaimed.add(candidate) + farSnapped += 1 + } + } + counterfactual.snapFar.matched += matchedSteps.size + farSnapped + counterfactual.snapFar.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount + counterfactual.snapFar.supported += supported.size + farSnapped + counterfactual.snapFar.findings += findings.length + + // Counterfactual 3: drop every block the analyst itself marked escaped. + const kept = findings + .map((finding, index) => ({ finding, index })) + .filter(({ finding }) => finding.metadata?.escape_status !== 'escaped') + counterfactual.dropEscaped.matched += kept.filter(({ index }) => supported.has(index)).length + counterfactual.dropEscaped.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount + counterfactual.dropEscaped.supported += kept.filter(({ index }) => supported.has(index)).length + counterfactual.dropEscaped.findings += kept.length + + // Counterfactual 4: report nothing on trajectories whose task verified solved. + counterfactual.abstainSolved.matched += facts.solved ? 0 : matchedSteps.size + counterfactual.abstainSolved.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount + counterfactual.abstainSolved.supported += facts.solved ? 0 : supported.size + counterfactual.abstainSolved.findings += facts.solved ? 0 : findings.length } - counterfactual.snapNear.matched += matchedSteps.size + snapped - counterfactual.snapNear.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount - counterfactual.snapNear.supported += supported.size + snapped - counterfactual.snapNear.findings += findings.length - - // Counterfactual 3: drop every block the analyst itself marked escaped. - const kept = findings - .map((finding, index) => ({ finding, index })) - .filter(({ finding }) => finding.metadata?.escape_status !== 'escaped') - counterfactual.dropEscaped.matched += kept.filter(({ index }) => supported.has(index)).length - counterfactual.dropEscaped.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount - counterfactual.dropEscaped.supported += kept.filter(({ index }) => supported.has(index)).length - counterfactual.dropEscaped.findings += kept.length - - // Counterfactual 4: report nothing on trajectories whose task verified solved. - counterfactual.abstainSolved.matched += facts.solved ? 0 : matchedSteps.size - counterfactual.abstainSolved.expected += observation.score.expectedIssueCount - counterfactual.abstainSolved.supported += facts.solved ? 0 : supported.size - counterfactual.abstainSolved.findings += facts.solved ? 0 : findings.length const existing = perCase.get(trajectoryId) ?? { trajectoryId, @@ -314,8 +548,19 @@ for (const run of args.runs) { path: run.path, observations: observations.length, baseline: micro(totals.matched, totals.expected, totals.supported, totals.findings), + official: micro(official.matched, official.expected, official.supported, official.findings), goldClasses: classes, + blindReasons, + farDirection, + toolTypeClasses: Object.fromEntries( + [...toolTypeClasses.entries()].sort((a, b) => b[1].gold - a[1].gold), + ), + predictedBlocks: { + width: distribution(predictedBlockWidths), + startPositionFraction: distribution(predictedBlockPositions), + }, findingClasses, + officialFindingClasses, counterfactuals: Object.fromEntries( Object.entries(counterfactual).map(([name, value]) => [ name, @@ -331,20 +576,50 @@ if (args.json) { process.exit(0) } +const structure = report.splitStructure +process.stdout.write('\n## split structure (labels + traces, no run)\n') +process.stdout.write(`gold block width: ${JSON.stringify(structure.goldBlockWidth)}\n`) +process.stdout.write(`gold block start fraction: ${JSON.stringify(structure.goldBlockStartPositionFraction)}\n`) +const calibration = structure.constantRuleCalibration +process.stdout.write(`constant rules (${calibration.labeledCases} labeled cases): `) +process.stdout.write( + `${Object.entries(calibration.named) + .map(([name, value]) => `${name} F1 ${fmt(value.f1, 3)}`) + .join(', ')}; best sweep: ${calibration.best.rule} F1 ${fmt(calibration.best.f1, 3)}\n`, +) + for (const run of report.runs) { const b = run.baseline + const o = run.official process.stdout.write(`\n## ${run.label} (${run.observations} observations, runner ${args.runner})\n`) process.stdout.write( - `micro recall ${fmt(b.recall)} precision ${fmt(b.precision)} F1 ${fmt(b.f1)} ` + - `(matched ${b.matched}/${b.expected}, supported ${b.supported}/${b.findings})\n`, + `official micro recall ${fmt(o.recall)} precision ${fmt(o.precision)} F1 ${fmt(o.f1)} ` + + `(matched ${o.matched}/${o.expected}, supported ${o.supported}/${o.findings}; positive runs only)\n`, + ) + process.stdout.write( + `pooled micro recall ${fmt(b.recall)} precision ${fmt(b.precision)} F1 ${fmt(b.f1)} ` + + `(matched ${b.matched}/${b.expected}, supported ${b.supported}/${b.findings}; all runs)\n`, ) process.stdout.write(`gold-step classes: ${JSON.stringify(run.goldClasses)}\n`) - process.stdout.write(`finding classes: ${JSON.stringify(run.findingClasses)}\n`) - process.stdout.write('counterfactual micro F1:\n') + process.stdout.write(`blind reasons: ${JSON.stringify(run.blindReasons)}\n`) + process.stdout.write(`far direction: ${JSON.stringify(run.farDirection)}\n`) + if (Object.keys(run.toolTypeClasses).length > 0) { + process.stdout.write('gold classes by tool type:\n') + for (const [toolType, bucket] of Object.entries(run.toolTypeClasses)) { + process.stdout.write(` ${toolType.padEnd(20)} ${JSON.stringify(bucket)}\n`) + } + } + process.stdout.write(`predicted block width: ${JSON.stringify(run.predictedBlocks.width)}\n`) + process.stdout.write( + `predicted block start fraction: ${JSON.stringify(run.predictedBlocks.startPositionFraction)}\n`, + ) + process.stdout.write(`finding classes (all runs): ${JSON.stringify(run.findingClasses)}\n`) + process.stdout.write(`finding classes (positive runs): ${JSON.stringify(run.officialFindingClasses)}\n`) + process.stdout.write('counterfactual official micro F1:\n') for (const [name, value] of Object.entries(run.counterfactuals)) { process.stdout.write( ` ${name.padEnd(16)} recall ${fmt(value.recall)} precision ${fmt(value.precision)} ` + - `F1 ${fmt(value.f1)} (delta ${fmt(value.f1 - b.f1, 4)})\n`, + `F1 ${fmt(value.f1)} (delta ${fmt(value.f1 - o.f1, 4)})\n`, ) } if (!args.markdown) continue From 9b40f6d937c127136c1610b8ee4aaf175b30b4d9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Drew Stone Date: Sun, 2 Aug 2026 23:07:46 -0600 Subject: [PATCH 2/3] feat(trace-analysis): pre-register family-framing coverage arm smoke One arm from the family-gap decomposition: stock RLM instructions (d3829fb8, byte-identical) plus a coverage-and-enumeration section and two family grammar notes (ecb8a207). Smoke on 6 seeded long-trace cases per family from the tuning-legal dev pools, paired against a fresh stock arm on the same cases; gates fixed before any model run. --- .../oht2-coverage-instructions.txt | 66 + .../family-framing/preregistration.md | 68 + .../smoke-labels-openhands.json | 841 ++++++++++ .../smoke-labels-terminus2.json | 1366 +++++++++++++++++ 4 files changed, 2341 insertions(+) create mode 100644 benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/oht2-coverage-instructions.txt create mode 100644 benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/preregistration.md create mode 100644 benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/smoke-labels-openhands.json create mode 100644 benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/smoke-labels-terminus2.json diff --git a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/oht2-coverage-instructions.txt b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/oht2-coverage-instructions.txt new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3fab9562 --- /dev/null +++ b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/oht2-coverage-instructions.txt @@ -0,0 +1,66 @@ +Analyze exactly one coding-agent trajectory and its attached final verification. +Your task is the CodeTraceBench incorrect-step task: identify every incorrect step, defined as a wrong state-changing intervention given the evidence — a mislocalized edit, a wrong hypothesis that drives an action, a regression, an irrelevant change, or an incorrect dependency or configuration choice. +If the final verification failed, the trajectory MUST contain at least one incorrect step. Never return an empty findings array on a failing trajectory; trace backward until you find the root cause. +Work backward, the way this benchmark was annotated, never by scanning forward for suspicious steps: start from the final verification outcome or the latest observed failure evidence, identify the immediately preceding step whose action or output produced that observed error, then recursively ask which earlier decision led to each intermediate failure, until the preceding steps contain no error or the cause is unrelated to the trajectory's own decisions. +Each backward chain terminates at an error-critical step — the earliest decision that triggered the downstream cascade — and that step is the block's first_step: the step that committed the mistake, not the step that planned it and not a later step that repeats it. +A block is a maximal contiguous sequence of strictly incorrect steps. A step belongs in the block ONLY if it introduces, propagates, or compounds the error. +Do NOT include steps that merely "act on", diagnose, or react to the error. A diagnostic command, a test run exposing the bug, or a correct exploratory read is a CORRECT step. +If an incorrect step is followed by a correct diagnostic step and then another incorrect step, you MUST emit two separate blocks. NEVER bridge correct steps by grouping them into a single block with incorrect steps. Over-blocking drastically hurts your precision. +After identifying first_step, extend last_step forward ONLY through consecutive steps that independently introduce, propagate, or compound the mistake. A cascade of repeated failed attempts at the same wrong approach is one maximal block, provided EVERY step is independently incorrect. +Do not end a block merely because the agent tried a variation of the same wrong approach; a variation that still carries the error stays inside the block. +A partially correct or ambiguous fix still counts as incorrect; the block ends only at the first step free of the error — a clean diagnostic read, the corrective action that closes the issue and needs no further rework, or a genuine abandonment of the wrong approach. +Block extent follows the traced chain and this forward extension, nothing else. +Report each failure block as exactly one finding whose first_step is the block's first incorrect step and whose last_step is its last, covering every consecutive step between them. +Every step inside a block is scored on its own: naming a correct step costs exactly as much as missing an incorrect one, and naming only the first step of a longer block forfeits every unnamed step. Because of this, carefully verify every step between first_step and last_step. Only include steps that introduce, propagate, or compound the error. +Report blocks separated by at least one correct step as separate findings, and never let two blocks overlap. If there are multiple separate failure cascades, emit a separate finding for each one. +Prefer anchored blocks: a block whose chain traces back from observed failure evidence — a failing command or verification, an error observation, a regression, or, on a solved trajectory, a later step that reverts or supersedes it — outranks one without. +When an action is clearly wrong on its own evidence but you cannot trace such an anchor, report the block anyway with proportionally lower confidence. +A solved trajectory still carries every mistake made along the way: inspect its final patching and verification stages for a state-changing action that a later step reverted, superseded, or corrected — a wrong edit just before the final fix is incorrect even when every test ends green. +Before emitting a candidate block, check its boundaries. +Neighbor check: ask whether the accusation fits one step earlier (the decision rather than its consequence) or one step later (the next step still acts on or reworks the same error) better than where you placed it, and move the boundary when it does; a boundary off by one step scores zero at that step. +Completeness check: a block must cover the maximal contiguous sequence of incorrect steps. If an agent fails at step 10, tries to fix it at 11, fails, and tries again at 12 and 13, all four steps are incorrect and must be included in the block. Never truncate a cascade. If you miss the later steps of a cascade, your recall drops to zero for them. +Counterfactual check: ask which step's correct execution would have made the downstream failure or rework disappear, and move first_step onto that step; use this check only to move a boundary, never to delete a block. +Width check: inspect the step immediately before first_step and the step immediately after last_step; when either neighbor commits to, compounds, or propagates the same mistake, it belongs inside the block — move that boundary outward and repeat until both neighbors are free of the error. +For each block you keep, name as consequence_step the step number whose action or observation shows the damage — a failing command, a wrong file state, a repeated failure, or rework the agent had to do because of this block; that step is the block's own last step when its observation already shows the damage, and a later step otherwise. +When you cannot name that step number from the trace you were given, drop the block; a plausible story about why a step looks wrong is not evidence that it was. +A passing final verification is not evidence that a block caused nothing, and a failing final verification is not evidence that any particular block caused it. +For every block, decide whether the agent escaped the failure. +Mark escape_status "escaped" only when you can name the single later step that fully reversed the block, the agent needed no other step to recover, and nothing after that step revisits the same file, command, or hypothesis; write that step number in the rationale. If the agent required multiple steps to fix the issue, or if you are unsure, it is not escaped. +Mark escape_status "unescaped" in every other case, including whenever you are unsure. +A passing final verification never makes a block escaped. +Do not label a diagnostic probe or test run merely because its output exposes an earlier defect. +Do not label a redundant but correct read or search; CodeTraceBench scores unuseful steps separately, and this run scores incorrect steps only. Never include a correct step in a block just to bridge two incorrect steps; instead, emit two separate blocks. +Do not label a step solely because final verification failed. +When final verification is unavailable, trace backward from the latest failure evidence inside the trajectory itself. +Every step in a reported block MUST be the positive integer n from an existing assistant LLM span named step-. +Never select an EVALUATOR, TOOL, CHAIN, final-verification, benchmark-verification, or message- span. +Before emitting a finding, inspect every covered span's attributes.content and describe only the actions shown there. +Report at most 16 blocks and at most 12 steps in one block; when more candidates than that exist, report the ones whose chains carry the clearest downstream evidence. +When the trajectory has no incorrect steps — its final verification passed and the final-stage sweep found no reverted, superseded, or corrected action — return an empty findings array. +Trajectory families and coverage. +This trajectory may come from a long agent session (OpenHands tool-call sessions, Terminus2 terminal sessions) that contains several independent failure incidents spread across the whole session, not one late cascade. +Coverage rule: your compact table of assistant steps must span the ENTIRE trajectory, from step 1 through the final step, before you rank any candidate. +After tracing the incident with the clearest downstream evidence, do not submit: resume scanning every remaining segment of the trajectory — early, middle, and late thirds — for further independent incidents, and only submit once each segment has been examined against its own failure evidence. +Finding one incident is not evidence that other segments are clean. +Approach transitions are where labeled mistakes concentrate: whenever the agent abandons an approach, adopts a new plan, or reworks after a failed check, trace that segment's own error-critical step and report its block even when the session eventually ended fine. +Emit one block per independent incident you can support with that incident's own evidence; never drop a supportable incident because you already reported another, and never merge distinct incidents separated by correct steps. +Action grammar. +OpenHands steps are rendered tool calls — read({...}), edit({...}), run({...}), think({...}) — and the reasoning text before the call is part of the step's content. +A run step's command can be buried inside many blank lines; the non-blank text is the action, and a step is never clean merely because its rendering is mostly whitespace. +A wrong hypothesis committed through an edit or a wrong tool invocation is exactly as incorrect as a wrong shell command. +Terminus2 steps are raw terminal keystrokes; sessions repeat identical commands and send bare Enter keystrokes. +When the same command text occurs at several steps, anchor the step number on the surrounding observations and cite the occurrence inside the failing segment, never the first text match. +Use the trace tools rather than asking for the whole trajectory in the prompt. +Keep retrieved trace objects in Python variables. +Never print an entire trace, full source file, or more than 12000 characters in one iteration. +Read the final verification and the latest failure evidence first, then build a compact table of assistant step ids, actions, and following observations. +Trace backward from that evidence with viewSpans or searchSpan, confirming each candidate step's own action content, instead of repeatedly printing the table. +This runner emits no JSON fields, so the block is encoded in the finding's subject. +Only findings_json is scored; your prose answer is ignored, so every incorrect block you identify must appear as a finding, never only in the answer. +Emit exactly one finding per contiguous failure block. +Set the finding's subject to incorrect-steps----consequence-, using the same four values the task defines; for a block covering only step 7 that the agent never escaped and whose damage shows at step 9, the subject is incorrect-steps-7-7-unescaped-consequence-9. +The runner expands the block to one scored step per member and builds every scored citation itself. +Cite the block's first step and its last step as trace:///span/step-, each excerpt an exact quote from that step's own action content. +Give the rationale as the concrete downstream evidence visible at the consequence step. +Submit as soon as every candidate failure block has a supported verdict. +Return no finding for a clean trajectory. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/preregistration.md b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/preregistration.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..3803235f --- /dev/null +++ b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/preregistration.md @@ -0,0 +1,68 @@ +# Pre-registration — family-framing coverage arm, dev-pool smoke (written 2026-08-02, BEFORE any model run) + +Decomposition motivating this arm: [`.evolve/family-gap-decomposition-2026-08-02.md`](../../../../.evolve/family-gap-decomposition-2026-08-02.md). +Target class: `far` + `silent` + under-enumeration, 57–58% of OpenHands/Terminus2 gold mass; measured ceiling snapFar +32.3pp (OH) / +25.4pp (T2) in the official currency. + +## Arm + +One change: `--instructions-file family-framing/oht2-coverage-instructions.txt` (sha256 `ecb8a207…`). +The file is the stock RLM instructions (sha256 `d3829fb8…`, byte-identical extraction from `dist/analyst`) with one coverage-and-enumeration section and two family grammar notes inserted between the task prompt and the RLM output contract. +No step-count, block-count, or width priors (shape-prior lesson: −10 to −15pp). +Engine, model, limits, seed, and repetition count are identical across arms; the instructions text is the only difference. + +## Smoke instrument (TUNING-LEGAL dev pools, never cert32) + +Eligibility: dev-pool rows with ≥1 gold step AND `step_count` ≥ 40 (the long-trace regime where the family gap concentrates; 72 of 464 OH rows, 34 of 188 T2 rows qualify). +Selection: `sha256("20260802" + "\0" + traj_id)` ascending, first 6 per family; committed as `smoke-labels-openhands.json` (sha256 `1b687899…`, 26 gold steps) and `smoke-labels-terminus2.json` (sha256 `f61fa566…`, 47 gold steps). +2 repetitions, seed 0, so 12 observations per family per arm; 48 total across 4 runs (2 arms x 2 families). +The stock arm runs fresh on the same cases: cert32 numbers do not transfer and the comparison is paired on caseId + repetition. + +## Protocol + +Strictly serial runs, glm-5.2 via z.ai direct, `--max-output-tokens 16384` (reasoning-model floor), `--concurrency 3`, `--timeout-ms 1200000`, per-run `--max-cost-usd 2.5`. +Expected spend ≈ $6 (cert2 median $0.109/observation x 48 + margin); worst case $10 by per-run caps. +The measurement mutex (`/tmp/ctb-llm-mutex.lock`) is held for the whole paid phase and released on every exit path. + +## Gates (fixed now; pooled = both families' 24 observations per arm, official micro) + +| Gate | Threshold | +| --- | --- | +| Primary (score) | pooled official micro F1(framing) ≥ pooled F1(stock) + 0.05 | +| Mechanism A (enumeration) | predicted blocks per positive run (framing) ≥ stock + 0.5 | +| Mechanism B (localization) | far share of gold observations (framing) ≤ stock − 10pp | +| No-harm | neither family's official micro F1 < that family's stock − 0.05 | +| Kill | pooled F1 < stock − 0.03, or >10% failed runs in either arm, or pad findings per positive run > stock x 1.6 | + +Decision rule: scale to a full dev measurement only if Primary AND (Mechanism A OR Mechanism B) AND No-harm all pass. +Any kill condition stops the arm this round. +Anything in between: no further paid runs this round; the readout feeds the next diagnosis. +The smoke estimates the effect inside the long-trace labeled class; it certifies nothing, and no sealed split is touched. + +## Exact commands + +```bash +FF=benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing +for fam in openhands terminus2; do + for arm in stock framing; do + extra="" + [ "$arm" = framing ] && extra="--instructions-file $FF/oht2-coverage-instructions.txt" + MODEL_API_KEY="$ZAI_GLM_API_KEY" node dist/cli.js analyst-benchmark \ + --dataset codetracebench \ + --analyst dspy-rlm \ + --python clients/python/.venv/bin/python \ + --labels "$FF/smoke-labels-$fam.json" \ + --trace-dir /dev/shm/ctb-oht2-traces-$fam \ + --artifact-dir ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/work/$fam/extracted \ + --out ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/family-framing-smoke/$arm-$fam \ + --revision aa213b84ffb6690fc37ca15766d6ca174ec36d4d \ + --split devsmoke-$fam-$arm-20260802 \ + --base-url https://api.z.ai/api/coding/paas/v4 \ + --api-key-env MODEL_API_KEY \ + --model glm-5.2 \ + --limit 6 --seed 0 --concurrency 3 --repetitions 2 \ + --max-output-tokens 16384 --timeout-ms 1200000 --max-cost-usd 2.5 $extra + done +done +``` + +Readout: `compare-analyst-runs.mjs` paired per family + pooled, and `decompose-analyst-loss.mjs` per family per arm for the mechanism gates. diff --git a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/smoke-labels-openhands.json b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/smoke-labels-openhands.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..00a8636a --- /dev/null +++ b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/smoke-labels-openhands.json @@ -0,0 +1,841 @@ +[ + { + "traj_id": "openhands-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-install-windows-xp-6370aa03", + "agent": "OpenHands", + "model": "DeepSeek/DeepSeek-V3.2", + "task_name": "install-windows-xp", + "task_slug": "install-windows-xp-6370aa03", + "difficulty": "hard", + "category": "system-administration", + "tags": [ + "virtualization", + "qemu", + "windows-xp", + "vnc", + "sys-admin" + ], + "solved": false, + "step_count": 88, + "stages": [ + { + "stage_id": 1, + "start_step_id": 1, + "end_step_id": 7 + }, + { + "stage_id": 2, + "start_step_id": 8, + "end_step_id": 18 + }, + { + "stage_id": 3, + "start_step_id": 19, + "end_step_id": 28 + }, + { + "stage_id": 4, + "start_step_id": 29, + "end_step_id": 35 + }, + { + "stage_id": 5, + "start_step_id": 36, + "end_step_id": 47 + }, + { + "stage_id": 6, + "start_step_id": 48, + "end_step_id": 56 + }, + { + "stage_id": 7, + "start_step_id": 57, + "end_step_id": 62 + }, + { + "stage_id": 8, + "start_step_id": 63, + "end_step_id": 65 + }, + { + "stage_id": 9, + "start_step_id": 66, + "end_step_id": 74 + }, + { + "stage_id": 10, + "start_step_id": 75, + "end_step_id": 80 + }, + { + "stage_id": 11, + "start_step_id": 81, + "end_step_id": 84 + }, + { + "stage_id": 12, + "start_step_id": 85, + "end_step_id": 88 + } + ], + "stage_count": 12, + "incorrect_error_stage_count": 3, + "trial_name": "install-windows-xp.1-of-1.2025-12-31__04-24-21", + "source_relpath": "openhands/DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2/openhands_dpv3/2025-12-31__04-24-21/install-windows-xp/install-windows-xp.1-of-1.2025-12-31__04-24-21", + "annotation_relpath": "agent_failure_analysis/step_annotations_all/openhands/DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2/openhands-ds/install-windows-xp", + "incorrect_stages": [ + { + "stage_id": 8, + "incorrect_step_ids": [ + 63, + 64 + ], + "unuseful_step_ids": [], + "steps": [ + { + "step_id": 63, + "labels": [ + "incorrect" + ], + "action_ref": { + "path": "traj/openhands/DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2/openhands_dpv3/2025-12-31__04-24-21/install-windows-xp/install-windows-xp.1-of-1.2025-12-31__04-24-21/sessions/sessions/489b6c7c-2bc4-47-afdeda1305b6fe8/events/141.json", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 1, + "content": "{\"id\": 141, \"timestamp\": \"2025-12-31T05:33:45.443609\", \"source\": \"agent\", \"message\": \"Running command: \\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\necho -e \\\"\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\" | timeout 5 telnet localhost 5901 2>&1 | head -20\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\", \"action\": \"run\", \"tool_call_metadata\": {\"function_name\": \"execute_bash\", \"tool_call_id\": \"toolu_69\", \"model_response\": {\"id\": \"f28b4a122d49458f88e889b76ad3a3aa\", \"created\": 1767159225, \"model\": \"deepseek-v3.2\", \"object\": \"chat.completion\", \"system_fingerprint\": null, \"choices\": [{\"finish_reason\": \"stop\", \"index\": 0, \"message\": {\"content\": \"Still 4K. This is frustrating. Let me think about what could be wrong. Maybe:\\n\\n1. The ISO is corrupted or not a proper Windows XP ISO\\n2. QEMU needs KVM enabled for reasonable performance\\n3. We need to check VNC to see what's actually on the screen\\n\\nSince I can't use a GUI VNC viewer, let me try to check if there's any text-mode VNC client or use a different approach. Actually, let me check if we can use `nmap` or `telnet` to see if VNC is responding.\", \"role\": \"assistant\", \"tool_calls\": [{\"index\": 1, \"function\": {\"arguments\": \"{\\\"command\\\": \\\"\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\necho -e \\\\\\\"\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\" | timeout 5 telnet localhost 5901 2>&1 | head -20\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\"}\", \"name\": \"execute_bash\"}, \"id\": \"toolu_69\", \"type\": \"function\"}], \"function_call\": null}, \"provider_specific_fields\": {\"matched_stop\": \"&1 | head -20\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\", \"is_input\": false, \"thought\": \"Still 4K. This is frustrating. Let me think about what could be wrong. Maybe:\\n\\n1. The ISO is corrupted or not a proper Windows XP ISO\\n2. QEMU needs KVM enabled for reasonable performance\\n3. We need to check VNC to see what's actually on the screen\\n\\nSince I can't use a GUI VNC viewer, let me try to check if there's any text-mode VNC client or use a different approach. Actually, let me check if we can use `nmap` or `telnet` to see if VNC is responding.\", \"blocking\": false, \"is_static\": false, \"cwd\": null, \"hidden\": false, \"confirmation_state\": \"confirmed\"}}" + }, + "observation_ref": { + "path": "traj/openhands/DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2/openhands_dpv3/2025-12-31__04-24-21/install-windows-xp/install-windows-xp.1-of-1.2025-12-31__04-24-21/sessions/sessions/489b6c7c-2bc4-47-afdeda1305b6fe8/events/142.json", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 1, + "content": "{\"id\": 142, \"timestamp\": \"2025-12-31T05:33:46.074038\", \"source\": \"agent\", \"message\": \"Command `echo -e \\\"\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\" | timeout 5 telnet localhost 5901 2>&1 | head -20` executed with exit code 0.\", \"cause\": 141, \"observation\": \"run\", \"tool_call_metadata\": {\"function_name\": \"execute_bash\", \"tool_call_id\": \"toolu_69\", \"model_response\": {\"id\": \"f28b4a122d49458f88e889b76ad3a3aa\", \"created\": 1767159225, \"model\": \"deepseek-v3.2\", \"object\": \"chat.completion\", \"system_fingerprint\": null, \"choices\": [{\"finish_reason\": \"stop\", \"index\": 0, \"message\": {\"content\": \"Still 4K. This is frustrating. Let me think about what could be wrong. Maybe:\\n\\n1. The ISO is corrupted or not a proper Windows XP ISO\\n2. QEMU needs KVM enabled for reasonable performance\\n3. We need to check VNC to see what's actually on the screen\\n\\nSince I can't use a GUI VNC viewer, let me try to check if there's any text-mode VNC client or use a different approach. Actually, let me check if we can use `nmap` or `telnet` to see if VNC is responding.\", \"role\": \"assistant\", \"tool_calls\": [{\"index\": 1, \"function\": {\"arguments\": \"{\\\"command\\\": \\\"\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\necho -e \\\\\\\"\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\\n\\\\\\\" | timeout 5 telnet localhost 5901 2>&1 | head -20\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\"}\", \"name\": \"execute_bash\"}, \"id\": \"toolu_69\", \"type\": \"function\"}], \"function_call\": 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\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\napt-get install -y telnet 2>&1 | tail -5\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\\n\", \"action\": \"run\", \"tool_call_metadata\": {\"function_name\": \"execute_bash\", \"tool_call_id\": \"toolu_70\", \"model_response\": {\"id\": \"18ce6d12e6f14d53ae3eceab41522674\", \"created\": 1767159231, \"model\": \"deepseek-v3.2\", \"object\": \"chat.completion\", \"system_fingerprint\": null, \"choices\": [{\"finish_reason\": \"stop\", \"index\": 0, \"message\": {\"content\": \"Let me install telnet.\", \"role\": \"assistant\", \"tool_calls\": [{\"index\": 1, \"function\": {\"arguments\": \"{\\\"command\\\": 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"action_ref": { + "path": "traj/openhands/DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2/openhands_dpv3/2025-12-31__04-24-21/install-windows-xp/install-windows-xp.1-of-1.2025-12-31__04-24-21/sessions/sessions/489b6c7c-2bc4-47-afdeda1305b6fe8/events/169.json", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 1, + "content": "{\"id\": 169, \"timestamp\": \"2025-12-31T05:42:43.188242\", \"source\": \"agent\", \"message\": \"Running command: 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"agent_failure_analysis/step_annotations_all/openhands/DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2/openhands-ds/build-linux-kernel-qemu", + "incorrect_stages": [ + { + "stage_id": 7, + "incorrect_step_ids": [ + 31, + 32, + 34, + 35, + 36, + 38, + 39, + 40 + ], + "unuseful_step_ids": [ + 33, + 37 + ], + "steps": [ + { + "step_id": 31, + "labels": [ + "incorrect" + ], + "action_ref": { + "path": "traj/openhands/DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2/openhands_dpv3/2025-12-31__04-24-21/build-linux-kernel-qemu/build-linux-kernel-qemu.1-of-1.2025-12-31__04-24-21/sessions/sessions/2fc509d9-ebef-4c-23af9a09f0ee41f/events/81.json", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 1, + "content": "{\"id\": 81, \"timestamp\": \"2025-12-31T09:48:31.115384\", \"source\": \"agent\", \"message\": \"Running command: \\n\\n\\n\\nC-a c quit\\n\\n\\n\\n\", \"action\": \"run\", \"tool_call_metadata\": {\"function_name\": \"execute_bash\", \"tool_call_id\": \"toolu_39\", \"model_response\": {\"id\": \"6a515701a5a34e1e824934fb726fa8bd\", \"created\": 1767174511, \"model\": \"deepseek-v3.2\", \"object\": \"chat.completion\", \"system_fingerprint\": null, \"choices\": [{\"finish_reason\": \"stop\", \"index\": 0, \"message\": {\"content\": \"Let me try to use the QEMU monitor escape sequence. In QEMU, Ctrl+A then C enters the monitor. Then I can type 'quit'.\", \"role\": \"assistant\", \"tool_calls\": [{\"index\": 1, \"function\": {\"arguments\": \"{\\\"command\\\": \\\"\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\nC-a c quit\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\\n\\\", \\\"is_input\\\": \\\"true\\\"}\", \"name\": \"execute_bash\"}, \"id\": \"toolu_39\", \"type\": \"function\"}], \"function_call\": null}, \"provider_specific_fields\": {\"matched_stop\": \" solution.js << 'EOF'\\nfunction Stacker() {\\n this.gameState = {\\n map: {},\\n goldLocation: null,\\n currentPos: null,\\n carrying: false,\\n visited: new Set(),\\n blocks: [],\\n phase: 'explore' // explore, collect, build, approach\\n };\\n\\n this.turn = function(cell) {\\n const state = this.gameState;\\n \\n // Update current position and map\\n if (!state.currentPos) {\\n state.currentPos = { x: 0, y: 0 };\\n }\\n \\n const key = `${state.currentPos.x},${state.currentPos.y}`;\\n state.map[key] = {\\n type: cell.type,\\n level: cell.level,\\n left: cell.left,\\n up: cell.up,\\n right: cell.right,\\n down: cell.down\\n };\\n \\n // Mark as visited\\n state.visited.add(key);\\n \\n // Check for gold\\n if (cell.type === 3) {\\n state.goldLocation = { x: state.currentPos.x, y: state.currentPos.y, level: cell.level };\\n }\\n \\n // Scan neighbors for gold and blocks\\n const directions = [\\n { dir: 'left', dx: -1, dy: 0, data: cell.left },\\n { dir: 'up', dx: 0, dy: -1, data: cell.up },\\n { dir: 'right', dx: 1, dy: 0, data: cell.right },\\n { dir: 'down', dx: 0, dy: 1, data: cell.down }\\n ];\\n \\n directions.forEach(({dir, dx, dy, data}) => {\\n const neighborKey = `${state.currentPos.x + dx},${state.currentPos.y + dy}`;\\n state.map[neighborKey] = data;\\n \\n if (data.type === 3) {\\n state.goldLocation = { \\n x: state.currentPos.x + dx, \\n y: state.currentPos.y + dy, \\n level: data.level \\n };\\n }\\n \\n if (data.type === 2) {\\n const blockKey = `${state.currentPos.x + dx},${state.currentPos.y + dy}`;\\n if (!state.blocks.some(b => b.key === blockKey)) {\\n state.blocks.push({\\n key: blockKey,\\n x: state.currentPos.x + dx,\\n y: state.currentPos.y + dy,\\n level: data.level\\n });\\n }\\n }\\n });\\n \\n // If we found gold and have enough information, switch to building phase\\n if (state.goldLocation && state.blocks.length > 0 && state.phase === 'explore') {\\n state.phase = 'collect';\\n }\\n \\n // Current cell has a block we can pick up\\n if (cell.type === 2 && !state.carrying) {\\n state.carrying = true;\\n return \\\"pickup\\\";\\n }\\n \\n // If we're carrying and at gold location, try to build up\\n if (state.carrying && state.goldLocation && \\n state.currentPos.x === state.goldLocation.x && \\n state.currentPos.y === state.goldLocation.y) {\\n if (cell.level < state.goldLocation.level - 1) {\\n state.carrying = false;\\n return \\\"drop\\\";\\n }\\n }\\n \\n // If we're at gold and high enough, we win!\\n if (cell.type === 3 && cell.level >= 8) {\\n return \\\"pickup\\\"; // This should end the game\\n }\\n \\n // Movement logic\\n const canMove = (dir, data) => {\\n return data.type !== 1 && Math.abs(data.level - cell.level) <= 1;\\n };\\n \\n // Priority: go to gold if we know where it is and can reach it\\n if (state.goldLocation) {\\n const dx = state.goldLocation.x - state.currentPos.x;\\n const dy = state.goldLocation.y - state.currentPos.y;\\n \\n if (dx < 0 && canMove('left', cell.left)) {\\n state.currentPos.x--;\\n return \\\"left\\\";\\n }\\n if (dx > 0 && canMove('right', cell.right)) {\\n state.currentPos.x++;\\n return \\\"right\\\";\\n }\\n if (dy < 0 && canMove('up', cell.up)) {\\n state.currentPos.y--;\\n return \\\"up\\\";\\n }\\n if (dy > 0 && canMove('down', cell.down)) {\\n state.currentPos.y++;\\n return \\\"down\\\";\\n }\\n }\\n \\n // Exploration: find unvisited areas or blocks\\n for (const {dir, dx, dy, data} of directions) {\\n const neighborKey = `${state.currentPos.x + dx},${state.currentPos.y + dy}`;\\n if (canMove(dir, data) && (!state.visited.has(neighborKey) || data.type === 2)) {\\n state.currentPos.x += dx;\\n state.currentPos.y += dy;\\n return dir;\\n }\\n }\\n \\n // Fallback: move to any valid direction\\n for (const {dir, dx, dy, data} of directions) {\\n if (canMove(dir, data)) {\\n state.currentPos.x += dx;\\n state.currentPos.y += dy;\\n return dir;\\n }\\n }\\n \\n // If stuck, try to drop if carrying\\n if (state.carrying) {\\n state.carrying = false;\\n return \\\"drop\\\";\\n }\\n \\n return \\\"right\\\"; // Default fallback\\n };\\n}\\nEOF\\n\",\n \"duration\": 0.1\n }\n ]\n}" + }, + "observation_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-6/prompt.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 160, + "content": "New Terminal Output:\n\nroot@rack-ge107-ya-20250517193277:/app# cat > solution.js << 'EOF'\n> function Stacker() {\n> this.gameState = {\n> map: {},\n> goldLocation: null,\nctions) {\n if (canMove(dir, data)) {\n state.currentPos.x += dx;\n state.currentPos.y +=> currentPos: null,\n> carrying: false,\n> visited: new Set(),\n> blocks: [],\n> phase: 'explore' // explore, collect, build, approach\n> };\n>\n> this.turn = function(cell) {\n> const state = this.gameState;\n>\n;> // Update current position and map\n> if (!state.currentPos) {\n> state.currentPos = { x: 0, y: 0 };\n> }\n>\n> const key = `${state.currentPos.x},${state.currentPos.y}`;\n> state.map[key] = {\n> type: cell.type,\n> level: cell.level,\n> left: cell.left,\n> up: cell.up,\n> right: cell.right,\n> down: cell.down\n> };\n>\n> // Mark as visited\n> state.visited.add(key);\n>\n> // Check for gold\n> if (cell.type === 3) {\n> state.goldLocation = { x: state.currentPos.x, y: state.currentPos.y, level: cell.level };\n> }\n>\n> // Scan neighbors for gold and blocks\n> const directions = [\n> { dir: 'left', dx: -1, dy: 0, data: cell.left },\n> { dir: 'up', dx: 0, dy: -1, data: cell.up },\n> { dir: 'right', dx: 1, dy: 0, data: cell.right },\n> { dir: 'down', dx: 0, dy: 1, data: cell.down }\n> ];\n>\n> directions.forEach(({dir, dx, dy, data}) => {\n> const neighborKey = `${state.currentPos.x + dx},${state.currentPos.y + dy}`;\n> state.map[neighborKey] = data;\n>\n> if (data.type === 3) {\n> state.goldLocation = {\n> x: state.currentPos.x + dx,\n> y: state.currentPos.y + dy,\n> level: data.level\n> };\n> }\n>\n> if (data.type === 2) {\n> const blockKey = `${state.currentPos.x + dx},${state.currentPos.y + dy}`;\n> if (!state.blocks.some(b => b.key === blockKey)) {\n> state.blocks.push({\n> key: blockKey,\n> x: state.currentPos.x + dx,\n> y: state.currentPos.y + dy,\n> level: data.level\n> });\n> }\n> }\n> });\n>\n> // If we found gold and have enough information, switch to building phase\n> if (state.goldLocation && state.blocks.length > 0 && state.phase === 'explore') {\n> state.phase = 'collect';\n> }\n>\n> // Current cell has a block we can pick up\n> if (cell.type === 2 && !state.carrying) {\n> state.carrying = true;\n> return \"pickup\";\n> }\n>\n> // If we're carrying and at gold location, try to build up\n> if (state.carrying && state.goldLocation &&\n> state.currentPos.x === state.goldLocation.x &&\n> state.currentPos.y === state.goldLocation.y) {\n> if (cell.level < state.goldLocation.level - 1) {\n> state.carrying = false;\n> return \"drop\";\n> }\n> }\n>\n> // If we're at gold and high enough, we win!\n> if (cell.type === 3 && cell.level >= 8) {\n> return \"pickup\"; // This should end the game\n> }\n>\n> // Movement logic\n> const canMove = (dir, data) => {\n> return data.type !== 1 && Math.abs(data.level - cell.level) <= 1;\n> };\n>\n> // Priority: go to gold if we know where it is and can reach it\n> if (state.goldLocation) {\n> const dx = state.goldLocation.x - state.currentPos.x;\n> const dy = state.goldLocation.y - state.currentPos.y;\n>\n> if (dx < 0 && canMove('left', cell.left)) {\n> state.currentPos.x--;\n> return \"left\";\n> }\n> if (dx > 0 && canMove('right', cell.right)) {\n> state.currentPos.x++;\n> return \"right\";\n> }\n> if (dy < 0 && canMove('up', cell.up)) {\n> state.currentPos.y--;\n> return \"up\";\n> }\n> if (dy > 0 && canMove('down', cell.down)) {\n> state.currentPos.y++;\n> return \"down\";\n> }\n> }\n>\n> // Exploration: find unvisited areas or blocks\n> for (const {dir, dx, dy, data} of directions) {\n> const neighborKey = `${state.currentPos.x + dx},${state.currentPos.y + dy}`;\n> if (canMove(dir, data) && (!state.visited.has(neighborKey) || data.type === 2)) {\n> state.currentPos.x += dx;\n> state.currentPos.y += dy;\n> return dir;\n> }\n> }\n>\n> // Fallback: move to any valid direction\n> for (const {dir, dx, dy, data} of directions) {\n> if (canMove(dir, data)) {\n> state.currentPos.x += dx;\n> state.currentPos.y += dy;\n> return dir;\n> }\n> }\n>\n> // If stuck, try to drop if carrying\n> if (state.carrying) {\n> state.carrying = false;\n> return \"drop\";\n> }\n>\n> return \"right\"; // Default fallback\n> };\n> }\n> EOF\nroot@rack-ge107-ya-20250517193277:/app#\n" + } + }, + { + "step_id": 8, + "labels": [ + "unuseful" + ], + "action_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-7/response.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 10, + "content": "{\n \"analysis\": \"The test is running but seems to be taking longer than expected or may be stuck. Let me wait a bit more to see if it completes, as maze solving can sometimes take time depending on the complexity of the generated maps.\",\n \"plan\": \"I'll wait a bit longer for the test to complete. If it's still running, I may need to check if there's an issue with my algorithm or if it's just taking time to solve complex mazes.\",\n \"commands\": [\n {\n \"keystrokes\": \"\",\n \"duration\": 10.0\n }\n ]\n}" + }, + "observation_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-8/prompt.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 4, + "content": "New Terminal Output:\n\nDEBUG: invoking game.run(3)\n\n" + } + }, + { + "step_id": 9, + "labels": [ + "incorrect" + ], + "action_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-8/response.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 10, + "content": "{\n \"analysis\": \"The test seems to be hanging or taking a very long time. This suggests there might be an issue with my algorithm - it could be getting stuck in infinite loops or not making progress efficiently. I should interrupt the process and revise my solution with a more robust strategy.\",\n \"plan\": \"I'll interrupt the current test and create a simpler, more reliable solution that focuses on basic exploration and pathfinding without getting stuck in complex state management that might cause infinite loops.\",\n \"commands\": [\n {\n \"keystrokes\": \"C-c\",\n \"duration\": 1.0\n }\n ]\n}" + }, + "observation_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-9/prompt.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 5, + "content": "New Terminal Output:\n\nDEBUG: invoking game.run(3)\n^C\nroot@rack-ge107-ya-20250517193277:/app#\n" + } + } + ] + }, + { + "stage_id": 3, + "incorrect_step_ids": [ + 10, + 13, + 14, + 17 + ], + "unuseful_step_ids": [ + 12, + 16 + ], + "steps": [ + { + "step_id": 10, + "labels": [ + "incorrect" + ], + "action_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-9/response.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 10, + "content": "{\n \"analysis\": \"The test was interrupted. My current solution likely has issues with infinite loops or inefficient pathfinding. I need to create a simpler, more robust solution that focuses on basic exploration, block collection, and stair building without complex state management that could cause hanging.\",\n \"plan\": \"I'll create a revised solution with a simpler approach: systematic exploration using a spiral pattern, immediate block pickup when available, and direct pathfinding to gold when found. I'll avoid complex state tracking that might cause loops.\",\n \"commands\": [\n {\n \"keystrokes\": \"cat > solution.js << 'EOF'\\nfunction Stacker() {\\n this.moves = 0;\\n this.goldFound = false;\\n this.goldPos = null;\\n this.carrying = false;\\n this.lastMove = null;\\n this.stuckCount = 0;\\n \\n this.turn = function(cell) {\\n this.moves++;\\n \\n // Prevent infinite loops\\n if (this.moves > 2500) {\\n return \\\"right\\\";\\n }\\n \\n // Check for gold in current cell or neighbors\\n if (cell.type === 3) {\\n this.goldFound = true;\\n this.goldPos = {level: cell.level};\\n // If we're at the gold and high enough, we're done\\n if (cell.level >= 8) {\\n return \\\"pickup\\\";\\n }\\n }\\n \\n // Check neighbors for gold\\n const neighbors = [\\n {dir: \\\"left\\\", data: cell.left},\\n {dir: \\\"up\\\", data: cell.up}, \\n {dir: \\\"right\\\", data: cell.right},\\n {dir: \\\"down\\\", data: cell.down}\\n ];\\n \\n for (let neighbor of neighbors) {\\n if (neighbor.data.type === 3) {\\n this.goldFound = true;\\n this.goldPos = {level: neighbor.data.level};\\n }\\n }\\n \\n // If current cell has a block and we're not carrying, pick it up\\n if (cell.type === 2 && !this.carrying) {\\n this.carrying = true;\\n return \\\"pickup\\\";\\n }\\n \\n // If we're carrying and at gold location, build up if needed\\n if (this.carrying && cell.type === 3 && cell.level < 8) {\\n this.carrying = false;\\n return \\\"drop\\\";\\n }\\n \\n // Movement helper\\n const canMove = (neighborData) => {\\n return neighborData.type !== 1 && \\n Math.abs(neighborData.level - cell.level) <= 1;\\n };\\n \\n // Simple exploration strategy: prefer unblocked paths\\n const validMoves = [];\\n \\n if (canMove(cell.left)) validMoves.push(\\\"left\\\");\\n if (canMove(cell.up)) validMoves.push(\\\"up\\\");\\n if (canMove(cell.right)) validMoves.push(\\\"right\\\");\\n if (canMove(cell.down)) validMoves.push(\\\"down\\\");\\n \\n // If no valid moves and carrying, drop\\n if (validMoves.length === 0 && this.carrying) {\\n this.carrying = false;\\n return \\\"drop\\\";\\n }\\n \\n // If stuck, try any direction\\n if (validMoves.length === 0) {\\n return \\\"right\\\";\\n }\\n \\n // Avoid going back to previous position if possible\\n let bestMoves = validMoves.filter(move => {\\n const opposite = {\\\"left\\\": \\\"right\\\", \\\"right\\\": \\\"left\\\", \\\"up\\\": \\\"down\\\", \\\"down\\\": \\\"up\\\"};\\n return move !== opposite[this.lastMove];\\n });\\n \\n if (bestMoves.length === 0) {\\n bestMoves = validMoves;\\n }\\n \\n // Prefer directions toward blocks or unexplored areas\\n let priorityMove = null;\\n for (let move of bestMoves) {\\n const neighborData = cell[move];\\n if (neighborData.type === 2) { // Block\\n priorityMove = move;\\n break;\\n }\\n if (neighborData.type === 3) { // Gold\\n priorityMove = move;\\n break;\\n }\\n }\\n \\n const chosenMove = priorityMove || bestMoves[this.moves % bestMoves.length];\\n this.lastMove = chosenMove;\\n \\n return chosenMove;\\n };\\n}\\nEOF\\n\",\n \"duration\": 0.1\n }\n ]\n}" + }, + "observation_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-10/prompt.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 113, + "content": "New Terminal Output:\n\nroot@rack-ge107-ya-20250517193277:/app# cat > solution.js << 'EOF'\n> function Stacker() {\n> this.moves = 0;\n> this.goldFound = false;\n> this.goldPos = null;\n> this.carrying = false;\n> this.lastMove = null;\n> this.stuckCount = 0;\n>\n> this.turn = function(cell) {\n> this.moves++;\n>\n> // Prevent infinite loops\n> if (this.moves > 2500) {\n> return \"right\";\n> }\n>\n> // Check for gold in current cell or neighbors\n> if (cell.type === 3) {\n> this.goldFound = true;\n> this.goldPos = {level: cell.level};\n> // If we're at the gold and high enough, we're done\n> if (cell.level >= 8) {\n> return \"pickup\";\n> }\n> }\n>\n> // Check neighbors for gold\n> const neighbors = [\n> {dir: \"left\", data: cell.left},\n> {dir: \"up\", data: cell.up},\n> {dir: \"right\", data: cell.right},\n> {dir: \"down\", data: cell.down}\n> ];\n>\n> for (let neighbor of neighbors) {\n> if (neighbor.data.type === 3) {\n> this.goldFound = true;\n> this.goldPos = {level: neighbor.data.level};\n> }\n> }\n>\n> // If current cell has a block and we're not carrying, pick it up\n> if (cell.type === 2 && !this.carrying) {\n> this.carrying = true;\n> return \"pickup\";\n> }\n>\n> // If we're carrying and at gold location, build up if needed\n> if (this.carrying && cell.type === 3 && cell.level < 8) {\n> this.carrying = false;\n> return \"drop\";\n> }\n>\n> // Movement helper\n> const canMove = (neighborData) => {\n> return neighborData.type !== 1 &&\n> Math.abs(neighborData.level - cell.level) <= 1;\n> };\n>\n> // Simple exploration strategy: prefer unblocked paths\n> const validMoves = [];\n>\n> if (canMove(cell.left)) validMoves.push(\"left\");\n> if (canMove(cell.up)) validMoves.push(\"up\");\n> if (canMove(cell.right)) validMoves.push(\"right\");\n> if (canMove(cell.down)) validMoves.push(\"down\");\n>\n> // If no valid moves and carrying, drop\n> if (validMoves.length === 0 && this.carrying) {\n> this.carrying = false;\n> return \"drop\";\n> }\n>\n> // If stuck, try any direction\n> if (validMoves.length === 0) {\n> return \"right\";\n> }\n>\n> // Avoid going back to previous position if possible\n> let bestMoves = validMoves.filter(move => {\n> const opposite = {\"left\": \"right\", \"right\": \"left\", \"up\": \"down\", \"down\": \"up\"};\n> return move !== opposite[this.lastMove];\n> });\n>\n> if (bestMoves.length === 0) {\n> bestMoves = validMoves;\n> }\n>\n> // Prefer directions toward blocks or unexplored areas\n> let priorityMove = null;\n> for (let move of bestMoves) {\n> const neighborData = cell[move];\n> if (neighborData.type === 2) { // Block\n> priorityMove = move;\n> break;\n> }\n> if (neighborData.type === 3) { // Gold\n> priorityMove = move;\n> break;\n> }\n> }\n>\n> const chosenMove = priorityMove || bestMoves[this.moves % bestMoves.length];\n> this.lastMove = chosenMove;\n>\n> return chosenMove;\n> };\n> }\n> EOF\nroot@rack-ge107-ya-20250517193277:/app#\n" + } + }, + { + "step_id": 12, + "labels": [ + "unuseful" + ], + "action_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-11/response.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 10, + "content": "{\n \"analysis\": \"The test is still running. Let me wait a bit longer to see if this simpler solution performs better. The lack of immediate output suggests the game is running but may still be taking time to complete the trials.\",\n \"plan\": \"I'll wait a bit more for the test to complete. If it's still hanging, I may need to create an even simpler solution or check if there are other issues with my approach.\",\n \"commands\": [\n {\n \"keystrokes\": \"\",\n \"duration\": 15.0\n }\n ]\n}" + }, + "observation_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-12/prompt.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 4, + "content": "New Terminal Output:\n\nDEBUG: invoking game.run(3)\n\n" + } + }, + { + "step_id": 13, + "labels": [ + "incorrect" + ], + "action_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-12/response.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 10, + "content": "{\n \"analysis\": \"The test is still running without output, which suggests it might be stuck again. The issue could be that even my simplified solution is not efficient enough or there might be a fundamental problem with my approach. Let me interrupt and try a much more basic solution focused on pure exploration and immediate actions.\",\n \"plan\": \"I'll interrupt the test and create an extremely simple solution that just explores randomly, picks up blocks immediately when found, and drops them at gold locations. This should avoid any complex logic that might cause hanging.\",\n \"commands\": [\n {\n \"keystrokes\": \"C-c\",\n \"duration\": 1.0\n }\n ]\n}" + }, + "observation_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-13/prompt.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 5, + "content": "New Terminal Output:\n\nDEBUG: invoking game.run(3)\n^C\nroot@rack-ge107-ya-20250517193277:/app#\n" + } + }, + { + "step_id": 14, + "labels": [ + "incorrect" + ], + "action_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-13/response.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 10, + "content": "{\n \"analysis\": \"The test was interrupted again. My solutions are still causing issues. I need to create a much more basic solution that focuses on the absolute essentials: random exploration with immediate block pickup and dropping at gold. Let me create the simplest possible working solution.\",\n \"plan\": \"I'll create a very basic solution that uses simple random movement with preferences for blocks and gold, immediate pickup/drop actions, and minimal state tracking to avoid any complex logic that could cause infinite loops.\",\n \"commands\": [\n {\n \"keystrokes\": \"cat > solution.js << 'EOF'\\nfunction Stacker() {\\n this.carrying = false;\\n this.turnCount = 0;\\n \\n this.turn = function(cell) {\\n this.turnCount++;\\n \\n // Safety: prevent infinite loops\\n if (this.turnCount > 3000) {\\n return \\\"right\\\";\\n }\\n \\n // If we're on gold and it's high enough, win\\n if (cell.type === 3 && cell.level >= 8) {\\n return \\\"pickup\\\";\\n }\\n \\n // If we're on a block and not carrying, pick it up\\n if (cell.type === 2 && !this.carrying) {\\n this.carrying = true;\\n return \\\"pickup\\\";\\n }\\n \\n // If we're carrying and on gold (but not high enough), drop\\n if (this.carrying && cell.type === 3) {\\n this.carrying = false;\\n return \\\"drop\\\";\\n }\\n \\n // Check what moves are possible\\n const moves = [];\\n if (cell.left.type !== 1 && Math.abs(cell.left.level - cell.level) <= 1) {\\n moves.push(\\\"left\\\");\\n }\\n if (cell.up.type !== 1 && Math.abs(cell.up.level - cell.level) <= 1) {\\n moves.push(\\\"up\\\");\\n }\\n if (cell.right.type !== 1 && Math.abs(cell.right.level - cell.level) <= 1) {\\n moves.push(\\\"right\\\");\\n }\\n if (cell.down.type !== 1 && Math.abs(cell.down.level - cell.level) <= 1) {\\n moves.push(\\\"down\\\");\\n }\\n \\n // If no moves possible and carrying, drop\\n if (moves.length === 0) {\\n if (this.carrying) {\\n this.carrying = false;\\n return \\\"drop\\\";\\n }\\n return \\\"right\\\"; // Fallback\\n }\\n \\n // Prefer moves toward gold or blocks\\n const priorities = [];\\n \\n if (moves.includes(\\\"left\\\") && (cell.left.type === 3 || cell.left.type === 2)) {\\n priorities.push(\\\"left\\\");\\n }\\n if (moves.includes(\\\"up\\\") && (cell.up.type === 3 || cell.up.type === 2)) {\\n priorities.push(\\\"up\\\");\\n }\\n if (moves.includes(\\\"right\\\") && (cell.right.type === 3 || cell.right.type === 2)) {\\n priorities.push(\\\"right\\\");\\n }\\n if (moves.includes(\\\"down\\\") && (cell.down.type === 3 || cell.down.type === 2)) {\\n priorities.push(\\\"down\\\");\\n }\\n \\n // Use priority moves if available, otherwise random valid move\\n const availableMoves = priorities.length > 0 ? priorities : moves;\\n return availableMoves[this.turnCount % availableMoves.length];\\n };\\n}\\nEOF\\n\",\n \"duration\": 0.1\n }\n ]\n}" + }, + "observation_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-14/prompt.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 117, + "content": "New Terminal Output:\n\nroot@rack-ge107-ya-20250517193277:/app# cat > solution.js << 'EOF'\n= 1 && Math.abs(cell.right.level - cell.level) <= 1) {\n moves.push(\"right\");\n }\n if (cell.down.type !== 1 && Math.abs(cell.down.level - cell.level) <= 1) {\n moves.push(\"down\");\n }\n\n // If no moves possible and carrying, drop\n if (moves.length === 0) {\n if (this.carrying) {\n this.carrying = false;\n return \"drop\";\n }\n return \"right\"; // Fallback\n }\n\n // Prefer moves toward gold or blocks\n const priorities = [];\n\n if (moves.includes(\"left\") && (cell.left.type === 3 || cell.left.type === 2)) {\n priorities.push(\"left\");\n }\n if (moves.includes(\"up\") && (cell.up.type === 3 || cell.up.type === 2)) {\n priorities.push(\"up\");\n }\n if (moves.includes(\"right\") && (cell.right.type === 3 || cell.right.type === 2)) {\n priorities.push(\"right\");\n }\n if (moves.includes(\"down\") && (cell.down.type === 3 || cell.down.type === 2)) {\n priorities.push(\"down\");\n }\n\n // Use priority moves if available, otherwise random valid move\n const availableMoves = priorities.length > 0 ? priorities : moves;\n return availableMoves[this.turnCount % availableMoves.length];\n };\n}\nEOF\n> function Stacker() {\n> this.carrying = false;\n> this.turnCount = 0;\n>\n> this.turn = function(cell) {\n> this.turnCount++;\n>\n> // Safety: prevent infinite loops\n> if (this.turnCount > 3000) {\n> return \"right\";\n> }\n>\n> // If we're on gold and it's high enough, win\n> if (cell.type === 3 && cell.level >= 8) {\n> return \"pickup\";\n> }\n>\n> // If we're on a block and not carrying, pick it up\n> if (cell.type === 2 && !this.carrying) {\n> this.carrying = true;\n> return \"pickup\";\n> }\n>\n> // If we're carrying and on gold (but not high enough), drop\n> if (this.carrying && cell.type === 3) {\n> this.carrying = false;\n> return \"drop\";\n> }\n>\n> // Check what moves are possible\n> const moves = [];\n> if (cell.left.type !== 1 && Math.abs(cell.left.level - cell.level) <= 1) {\n> moves.push(\"left\");\n> }\n> if (cell.up.type !== 1 && Math.abs(cell.up.level - cell.level) <= 1) {\n> moves.push(\"up\");\n> }\n> if (cell.right.type !== 1 && Math.abs(cell.right.level - cell.level) <= 1) {\n> moves.push(\"right\");\n> }\n> if (cell.down.type !== 1 && Math.abs(cell.down.level - cell.level) <= 1) {\n> moves.push(\"down\");\n> }\n>\n> // If no moves possible and carrying, drop\n> if (moves.length === 0) {\n> if (this.carrying) {\n> this.carrying = false;\n> return \"drop\";\n> }\n> return \"right\"; // Fallback\n> }\n>\n> // Prefer moves toward gold or blocks\n> const priorities = [];\n>\n> if (moves.includes(\"left\") && (cell.left.type === 3 || cell.left.type === 2)) {\n> priorities.push(\"left\");\n> }\n> if (moves.includes(\"up\") && (cell.up.type === 3 || cell.up.type === 2)) {\n> priorities.push(\"up\");\n> }\n> if (moves.includes(\"right\") && (cell.right.type === 3 || cell.right.type === 2)) {\n> priorities.push(\"right\");\n> }\n> if (moves.includes(\"down\") && (cell.down.type === 3 || cell.down.type === 2)) {\n> priorities.push(\"down\");\n> }\n>\n> // Use priority moves if available, otherwise random valid move\n> const availableMoves = priorities.length > 0 ? priorities : moves;\n> return availableMoves[this.turnCount % availableMoves.length];\n> };\n> }\n> EOF\nroot@rack-ge107-ya-20250517193277:/app#\n" + } + }, + { + "step_id": 16, + "labels": [ + "unuseful" + ], + "action_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-15/response.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 10, + "content": "{\n \"analysis\": \"The test is still running without output. This suggests there may be a fundamental issue with the game setup or my understanding of the mechanics. Let me wait a bit more and then check if there are any results generated.\",\n \"plan\": \"I'll wait a bit longer for the test to complete, then check if any results files were generated. If it's still hanging, I may need to examine the challenge.js file more carefully to understand what might be causing the issue.\",\n \"commands\": [\n {\n \"keystrokes\": \"\",\n \"duration\": 20.0\n }\n ]\n}" + }, + "observation_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-16/prompt.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 4, + "content": "New Terminal Output:\n\nDEBUG: invoking game.run(3)\n\n" + } + }, + { + "step_id": 17, + "labels": [ + "incorrect" + ], + "action_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-16/response.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 10, + "content": "{\n \"analysis\": \"The test is still running without any output after a significant amount of time. This suggests there might be a fundamental issue with either my solution or the test setup. Let me interrupt and check if any results were generated, and also examine the challenge.js file more carefully to understand the exact requirements.\",\n \"plan\": \"I'll interrupt the test and check for any generated files. Then I'll examine the challenge.js file more thoroughly to understand the game mechanics better and identify what might be causing the hanging issue.\",\n \"commands\": [\n {\n \"keystrokes\": \"C-c\",\n \"duration\": 1.0\n }\n ]\n}" + }, + "observation_ref": { + "path": "traj/terminus2/Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking/terminus2-claude/solve-maze-challenge/solve-maze-challenge.1-of-1.2025-12-15__16-26-13/agent-logs/episode-17/prompt.txt", + "line_start": 1, + "line_end": 5, + "content": "New Terminal Output:\n\nDEBUG: invoking game.run(3)\n^C\nroot@rack-ge107-ya-20250517193277:/app#\n" + } + } + ] + } + ], + "generated_at": "2026-03-05T00:31:36+00:00", + "artifact_path": "bench_artifacts/full/terminus2-Anthropic__Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514-Thinking-solve-maze-challenge-27b84da7.tar.zst" + }, + { + "traj_id": "terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-db-wal-recovery-5f90b39b", + "agent": "Terminus2", + "model": "DeepSeek/DeepSeek-V3.2", + "task_name": "db-wal-recovery", + "task_slug": "db-wal-recovery-5f90b39b", + "difficulty": "medium", + "category": "file-operations", + "tags": [ + "database", + "encryption", + "recovery" + ], + "solved": false, + "step_count": 106, + "stages": [ + { + "stage_id": 1, + "start_step_id": 1, + "end_step_id": 7 + }, + { + "stage_id": 2, + "start_step_id": 8, + "end_step_id": 14 + }, + { + "stage_id": 3, + "start_step_id": 15, + "end_step_id": 22 + }, + { + "stage_id": 4, + "start_step_id": 23, + "end_step_id": 32 + }, + { + "stage_id": 5, + "start_step_id": 33, + "end_step_id": 41 + }, + { + "stage_id": 6, + "start_step_id": 42, + "end_step_id": 49 + }, + { + "stage_id": 7, + "start_step_id": 50, + "end_step_id": 59 + }, + { + "stage_id": 8, + "start_step_id": 60, + "end_step_id": 64 + }, + { + "stage_id": 9, + "start_step_id": 65, + "end_step_id": 80 + }, + { + "stage_id": 10, + "start_step_id": 81, + "end_step_id": 85 + }, + { + "stage_id": 11, + "start_step_id": 86, + "end_step_id": 90 + }, + { + "stage_id": 12, + "start_step_id": 91, + "end_step_id": 100 + }, + { + "stage_id": 13, + "start_step_id": 101, + "end_step_id": 102 + }, + { + "stage_id": 14, + "start_step_id": 103, + "end_step_id": 106 + } + ], + "stage_count": 14, + "incorrect_error_stage_count": 1, + "trial_name": "db-wal-recovery.1-of-1.2025-12-30__11-51-01", + "source_relpath": "terminus2/DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2/terminus2-ds/db-wal-recovery/db-wal-recovery.1-of-1.2025-12-30__11-51-01", + "annotation_relpath": "agent_failure_analysis/step_annotations_all/terminus2/DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2/terminus2-ds/db-wal-recovery", + "incorrect_stages": [ + { + "stage_id": 13, + "incorrect_step_ids": [ + 101 + ], + "unuseful_step_ids": [], + "steps": [ + { + "step_id": 101, + "labels": [ + "incorrect" + ], + "action_ref": null, + "observation_ref": null + } + ] + } + ], + "generated_at": "2026-03-05T00:31:36+00:00", + "artifact_path": "bench_artifacts/full/terminus2-DeepSeek__DeepSeek-V3.2-db-wal-recovery-5f90b39b.tar.zst" + } +] \ No newline at end of file From e963d9e7982ee48b36007396fd4edd8ad90d11d0 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Drew Stone Date: Mon, 3 Aug 2026 01:26:44 -0600 Subject: [PATCH 3/3] =?UTF-8?q?docs(trace-analysis):=20family-framing=20sm?= =?UTF-8?q?oke=20readout=20=E2=80=94=20arm=20killed=20by=20its=20pre-regis?= =?UTF-8?q?tered=20no-harm=20gate?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- .../family-framing/smoke-readout.md | 28 +++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 28 insertions(+) create mode 100644 benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/smoke-readout.md diff --git a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/smoke-readout.md b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/smoke-readout.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..049a726d --- /dev/null +++ b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-oht2-20260801/family-framing/smoke-readout.md @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +# Family-framing smoke readout — arm KILLED (2026-08-03) + +Pre-registration: [`preregistration.md`](./preregistration.md) (gates committed before any paid run). + +## OpenHands pair (CLEAN instrument: 0/12 and 1/12 failed runs) + +| Arm | micro F1 | recall | precision | findings | pad/run | failed | +| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | +| stock | 0.3023 | 0.250 | 0.382 | 34 | 1.17 | 0/12 | +| framing | 0.2151 | 0.192 | 0.244 | 41 | 2.45 | 1/12 | + +- **No-harm gate VIOLATED**: 0.2151 < 0.3023 − 0.05, robust to the one rate-limited run (dropping that case-rep from both arms: 0.3291 vs 0.2299). +- **Pad-ratio kill component TRIPPED**: 2.45/1.17 = 2.1× > 1.6× threshold. +- Paired recall delta −0.1786, 95% CI [−0.3571, −0.0119] (excludes zero, n=6 clusters). +- Mechanism: coverage framing raises enumeration (34→41 findings) but sprays — far-gold predictions rise 22→34 and precision collapses. + +## Terminus2 pair (INVALID instrument day — recorded, not used) + +stock 0.2533 (5/12 failed), framing 0.1370 (4/12 failed). +Both runs exceed the 10% failed-run validity bar; the failures are z.ai seat degradation under load (429 request-limit + long-reasoning aborts; a single-call probe succeeds instantly), and the stock-T2 run additionally overlapped another LLM batch for ~7 minutes after an operator mutex error (ledgered). +Directionally consistent with the OpenHands kill; carries no evidential weight. +The pooled pre-registered gate table therefore cannot be computed; the arm dies on the clean OpenHands half alone, which the pre-registration's no-harm gate permits. + +## Decision + +**KILL family-framing** (hand-authored coverage instructions) — the fourth consecutive hand-written prompt arm to fail against stock this campaign. +Retained value: the Phase-1 decomposition stands — the far class (48.9% OH / 46.5% T2 of gold mass vs 14.4% mini-SWE; snapFar counterfactual +32.3pp / +25.4pp) is the measured target for the next arm. +Next arm, evidence-ranked: family-GEPA — the repo's optimizer trained on the tuning-legal OH/T2 dev pools with the objective grader, the only intervention class that has ever survived certification here.