diff --git a/app/Console/Commands/CertificateStats.php b/app/Console/Commands/CertificateStats.php
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..aab90bd0f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/Console/Commands/CertificateStats.php
@@ -0,0 +1,143 @@
+<?php
+
+namespace App\Console\Commands;
+
+use App\Event;
+use App\Excellence;
+use App\Helpers\ExcellenceWinnersHelper;
+use App\Queries\SuperOrganiserQuery;
+use Illuminate\Console\Command;
+
+class CertificateStats extends Command
+{
+    protected $signature = 'certificate:stats
+                            {--edition=2025 : Target edition year}
+                            {--type=excellence : excellence|super-organiser}
+                            {--sample=10 : Number of sample user IDs to show for missing/extra}';
+
+    protected $description = 'Show diagnostic counts for certificate backend recipients and processing status';
+
+    public function handle(): int
+    {
+        $edition = (int) $this->option('edition');
+        $typeOption = (string) $this->option('type');
+        $sampleSize = max(0, (int) $this->option('sample'));
+
+        $normalizedType = $this->normalizeType($typeOption);
+        if ($normalizedType === null) {
+            $this->error("Invalid --type value: {$typeOption}. Use 'excellence' or 'super-organiser'.");
+            return self::FAILURE;
+        }
+
+        $eligibleUserIds = $this->eligibleUserIds($edition, $normalizedType);
+        $eligibleUserIds = array_values(array_unique(array_filter(array_map('intval', $eligibleUserIds))));
+
+        $query = Excellence::query()
+            ->where('edition', $edition)
+            ->where('type', $normalizedType);
+
+        $excellenceRows = $query->count();
+        $generated = (clone $query)->whereNotNull('certificate_url')->count();
+        $sent = (clone $query)->whereNotNull('notified_at')->count();
+        $generationErrors = (clone $query)->whereNotNull('certificate_generation_error')->count();
+        $sendErrors = (clone $query)->whereNotNull('certificate_sent_error')->count();
+        $pendingGeneration = (clone $query)
+            ->where(function ($q) {
+                $q->whereNull('certificate_url')->orWhereNotNull('certificate_generation_error');
+            })
+            ->count();
+        $pendingSend = (clone $query)
+            ->whereNotNull('certificate_url')
+            ->where(function ($q) {
+                $q->whereNull('notified_at')->orWhereNotNull('certificate_sent_error');
+            })
+            ->count();
+
+        $existingUserIds = Excellence::query()
+            ->where('edition', $edition)
+            ->where('type', $normalizedType)
+            ->whereNotNull('user_id')
+            ->distinct()
+            ->pluck('user_id')
+            ->map(static fn ($id) => (int) $id)
+            ->toArray();
+
+        $eligibleSet = array_fill_keys($eligibleUserIds, true);
+        $existingSet = array_fill_keys($existingUserIds, true);
+
+        $missingUserIds = array_map('intval', array_keys(array_diff_key($eligibleSet, $existingSet)));
+        $extraUserIds = array_map('intval', array_keys(array_diff_key($existingSet, $eligibleSet)));
+
+        $this->newLine();
+        $this->info("Certificate stats for edition {$edition}, type {$normalizedType}");
+        $this->table(
+            ['Metric', 'Value'],
+            [
+                ['Eligible users (source query)', number_format(count($eligibleUserIds))],
+                ['Excellence rows (edition + type)', number_format($excellenceRows)],
+                ['Distinct user_ids in excellences', number_format(count($existingUserIds))],
+                ['Generated (certificate_url set)', number_format($generated)],
+                ['Sent (notified_at set)', number_format($sent)],
+                ['Generation errors', number_format($generationErrors)],
+                ['Send errors', number_format($sendErrors)],
+                ['Pending generation', number_format($pendingGeneration)],
+                ['Pending send', number_format($pendingSend)],
+                ['Missing rows (eligible but no excellence row)', number_format(count($missingUserIds))],
+                ['Extra rows (in excellences but not eligible)', number_format(count($extraUserIds))],
+            ]
+        );
+
+        if ($sampleSize > 0) {
+            $this->line('Sample missing user IDs: ' . $this->sampleCsv($missingUserIds, $sampleSize));
+            $this->line('Sample extra user IDs: ' . $this->sampleCsv($extraUserIds, $sampleSize));
+        }
+
+        return self::SUCCESS;
+    }
+
+    private function normalizeType(string $typeOption): ?string
+    {
+        $slug = strtolower(trim($typeOption));
+        return match ($slug) {
+            'excellence' => 'Excellence',
+            'super-organiser', 'superorganiser' => 'SuperOrganiser',
+            default => null,
+        };
+    }
+
+    private function eligibleUserIds(int $edition, string $type): array
+    {
+        if ($type === 'SuperOrganiser') {
+            return array_map('intval', SuperOrganiserQuery::winners($edition));
+        }
+
+        $codes = ExcellenceWinnersHelper::query(now()->year($edition), true)
+            ->pluck('codeweek_for_all_participation_code')
+            ->filter()
+            ->unique()
+            ->values();
+
+        if ($codes->isEmpty()) {
+            return [];
+        }
+
+        return Event::query()
+            ->whereYear('end_date', '=', $edition)
+            ->where('status', 'APPROVED')
+            ->whereIn('codeweek_for_all_participation_code', $codes->toArray())
+            ->whereNotNull('creator_id')
+            ->distinct()
+            ->pluck('creator_id')
+            ->map(static fn ($id) => (int) $id)
+            ->toArray();
+    }
+
+    private function sampleCsv(array $ids, int $sampleSize): string
+    {
+        if (empty($ids)) {
+            return '(none)';
+        }
+
+        return implode(', ', array_slice(array_map('strval', $ids), 0, $sampleSize));
+    }
+}