HPAI Workflow Step 04: Observation DAG Construction

[sbfnk]

Objective

Develop observation DAG linking process model to observed data.

Observation processes

• Passive surveillance (96/103 cases): mortality → suspicion → sampling → confirmation
• Pre-shipment testing (6/103 cases): scheduled testing in HRZ
• Contact tracing (1/103 cases): backward/forward tracing

Key quantities

• Detection delay distribution (T^C - T^I)
• Species-specific detection (ducks harder to detect)
• Ascertainment probability

Deliverable

notes/step04_observation_dag.md