diff --git a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/LEADERBOARD.md b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/LEADERBOARD.md new file mode 100644 index 00000000..9c9d58ab --- /dev/null +++ b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/LEADERBOARD.md @@ -0,0 +1,277 @@ +# CodeTraceBench Official-Metric Leaderboard + +Every real-model trace-analysis configuration this repository has measured, ranked on CodeTraceBench's published metric, with the instrument-quality evidence needed to decide which numbers are trustworthy. +Snapshot date: 2026-08-03. +All numbers are extracted from run artifacts on disk; none are recomputed with different semantics (see [Reproduce](#reproduce) for the bit-match proof). + +## The metric + +**Official all-row F1** is CodeTraceBench's published score: per-trajectory F1 over predicted vs labeled incorrect step ids, averaged over every row of the split. +The reference implementation is [`src/analyst/benchmark-public-calibration.ts`](../../src/analyst/benchmark-public-calibration.ts) (`officialCodeTraceF1`), which matches the scorer snippet in the upstream CodeTracer `README.md` ("Evaluation Metrics") symbol for symbol. +Three properties matter when reading any number below: + +1. A row with an empty label set scores 0 regardless of the prediction, and a row where the analyst run failed scores 0. + The metric therefore mixes detection quality with split composition: a split with 16/32 label-empty rows has a hard ceiling of 0.50, and a split with 2/32 label-empty rows has a ceiling of 0.94. +2. **Official all-row F1 is only comparable within a single split.** + Cross-split comparisons compare label composition, not analysts. +3. Every artifact also records our diagnostic **scored micro F1** (micro precision/recall over labeled-positive rows plus solved label-empty controls, failures excluded from predictions but counted). + Micro F1 is reported as context, never as the ranking metric. + +## Citation rules + +1. Cite a number only together with its split's labels digest and status from the [instrument-quality ledger](#instrument-quality-ledger). + Numbers from SPENT splits are readable history and may not back new public claims. +2. Same-rows only: a comparison row is honest only if both tools ran the identical trajectory set and labels (byte-verified by the `traceFiles[].sha256` and `labelsSha256` fields embedded in each artifact). + Numbers lifted from a paper on different rows are context, and must carry the not-same-rows caveat. +3. Config identity is `protocolSha256` (and `implementationSha256`), not the narrative name. + Run identity for reproduction is `runIdentitySha256` plus `startedAt` (identical configs re-run share `runIdentitySha256`). +4. A run with failed observations keeps its official score (failures score 0) but must disclose the failure count. + Runs from parallel measurement chains are flagged: parallel execution against this provider measurably destroys runs (see protocol notes). +5. Smoke runs (fewer than the full split's rows) are never rankable. + +## Configurations + +All runs use analyst model `glm-5.2` (z.ai), dataset `NJU-LINK/CodeTraceBench` revision `aa213b84ffb6690fc37ca15766d6ca174ec36d4d`, runners `empty` + one analyst, `runnerOrderSeed 0`, census case selection unless noted. +Narrative labels below come from the run naming and the `.evolve/progress.md` ledger; the digests are authoritative. + +| Label | `protocolSha256` (8) | `implementationSha256` (8) | Description | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | +| direct-v1 | `166e399c` | `4dba263b` | Retired one-shot direct runner, incorrect-step adapter; two arms: with final-test artifacts, and trajectory-only ("fair") | +| direct-blocks | `2aa97505` | `b959a4c1` | One-shot direct runner, incorrect-block adapter | +| rlm-stock-r0 | `bd0347aa` | `87e10f21` | Recursive DSPy RLM analyst, pre-GEPA stock prompt | +| rlm-gepa (g) | `4006588e` | `027db213` | GEPA-round-1 optimized prompt; promoted to stock 2026-08-01 | +| rlm-incumbent (inc) | `5811b534` | `027db213` | Incumbent stock prompt at certification time | +| rlm-width-W (w) | `dc8e043a` | `1de4cccc` | Hand-designed width-adaptive arm; rejected by its pre-registered gate | +| rlm-stock (cert2) | `747ac229` | `a3f5a820` | Shipped stock prompt at 2026-08-01 (post GEPA-r1 promotion), updated implementation | +| rlm-gepa-r2 (g2) | `0629426b` | `a3f5a820` | GEPA-round-2 winner candidate; rejected (below stock on both cross-family splits) | +| rlm-framing | `0bd09994` | `a3f5a820` | Family-framing prompt variant (dev smoke only) | +| CodeTracer (pinned) | n/a | upstream `2d302191` | Upstream CodeTracer at revision `2d302191dd07e7c0c2da6f7a5e9451c7cbb62d34`, memory disabled, trajectory-only | +| empty | n/a | n/a | Constant baseline embedded in every run; predicts nothing; official all-row F1 = 0 on every split | + +## Instrument-quality ledger + +Constant-rule calibration computed directly from each labels file under the official per-row semantics (`leaderboard/calibrate-splits.py`). +`flag-last-step` predicts exactly the final step of every trajectory; `flag-all-steps` predicts every step. +A split cannot certify a configuration whose score a constant rule approaches. + +| Split | Labels sha256 (8) | n | Positives | Label-empty | Gold steps | flag-last-step | last-step hit rows | flag-all-steps | Status | +| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | +| mini-SWE cert32 ("dev32") | `5d8b4024` | 32 | 16 | 16 | 55 | 0.0000 | 0/32 | 0.0956 | SPENT (tuning split; published baseline) | +| mini-SWE holdout-1 | `53af5ffe` | 32 | 16 | 16 | 76 | 0.0437 | 3/32 | 0.1125 | SPENT (used for GEPA train/selection) | +| mini-SWE holdout-2 | `2db46579` | 32 | 30 | 2 | 188 | 0.0879 | 9/32 | 0.3326 | Burned once (2026-08-01 certification); mini-SWE claims closed | +| mini-SWE split3 remainder-37 | `d0347ec7` | 37 | 37 | 0 | 58 | 0.1099 | 5/37 | 0.1125 | DEGENERATE for config selection (see finding below) | +| mini-SWE thin-blind-28 (restored) | `bf573bec` | 28 | 28 | 0 | 40 | 0.1310 | 4/28 | 0.1061 | Smoke only; input-blindness-fixed restoration of split3 rows | +| OpenHands cert32 | `2cf55793` | 32 | 16 | 16 | 87 | 0.0125 | 1/32 | 0.1021 | SPENT (burned 2026-08-01 cert2) | +| Terminus2 cert32 | `24e47110` | 32 | 16 | 16 | 100 | 0.0000 | 0/32 | 0.0770 | SPENT (burned 2026-08-01 cert2) | +| OpenHands dev pool | `2bd62a9d` | 464 | 146 | 318 | 494 | 0.0313 | 22/464 | 0.0455 | Tuning-legal | +| Terminus2 dev pool | `8388ffde` | 188 | 50 | 138 | 338 | 0.0000 | 0/188 | 0.0395 | Tuning-legal | +| SWE-agent 106 | `399cfed3` | 106 | 57 | 49 | 200 | 0.1895 | 38/106 | 0.0941 | CLEAN — imported 2026-08-02, no analyst run yet | + +### Finding: split3 cannot select between configurations + +On split3 (37 rows, all positive, only 58 gold steps — 1.6 per row), the three certified configurations land within 0.54 points of each other on the official metric (g 0.1844, inc 0.1830, w 0.1791) while the flag-last-step constant rule scores 0.1099. +The metric spread between real configs is smaller than the gap to a trivial rule, and the two metrics disagree on the ranking (micro F1 orders w 0.1805 > g 0.1799 > inc 0.1693). +Any leaderboard position established on this split is noise; the split is retained only as evidence about the thin-gold narrow regime. + +### Finding: SWE-agent labels carry a last-step artifact + +On the freshly imported SWE-agent 106 rows, flagging only each trajectory's final step scores official all-row F1 0.1895 by hitting 38/106 rows — higher than every measured cross-family configuration score on the OpenHands and Terminus2 cert32 splits (0.118–0.150). +(A prior session note quoted this as 39/106; the executed recomputation in `leaderboard/calibrate-splits.py` gives 38/106.) +Any future SWE-agent leaderboard entry must publish the constant-rule row beside the model row, or the number is not interpretable. + +### Finding: parallel measurement chains destroy runs + +`mp-tw-full-h1` (parallel chain) failed all 96/96 observations — 66 scored plus 30 unlabeled — in 4.3 minutes (96 cost-ledger records with unknown cost), while the serially executed `mp-tw-serial-h1` on the same split completed 94/96 observations. +All rankable numbers below come from serial chains; parallel-chain runs are listed as non-rankable. + +### Note: holdout-2 composition + +Holdout-2 is cascade-skewed by construction: 30/32 rows positive, 188 gold steps. +Its official numbers (0.48–0.54) are not comparable to any 16/32-positive split (ceiling differences dominate); they are comparable only within the holdout-2 table. + +## Leaderboards + +One table per split, ranked on official all-row F1. +"Failed" counts scored observations (positives + trusted negatives) that errored; they score 0 and stay in the mean. +Costs are settled totals from each run's `cost-ledger.jsonl`; the 20260730 trio costs are the same-rate estimates from that run's README. + +### mini-SWE cert32 — labels `5d8b4024`, 32 rows, SPENT + +| # | Config | Reps | Obs | Official all-row F1 | Micro F1 | Failed | Cost USD | Date | Artifact | +| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- | +| 1 | rlm-width-W (serial) | 3 | 96 | 0.1526 | 0.3231 | 2/72 | 9.96 | 2026-08-01 | `salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-serial-dev` | +| 2 | direct-v1 (trajectory-only) | 2 | 64 | 0.1502 | 0.3099 | 2/48 | 1.16 | 2026-07-30 | repo `codetracebench-glm52-20260730/fair-result.json` | +| 3 | direct-v1 (+ test artifacts) | 2 | 64 | 0.1347 | 0.3273 | 1/48 | 1.21 | 2026-07-30 | repo `codetracebench-glm52-20260730/result.json` | +| 4 | direct-blocks | 2 | 64 | 0.1296 | 0.3007 | 7/48 | n/a | 2026-07-31 | repo `codetracebench-phasea-blocks-20260731` (= `salvaged-runs/ctb-phasea3`) | +| 5 | CodeTracer (pinned, trajectory-only) | 2 | 64 | 0.1161 | 0.2754 | 2/48 | 7.27 | 2026-07-30 | repo `codetracebench-glm52-20260730/codetracer-result.json` | +| 6 | rlm-stock-r0 | 2 | 64 | 0.1021 | 0.3282 | 3/48 | n/a | 2026-07-31 | repo `codetracebench-rlm-glm52-20260731` (= `salvaged-runs/rlm-full7`) | + +Non-rankable on this split: `mp-tw-full-dev` (parallel chain, 8/72 failed, official 0.1486, $9.79); `rlm-full5`/`rlm-full6` (46/48 and 34/48 failed, official 0.0179 each — broken runs); smokes `rlm-smoke9`, `rlm-chk`, `ctb-smoke`, `gepa-run/cli-proof`, `mp-tw-smoke-narrow` (1–4 obs). + +The direct-v1 rows and the CodeTracer row are the same-rows head-to-head published 2026-07-30: identical 32 trajectories, identical labels, same model, and CodeTracer's own normalizer preparing the inputs. +On that run CodeTracer used 933 model calls, 10.44M uncached input tokens, and $7.27 (same-rate repricing; its own price config reported $63.64) against Agent Eval's 64 calls and $1.16–$1.21. + +### mini-SWE holdout-1 — labels `53af5ffe`, 32 rows, SPENT + +| # | Config | Reps | Obs | Official all-row F1 | Micro F1 | Failed | Cost USD | Date | Artifact | +| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- | +| 1 | rlm-width-W (serial) | 3 | 96 | 0.1737 | 0.3542 | 2/66 | 11.33 | 2026-08-01 | `salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-serial-h1` | + +Non-rankable: `mp-tw-full-h1` (parallel wipeout, 66/66 failed, official 0.0000); smokes `mp-tw-h1-probe`, `mp-tw-smoke-wide`, `mp-tw-smoke-wide-rep` (1–2 obs). + +### mini-SWE holdout-2 — labels `2db46579`, 32 rows (30 positive), burned once 2026-08-01 + +| # | Config | Reps | Obs | Official all-row F1 | Micro F1 | Failed | Cost USD | Artifact | +| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | +| 1 | rlm-gepa (g) | 2 | 64 | 0.5427 | 0.6288 | 0/60 | 7.96 | `certification/cert-g-h2` | +| 2 | rlm-incumbent (inc) | 2 | 64 | 0.5246 | 0.5641 | 0/60 | 7.97 | `certification/cert-inc-h2` | +| 3 | rlm-width-W (w) | 2 | 64 | 0.4805 | 0.5224 | 1/60 | 7.67 | `certification/cert-w-h2` | + +Constant flag-last-step on this split: 0.0879 — the ranked configs clear it by 5.5–6.2×, so holdout-2 discriminates. +This is the certification that promoted the GEPA prompt to stock (evolve ledger, 2026-08-01: pooled-sealed micro 0.4809 vs incumbent 0.4285 over both burned splits). + +### mini-SWE split3 remainder-37 — labels `d0347ec7`, 37 rows, DEGENERATE + +| # | Config | Reps | Obs | Official all-row F1 | Micro F1 | Failed | Cost USD | Artifact | +| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | +| 1 | rlm-gepa (g) | 2 | 74 | 0.1844 | 0.1799 | 0/74 | 9.07 | `certification/cert-g-s3` | +| 2 | rlm-incumbent (inc) | 2 | 74 | 0.1830 | 0.1693 | 1/74 | 9.24 | `certification/cert-inc-s3` | +| 3 | rlm-width-W (w) | 2 | 74 | 0.1791 | 0.1805 | 1/74 | 8.72 | `certification/cert-w-s3` | + +Ranked for completeness only; see the degeneracy finding above. + +### OpenHands cert32 — labels `2cf55793`, 32 rows, SPENT + +| # | Config | Reps | Obs | Official all-row F1 | Micro F1 | Failed | Cost USD | Artifact | +| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | +| 1 | rlm-stock | 2 | 64 | 0.1381 | 0.2436 | 0/60 | 7.33 | `cert2/stock-oh` | +| 2 | rlm-gepa-r2 (g2) | 2 | 64 | 0.1220 | 0.1828 | 1/60 | 8.15 | `cert2/g2-oh` | + +### Terminus2 cert32 — labels `24e47110`, 32 rows, SPENT + +| # | Config | Reps | Obs | Official all-row F1 | Micro F1 | Failed | Cost USD | Artifact | +| ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | +| 1 | rlm-stock | 2 | 64 | 0.1497 | 0.1896 | 0/52 | 7.56 | `cert2/stock-t2` | +| 2 | rlm-gepa-r2 (g2) | 2 | 64 | 0.1186 | 0.1633 | 2/52 | 8.03 | `cert2/g2-t2` | + +The cross-family result is the sharpest fact in this document: the prompt GEPA-optimized on mini-SWE traces transfers WORSE than stock to both other agent families (−1.6pp OpenHands, −3.1pp Terminus2 official). +For scale, a flag-last-step constant rule reaches 0.1895 on the (different-split) SWE-agent labels — absolute scores in the 0.12–0.15 range must always be read against their own split's constant-rule calibration. +`cert2/status.txt` records exit code 2 for both g2 arms; their artifacts contain complete 64-observation sets (1–2 failed observations). + +### Dev smokes (tuning-legal pools, non-rankable) + +| Run | Split (labels) | Obs | Official | Micro | Failed | Cost USD | Date | +| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | +| `family-framing-smoke/stock-openhands` | OH dev 6-row smoke (`1b687899`) | 12 | 0.4611 | 0.3023 | 0/12 | 1.51 | 2026-08-03 | +| `family-framing-smoke/framing-openhands` | OH dev 6-row smoke (`1b687899`) | 12 | 0.2149 | 0.2151 | 1/12 | 1.38 | 2026-08-03 | +| `split3-restored/smoke-run` | thin-blind-28 subset (`bf573bec`) | 8 | 0.1958 | 0.2000 | 0/8 | n/a | 2026-08-01 | + +A `family-framing-smoke/stock-terminus2` run was in flight (holding the measurement mutex) at this snapshot's extraction time, 2026-08-03T06:32Z; it is not included. + +## Published-tool context (NOT same rows) + +The CodeTracer paper reports headline incorrect-step localization scores of roughly 48% and 50.9%. +Those numbers were produced on the full curated dataset with different rows, different label composition, its own harness, and its cross-trajectory memory enabled — none of which hold for any row in this document, so they are not comparable to any number here. +We additionally could not verify those figures against any artifact on disk at snapshot time (they do not appear in the pinned CodeTracer repository at `2d302191`); they are recorded here only as the upstream claim to be tested by a future same-rows run. +The only honest CodeTracer comparison we hold is the pinned same-rows run above: 0.1161 official all-row F1 on the mini-SWE cert32 rows with memory disabled, against our 0.1347/0.1502 on identical inputs. + +## Full run ledger + +Every analyst-benchmark artifact holding an embedded `codeTraceCalibration`, including duplicates and broken runs. +`Run id` is `runIdentitySha256` (8); identical configs re-run share it, so `startedAt` disambiguates. +Paths are relative to `~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/` unless prefixed `repo:` (this repository, `benchmarks/trace-analysis/`). + +| Artifact | Run id | Labels | Protocol | Reps | Official | Micro | Failed | Started | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | +| repo:`codetracebench-glm52-20260730/result.json` | `044393f7` | `5d8b4024` | `166e399c` | 2 | 0.1347 | 0.3273 | 1 | 2026-07-30T15:31Z | +| repo:`codetracebench-glm52-20260730/fair-result.json` | `34159faa` | `5d8b4024` | `166e399c` | 2 | 0.1502 | 0.3099 | 2 | 2026-07-30T15:35Z | +| repo:`codetracebench-glm52-20260730/codetracer-result.json` | n/a | `5d8b4024` | upstream `2d302191` | 2 | 0.1161 | 0.2754 | 2 | 2026-07-30 | +| repo:`codetracebench-phasea-blocks-20260731/result.json` | `ddc3e665` | `5d8b4024` | `2aa97505` | 2 | 0.1296 | 0.3007 | 7 | 2026-07-31T06:51Z | +| repo:`codetracebench-rlm-glm52-20260731/result.json` | `e6304c8a` | `5d8b4024` | `bd0347aa` | 2 | 0.1021 | 0.3282 | 3 | 2026-07-31T09:42Z | +| `certification/cert-g-h2` | `24883695` | `2db46579` | `4006588e` | 2 | 0.5427 | 0.6288 | 0 | 2026-08-01T12:53Z | +| `certification/cert-w-h2` | `74ece843` | `2db46579` | `dc8e043a` | 2 | 0.4805 | 0.5224 | 1 | 2026-08-01T12:28Z | +| `certification/cert-inc-h2` | `229d11c0` | `2db46579` | `5811b534` | 2 | 0.5246 | 0.5641 | 0 | 2026-08-01T12:04Z | +| `certification/cert-g-s3` | `417161b6` | `d0347ec7` | `4006588e` | 2 | 0.1844 | 0.1799 | 0 | 2026-08-01T14:21Z | +| `certification/cert-w-s3` | `df4ce98c` | `d0347ec7` | `dc8e043a` | 2 | 0.1791 | 0.1805 | 1 | 2026-08-01T13:51Z | +| `certification/cert-inc-s3` | `dfff2ee1` | `d0347ec7` | `5811b534` | 2 | 0.1830 | 0.1693 | 1 | 2026-08-01T13:20Z | +| `cert2/stock-oh` | `30d80958` | `2cf55793` | `747ac229` | 2 | 0.1381 | 0.2436 | 0 | 2026-08-01T22:51Z | +| `cert2/stock-t2` | `abda3035` | `24e47110` | `747ac229` | 2 | 0.1497 | 0.1896 | 0 | 2026-08-01T23:37Z | +| `cert2/g2-oh` | `0e688fd3` | `2cf55793` | `0629426b` | 2 | 0.1220 | 0.1828 | 1 | 2026-08-01T23:11Z | +| `cert2/g2-t2` | `0f1d655c` | `24e47110` | `0629426b` | 2 | 0.1186 | 0.1633 | 2 | 2026-08-02T00:00Z | +| `salvaged-runs/rlm-smoke9` | `b4b0f57e` | `5d8b4024` | `80f3ca7f` | 1 | 0.1250 | 0.4000 | 0 | smoke, 4 obs | +| `salvaged-runs/rlm-chk` | `a9d72390` | `5d8b4024` | `80f3ca7f` | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0 | smoke, 2 obs | +| `salvaged-runs/rlm-full5` | `1856e5b1` | `5d8b4024` | `bd0347aa` | 2 | 0.0179 | 0.0678 | 46 | broken, 2026-07-31T09:12Z | +| `salvaged-runs/rlm-full6` | `1be7492a` | `5d8b4024` | `bd0347aa` | 2 | 0.0179 | 0.0593 | 34 | broken, 2026-07-31T09:23Z | +| `salvaged-runs/rlm-full7` | `e6304c8a` | `5d8b4024` | `bd0347aa` | 2 | 0.1021 | 0.3282 | 3 | duplicate of repo rlm run (same `startedAt`) | +| `salvaged-runs/ctb-smoke` | `5f60033c` | `5d8b4024` | `1e31880c` | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 1 | smoke, 2 obs | +| `salvaged-runs/ctb-phasea3` | `ddc3e665` | `5d8b4024` | `2aa97505` | 2 | 0.1296 | 0.3007 | 7 | duplicate of repo phasea run (same `startedAt`) | +| `family-framing-smoke/stock-openhands` | `a5446d3f` | `1b687899` | `747ac229` | 2 | 0.4611 | 0.3023 | 0 | 2026-08-03T05:08Z | +| `family-framing-smoke/framing-openhands` | `c83c5424` | `1b687899` | `0bd09994` | 2 | 0.2149 | 0.2151 | 1 | 2026-08-03T05:39Z | +| `split3-restored/smoke-run` | `e8ee878d` | `bf573bec` | `6a9d8784` | 2 | 0.1958 | 0.2000 | 0 | smoke, 8 obs | +| `gepa-run/cli-proof` | `8d4f6631` | `5d8b4024` | `cb2a5beb` | 1 | 0.5000 | 0.5000 | 0 | smoke, 1 obs | +| `salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-full-dev` | `526dc2ff` | `5d8b4024` | `dc8e043a` | 3 | 0.1486 | 0.3660 | 8 | parallel chain, 2026-08-01T09:04Z | +| `salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-full-h1` | `3664d62f` | `53af5ffe` | `bd0347aa` | 3 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 66 | parallel wipeout, 2026-08-01T09:04Z | +| `salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-serial-dev` | `526dc2ff` | `5d8b4024` | `dc8e043a` | 3 | 0.1526 | 0.3231 | 2 | 2026-08-01T10:42Z | +| `salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-serial-h1` | `5cdb66a4` | `53af5ffe` | `dc8e043a` | 3 | 0.1737 | 0.3542 | 2 | 2026-08-01T10:05Z | +| `salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-h1-probe` | `b6a4eebc` | `53af5ffe` | `dc8e043a` | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0 | smoke, 1 obs | +| `salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-smoke-narrow` | `ec347ceb` | `5d8b4024` | `bd0347aa` | 1 | 0.6667 | 0.6667 | 0 | smoke, 1 obs | +| `salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-smoke-wide` | `b6a4eebc` | `53af5ffe` | `dc8e043a` | 1 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0 | smoke, 1 obs | +| `salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-smoke-wide-rep` | `550c5da5` | `53af5ffe` | `dc8e043a` | 2 | 0.7636 | 0.7619 | 0 | smoke, 2 obs | + +## Full digests + +Labels files (sha256 → local path at snapshot time): + +``` +5d8b4024c3e2114965cbf2f2fa0124bbf59b3fb134824fa06dd6a38ee07e8412 repo benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-glm52-20260730/input-labels.json +53af5ffe3962f3378f2d65419b92b8a56fe7d6c8efc619a0bc2b8f0872bc4f83 ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/ctb-holdout-labels.json +2db46579b7993edc376acbbcacf67a1d0ddfcdb94e28930c2bb8dfcf1dc32fb2 ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/ctb-holdout2-labels.json +d0347ec7a5ec9a07bd3fcd16aa06b07bcb33ffabca39cb0b0f7a564fb500ae08 ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/split3/ctb-split3-labels.json +bf573beca3bd58c2f2937671dfaa54095f6438523d07caa22608e1e87b114c1d ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/split3-restored/thin-blind-labels.json +2cf557938f0c1d8d239ede37de91e0f5cb58a9f2854e2e74ab1baa764cf91fde ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/ctb-openhands-cert32-labels.json +24e471101c652aa0a7d9edc6dc9081d1a67589b1481f21c71552d47106cae3e6 ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/ctb-terminus2-cert32-labels.json +2bd62a9d5ec785482611e1b02a1a829cf98c0777b6ae1ac9b1867b8fc9e4b8c6 ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/ctb-openhands-dev-labels.json +8388ffde9c1b3b3f8f04afb4356a3b10abefda6db9ecd0216f65003bf6251958 ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/ctb-terminus2-dev-labels.json +399cfed3b9b53dc47e61735ad0dde94acfeb3fcd63cd9879fe96e90df093d6d1 ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/sweagent/ctb-sweagent-labels.json +``` + +Only the first labels file is published in this repository today; publishing the remaining label manifests is gap item 2 below. +Every run artifact additionally embeds per-trajectory `sha256` digests for its exact input archives (`inputs.traceFiles[]`), so any row can be byte-verified against re-prepared inputs. + +## Reproduce + +Extraction and calibration scripts live in [`leaderboard/`](./leaderboard/); paths inside them reference the operator bench cache described above. + +```bash +# 1. Extract every embedded official-metric number (writes JSON to stdout) +python3 benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/extract-official.py + +# 2. Prove extraction reads the exact field the scorer wrote (bit-match, exit 0 on success) +python3 benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/extract-official.py --bitmatch \ + ~/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/certification/cert-g-h2/result.json + +# 3. Constant-rule calibration table from raw labels +python3 benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/calibrate-splits.py +``` + +Bit-match note: the recomputation reproduces the embedded doubles exactly (`cert-g-h2` → `0.5427281892181798`, `stock-oh` → `0.13809445762570763`, 20260730 baseline → `0.13470062923187923`). +One trap is documented in the script: Python ≥3.12 `sum()` is Neumaier-compensated and differs from the TypeScript `reduce` fold by 1 ulp on 64-row sums, so the bit-match uses an explicit left fold. +The extractor itself only ever *reads* embedded values; the bit-match exists to prove it reads the same field the scorer wrote. +The extraction snapshot used for this document is committed as [`leaderboard/official-extract-20260803.json`](./leaderboard/official-extract-20260803.json). + +## Appendix: what a submission-ready public claim still needs + +Ranked by effort, smallest first. + +1. **File the upstream CodeTraceBench issue for the degenerate wave** (hours). + Report the split3 finding: 37-row all-positive remainder with 58 gold steps where three materially different analysts land within 0.54pp of the official metric and within 7.5pp of a flag-last-step constant rule, plus the last-step label artifact measured on the SWE-agent rows (0.1895 / 38 of 106 rows), plus the input-blindness normalizer defect that thin-blind-28 restores. + The constant-rule calibration script in this directory is the reproducible evidence. +2. **Publish the label manifests** (hours). + Nine of ten label files above exist only in the operator bench cache; a public claim needs them (or their derivation scripts plus digests) in-repo. +3. **Official-metric run of the shipping config on a clean split with ≥3 reps** (one mutex session, ~$40 at the measured ~$0.125/observation — 64-observation runs above cost $7.3–8.2 — for 106 rows × 3 reps). + Every existing shipping-config number sits on a SPENT or burned split; the SWE-agent 106 (imported, sealed, spot-proofed 3/3) is the only clean candidate, and its table must carry the constant-rule row (0.1895) beside the model row. + 2-rep confidence intervals of ±0.15–0.28 (evolve ledger) cannot certify small deltas; 3+ reps minimum. +4. **Same-rows CodeTracer head-to-head on that clean split** (one mutex session, ~$25–35 extrapolating $7.27/64 obs to 106 rows). + Pinned revision, memory disabled, byte-identical inputs via its own normalizer — the same protocol as the 20260730 trio. +5. **Full official verified-1000 run** (days, ~$125 per repetition for our analyst at the measured ~$0.125/observation — ~$375 at 3 reps — plus a materially larger CodeTracer bill). + Only after items 1–4: the verified-1000 split mixes agent families whose labels carry the artifacts documented above, so publishing without the instrument ledger would reproduce the same interpretability failure this leaderboard exists to prevent. diff --git a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/calibrate-splits.py b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/calibrate-splits.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..4a0d30a1 --- /dev/null +++ b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/calibrate-splits.py @@ -0,0 +1,55 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Constant-rule calibration per split, under the official CodeTraceBench per-row F1. + +Semantics match agent-eval src/analyst/benchmark-public-calibration.ts:officialCodeTraceF1 +and the scorer snippet in CodeTracer README.md: per-row F1 over incorrect step ids, +0 whenever either predicted or expected set is empty; mean over every row. +""" +import hashlib +import json +import statistics + +SPLITS = [ + ('mini-SWE cert32 (dev32)', '/home/drew/code/agent-eval/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-glm52-20260730/input-labels.json'), + ('mini-SWE holdout-1', '/home/drew/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/ctb-holdout-labels.json'), + ('mini-SWE holdout-2', '/home/drew/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/ctb-holdout2-labels.json'), + ('mini-SWE split3 remainder-37', '/home/drew/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/split3/ctb-split3-labels.json'), + ('mini-SWE thin-blind-28 (restored)', '/home/drew/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/split3-restored/thin-blind-labels.json'), + ('OpenHands cert32', '/home/drew/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/ctb-openhands-cert32-labels.json'), + ('Terminus2 cert32', '/home/drew/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/ctb-terminus2-cert32-labels.json'), + ('OpenHands dev pool', '/home/drew/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/ctb-openhands-dev-labels.json'), + ('Terminus2 dev pool', '/home/drew/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/oht2/ctb-terminus2-dev-labels.json'), + ('SWE-agent 106', '/home/drew/bench-cache/ctb-20260801/sweagent/ctb-sweagent-labels.json'), +] + + +def expected_steps(row): + steps = set() + for stage in row.get('incorrect_stages') or []: + for step in stage.get('incorrect_step_ids') or []: + steps.add(int(step)) + return steps + + +def row_f1(pred, expected): + matched = len(pred & expected) + precision = 0 if not pred else matched / len(pred) + recall = 0 if not expected else matched / len(expected) + return 0 if precision + recall == 0 else 2 * precision * recall / (precision + recall) + + +print('| Split | labels sha256 (8) | n | positives | label-empty | gold steps | empty rule | flag-last-step | last-step hit rows | flag-all-steps |') +print('| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |') +for name, path in SPLITS: + raw = open(path, 'rb').read() + sha = hashlib.sha256(raw).hexdigest()[:8] + data = json.loads(raw) + rows = data if isinstance(data, list) else data['rows'] + exp = [(expected_steps(r), int(r['step_count'])) for r in rows] + positives = sum(1 for e, _ in exp if e) + gold = sum(len(e) for e, _ in exp) + last = [row_f1({sc}, e) for e, sc in exp] + allsteps = [row_f1(set(range(1, sc + 1)), e) for e, sc in exp] + print(f'| {name} | `{sha}` | {len(rows)} | {positives} | {len(rows) - positives} | {gold} ' + f'| 0.000 | {statistics.mean(last):.4f} | {sum(1 for v in last if v > 0)}/{len(rows)} ' + f'| {statistics.mean(allsteps):.4f} |') diff --git a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/extract-official.py b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/extract-official.py new file mode 100644 index 00000000..11b16cb2 --- /dev/null +++ b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/extract-official.py @@ -0,0 +1,152 @@ +#!/usr/bin/env python3 +"""Extract embedded codeTraceCalibration official-metric numbers from every analyst-benchmark artifact. + +Never recomputes silently: the embedded officialAllRowF1 is the cited value. +A separate --bitmatch mode recomputes one artifact's value from raw observations +with the exact semantics of benchmark-public-calibration.ts:officialCodeTraceF1 +and asserts bit equality, proving the extraction reads the same field the scorer wrote. +""" +import json +import re +import sys +import urllib.parse +from pathlib import Path + +TRACE_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] +BENCH_CACHE = Path.home() / 'bench-cache/ctb-20260801' + +ARTIFACTS = [ + # in-repo published runs + str(TRACE_DIR / 'codetracebench-glm52-20260730/result.json'), + str(TRACE_DIR / 'codetracebench-glm52-20260730/fair-result.json'), + str(TRACE_DIR / 'codetracebench-glm52-20260730/codetracer-result.json'), + str(TRACE_DIR / 'codetracebench-phasea-blocks-20260731/result.json'), + str(TRACE_DIR / 'codetracebench-rlm-glm52-20260731/result.json'), + # certification (shipped-config runs) + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'certification/cert-g-h2/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'certification/cert-w-h2/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'certification/cert-inc-h2/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'certification/cert-g-s3/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'certification/cert-w-s3/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'certification/cert-inc-s3/result.json'), + # cert2 (OH/T2 stock + g2) + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'cert2/stock-oh/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'cert2/stock-t2/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'cert2/g2-oh/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'cert2/g2-t2/result.json'), + # salvaged + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/rlm-smoke9/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/rlm-chk/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/rlm-full5/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/rlm-full6/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/rlm-full7/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/ctb-smoke/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/ctb-phasea3/result.json'), + # smokes / probes + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'family-framing-smoke/stock-openhands/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'family-framing-smoke/framing-openhands/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'split3-restored/smoke-run/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'gepa-run/cli-proof/result.json'), + # selection-experiment runs salvaged from /dev/shm 2026-08-03 + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-full-dev/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-full-h1/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-serial-dev/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-serial-h1/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-h1-probe/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-smoke-narrow/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-smoke-wide/result.json'), + str(BENCH_CACHE / 'salvaged-runs/devshm-20260803/mp-tw-smoke-wide-rep/result.json'), +] + +STEP_URI = re.compile(r'^trace://([^/]+)/span/step-(\d+)$') + + +def official_f1(observation): + expected = set() + score = observation['score'] + for issue_id in list(score['matchedIssueIds']) + list(score['missedIssueIds']): + m = re.fullmatch(r'incorrect:(\d+)', issue_id) + if not m: + raise TypeError(f"{observation['caseId']}: invalid label {issue_id}") + expected.add(int(m.group(1))) + trajectory_id = (observation.get('caseMetadata') or {}).get('trajectoryId') + predicted = set() + if not observation.get('error'): + for finding in observation['findings']: + if finding['area'] != 'incorrect': + continue + for evidence in finding['evidence_refs']: + m = STEP_URI.match(evidence['uri']) + if not m or urllib.parse.unquote(m.group(1)) != trajectory_id: + raise TypeError(f"{observation['caseId']}: bad evidence {evidence['uri']}") + predicted.add(int(m.group(2))) + matched = len(predicted & expected) + precision = 0 if not predicted else matched / len(predicted) + recall = 0 if not expected else matched / len(expected) + return 0 if precision + recall == 0 else (2 * precision * recall) / (precision + recall) + + +def bitmatch(path): + d = json.loads(Path(path).read_text()) + ok = True + for runner in d['codeTraceCalibration']['runners']: + rid = runner['runnerId'] + obs = [o for o in d['result']['observations'] if o['runnerId'] == rid] + rows = [official_f1(o) for o in obs] + # explicit left fold: TS uses reduce((a,b)=>a+b,0); Python>=3.12 sum() is + # Neumaier-compensated and differs by 1 ulp on 64-row sums + total = 0.0 + for value in rows: + total += value + recomputed = total / len(rows) if rows else None + embedded = runner['officialAllRowF1'] + match = recomputed == embedded + ok = ok and match + print(f'{path} runner={rid} embedded={embedded!r} recomputed={recomputed!r} ' + f'rows={len(rows)} BITMATCH={match}') + return ok + + +def extract(): + out = [] + for path in ARTIFACTS: + p = Path(path) + if not p.exists(): + out.append({'path': path, 'missing': True}) + continue + d = json.loads(p.read_text()) + cal = d.get('codeTraceCalibration') + inputs = d.get('inputs', {}) + prov = d.get('result', {}).get('provenance', {}) + meta = prov.get('metadata', {}) + row = { + 'path': path, + 'runIdentitySha256': d.get('runIdentitySha256'), + 'datasetSplit': inputs.get('datasetSplit'), + 'datasetRevision': inputs.get('datasetRevision'), + 'labelsSha256': inputs.get('labelsSha256'), + 'sourceRowCount': inputs.get('sourceRowCount'), + 'model': meta.get('model'), + 'rlmSamples': meta.get('rlmSamples'), + 'outputAdapter': meta.get('outputAdapter'), + 'protocolSha256': meta.get('protocolSha256'), + 'implementationSha256': meta.get('implementationSha256'), + 'promptVariant': meta.get('promptVariant') or meta.get('instructionsVariant'), + 'metadataExtra': {k: v for k, v in meta.items() + if k not in ('model', 'rlmSamples', 'outputAdapter', 'protocolSha256', + 'implementationSha256') + and isinstance(v, (str, int, float, bool))}, + 'repetitions': prov.get('repetitions'), + 'caseCount': prov.get('caseCount'), + 'startedAt': prov.get('startedAt'), + 'endedAt': prov.get('endedAt'), + 'runners': cal['runners'] if cal else None, + } + out.append(row) + print(json.dumps(out, indent=1)) + + +if __name__ == '__main__': + if len(sys.argv) > 1 and sys.argv[1] == '--bitmatch': + sys.exit(0 if bitmatch(sys.argv[2]) else 1) + extract() diff --git a/benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/official-extract-20260803.json b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/official-extract-20260803.json new file mode 100644 index 00000000..ca2dbab0 --- /dev/null +++ b/benchmarks/trace-analysis/leaderboard/official-extract-20260803.json @@ -0,0 +1,2459 @@ +[ + { + "path": "/home/drew/code/agent-eval/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-glm52-20260730/result.json", + "runIdentitySha256": "044393f7d937c621b568fd4d4ec92a9c9d0a4040d55db9b3faf72647e0270cdb", + "datasetSplit": "verified-miniswe-normalizer-compatible-32", + "datasetRevision": "aa213b84ffb6690fc37ca15766d6ca174ec36d4d", + "labelsSha256": "5d8b4024c3e2114965cbf2f2fa0124bbf59b3fb134824fa06dd6a38ee07e8412", + "sourceRowCount": 32, + "model": "glm-5.2", + "rlmSamples": null, + "outputAdapter": "codetracebench-incorrect-step", + "protocolSha256": "166e399c9a93c9806b007273bf0b54078709389c52c6a33e3cbce0f554dab302", + "implementationSha256": "4dba263b6256a30d56c7fdb2d992d3a953c0035d731f359b704db806f68f75ac", + "promptVariant": null, + "metadataExtra": { + "caseSelection": "census", + "caseSelectionSeed": 0, + "selectionStratified": false, + "dependencyLockSha256": "1e03f2daed356d60316aabefb407ec1e437ac94d408d61eea4ae096e9c6fbb5b", + "populationRepresentativenessProven": false + }, + "repetitions": 2, + "caseCount": 32, + "startedAt": "2026-07-30T15:31:48.463Z", + "endedAt": "2026-07-30T15:34:30.624Z", + "runners": [ + { + "runnerId": "empty", + "selectedRuns": 48, + "positiveRuns": 32, + "trustedNegativeRuns": 16, + "unlabeledRuns": 16, + "failedLabelEmptyRuns": 16, + "unknownLabelEmptyRuns": 0, + "completedRuns": 48, + "failedRuns": 0, + "expectedIncorrectSteps": 110, + "predictedIncorrectSteps": 0, + "matchedIncorrectSteps": 0, + "officialAllRowF1": 0, + "officialAllRowRuns": 64, + "precision": 0, + "recall": 0, + "f1": 0, + "trustedNegativeFalsePositiveRate": 0, + "trustedNegativeFailureRate": 0, + "unlabeledPredictionRate": 0, + "unlabeledFailureRate": 0 + }, + { + "runnerId": "model", + "selectedRuns": 48, + "positiveRuns": 32, + "trustedNegativeRuns": 16, + "unlabeledRuns": 16, + "failedLabelEmptyRuns": 16, + "unknownLabelEmptyRuns": 0, + "completedRuns": 47, + "failedRuns": 1, + "expectedIncorrectSteps": 110, + "predictedIncorrectSteps": 165, + "matchedIncorrectSteps": 45, + "officialAllRowF1": 0.13470062923187923, + "officialAllRowRuns": 64, + "precision": 0.2727272727272727, + "recall": 0.4090909090909091, + "f1": 0.32727272727272727, + "trustedNegativeFalsePositiveRate": 0.9333333333333333, + "trustedNegativeFailureRate": 0.0625, + "unlabeledPredictionRate": 1, + "unlabeledFailureRate": 0 + } + ] + }, + { + "path": "/home/drew/code/agent-eval/benchmarks/trace-analysis/codetracebench-glm52-20260730/fair-result.json", + "runIdentitySha256": "34159faaf98bcbe9ceb5ffa061004555276619b6f74938010eebd523fa9953d8", + "datasetSplit": "verified-miniswe-normalizer-compatible-32", + "datasetRevision": "aa213b84ffb6690fc37ca15766d6ca174ec36d4d", + "labelsSha256": 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