uncommonsenseseminar.html

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<div id="uncommonsense">
    <div class="details-container">
        <div class="details-item">
            <h1 class="noslashes" >Uncommon Sense Seminar (not offered summer of 2022)</h1>
            <div class="info-banner">
                Play with cutting-edge artificial intelligence and try to figure out its impact on the world.
            </div>
            <div class="info-banner">
                Challenge your ideas.
            </div>
            <div class="info-banner">
                Compete in the <strong>The Economist's World in 2021</strong> forecasting challenge.
            </div>
            
            <div class="subtitle">
                <!-- in-line color text-->
                <p >        Uncommon Sense is a free critical thinking summer program for rising highschool freshmen to rising college freshmen hosted in California.</strong></p>
                <p >        Nominations are due on May 30th at 11:59 PM Pacific Time. </p>
                <p><strong>The application deadline has been extended to June 4th at 11:59 PM Pacific Time</strong>.</p>
            </div>
            <br>

            Uncommon Sense has been wound down and will not run again.
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                        id="us-nominate"><button class="action-button largebutton" >Nominate a Student</button></a>
            </section>
            

            <h3 class="noslashes">What is Uncommon Sense?</h3>
            <p>Uncommon Sense is an <strong>all-expenses-paid</strong>, critical thinking program held in
                Pescadero, California
                in partnership with
                <a href="https://web.stanford.edu/group/ea/">
                    Stanford Effective Altruism</a>.
                Twenty students aged 14-18 will be selected from across the country to be
                flown in to participate in this program from July 31st to August 6th at <a href="https://www.ventureretreat.org/accommodations">Venture Retreat Center</a>. Students will not pay for food,
                housing, or transportation to participate. This program is sponsored by a philanthropic
                grant to increase the number of students that do extraordinary work in their future careers.
            </p>
            <p>
                Students will listen to and converse with speakers from <strong>Stanford, OpenAI, and Carnegie Mellon
                    University</strong>.
                Participants will get to explore concepts at the heart of disciplines such as machine learning, game
                theory, and statistics,
                and will begin to see the profound ways that these concepts connect to the world.
                <!--and to each other-->

                Evolution regulates living organisms and the spread of ideas; 
                Bayes theorem can be used to predict whether or not you have COVID, but it might also explain the cause of depression; 
                activation energy can tell you when a chemical reaction will occur and when a social movement will start.
                And all of these tie into the decisions we make every single day.
            </p>
            <h3 class="noslashes">Our Philosophy</h3>
            <p> Everyone, from students to world leaders, makes countless decisions each
                day such as:
            <ul>
                <li>
                    Should you be taking vitamin D to prevent COVID
                    (<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsbmb.2020.105751">one study shows it significantly reduced
                        COVID-19 hospitalizations</a> but
                    <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77093-z">another study shows it doesn’t
                        help patients who are already hospitalized</a>)?
                </li>
                <li>
                    What career will make you happiest and have the best impact on the world (a
                    <a href="https://80000hours.org/2012/08/how-many-lives-does-a-doctor-save/">doctor typically
                        only saves</a>
                    far fewer lives than
                    <a
                        href="https://80000hours.org/2017/05/how-much-do-hedge-fund-traders-earn/#how-do-hedge-funds-make-money-and-how-is-it-shared-among-the-employees">a
                        quantitative trader</a>
                    <a
                        href="https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models">donating</a>
                    1% of their income)?
                </li>
                <li>
                    How should the US tackle climate change (<a
                        href="https://www.vox.com/2014/10/4/6901299/plastic-bags-environment">a
                        plastic bag ban may actually increase emissions</a>,
                    though it would decrease litter)?
                </li>
            </ul>
            </p>
            <p>
                <strong>Too often, these decisions are automatic, or influenced by our cognitive biases, or
                    dictated by social norms.
                </strong>
                Even people’s most strongly held opinions are often just a product of their environment, not
                something they’ve actually thought through and come to their own conclusion on ⁠— you can
                predict someone’s political party with,
                <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/14515/teens-stay-true-parents-political-perspectives.aspx">
                    70% accuracy</a>
                based on how their parents voted. We want to fix that. Our goal is to <strong>help people determine how
                    they think the world works and what they can do to shape it</strong>.
            </p>
              <p>
                In order to increase the number of students that do highly meaningful and remarkable work, we seek to help our students
                develop rigorous and independent worldviews that they can use to effect positive change on a large scale in their careers.
              </p>  
              <!--
                <p>We make countless decisions everyday. <!--However, these decisions may be less independent than we may think.--
                  Too often, however, these decisions are either made automatically without conscious deliberation,
                  or are dictated by cognitive biases and social norms. 
                  Even the opinions that we hold strongest seem to in large part come from those around us, rather than
                  from independent conclusions derived from careful thought. For example, one can
                  predict another’s political affiliation with
                  <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/14515/teens-stay-true-parents-political-perspectives.aspx">
                      70% accuracy</a> just based on how their parents voted. 
                      Without deliberation, our beliefs may be less independent than we normally may be inclined assume. -->
                <!-- <p>
                
                that gives inquisitive high schoolers the opportunity to master decision-making techniques based
                in philosophy, economics, game theory, cognitive science, and statistics. Our teaching team of
                Stanford students provides students with valuable critical thinking skills in a unique
                discussion-based format.
            </p> -->
                <!-- <p>
                Students will use the skills they learn in Uncommon Sense to compete in global forecasting
                competitions like
                <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/50-the-economist-the-world-in-2021">
                    The Economist's World in 2021 forecasting challenge
                </a> for the chance to win the
                title of Superforecaster. In these contests, students will practice answers to questions such as
                “How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA
                as of 31 March 2021?” and “What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter
                of 2021?”
            </p> -->
            <p>
                This summer, participants will learn how to build models of complex systems,
                <a
                    href="https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/50-the-economist-the-world-in-2021">compete
                to forecast
                answers to important geopolitical questions</a>, create
                Bayesian priors to make predictions, examine and mitigate their cognitive biases, and develop better
                understandings of the world.
                Our program is project-based, incorporating interactive activities such as a cold war nuclear
                simulation, an
                iterated prisoner’s dilemma tournament, creating markets using fake currency, and much more.
            </p>

            <p>
                Graduates of Uncommon Sense will gain the skills they need to come to their own conclusions about
                critical problems, and be able to make more informed choices to achieve their goals and shape the
                world around them.
            </p>

            <h3 class="noslashes">The Application</h3>

            <p>To apply for Uncommon Sense, students must first request a teacher nomination. Please ask the teacher you
                know best to <a
                    href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeh8SZo0AByYkF63PjRuR0OgqChISqPOJfb86zTSj4IBWRPXw/viewform">nominate
                    you</a>. However, if you are homeschooled, or have other extenuating circumstances, please
                <a href="mailto:{{site.contact.email}}">contact us</a>. Teachers may not nominate more than ten
                students. <strong>Nominations are due at May 30th 11:59 PM Pacific Time. </strong>
            </p>
            <p>Once nominated, students must <strong>apply by our extended deadline, June 4th at 11:59 PM Pacific Time</strong>.
                We will request interviews from promising applicants over the following week.
                We aim to release decisions before June 30th.
            </p>
            <!--
            <p>
                Nomination & Application Deadline: May 30th. <br>
                Interviews: June 1 - June 7. <br>
                Final Decisions: June 30th.
            </p>-->
            <!-- In-line red background color-->
            

        </div>
    </div>

    <div class="section">
        <section class="faqs" id="faqs">
            <h3 class="noslashes">FAQs</h3>
            <h4 class="noslashes">About the program</h4>
            <details>
                <summary>What specifically do you teach?</summary>
                <p>
                    <!--Great question! -->The strategies we teach fall into two broad categories:
                <ol>
                    <li>
                        <strong>Instrumental Rationality: the skills you need to achieve your goals.</strong>
                        What do you value for
                        its own sake? What are the goals you want to achieve above all else, the goals your other
                        actions are stepping-stones towards? These terminal goals could be happiness, improving the
                        world, becoming famous, or anything. Now ask yourself what you did this past hour. Was it the
                        best possible action you could have taken to achieve your goals?
                        We help you achieve your
                        goals by giving you tools that help you become accustomed to making plans and habits that
                        actually work, and inch you in the direction you want to go.
                    </li>
                    <li>
                        <strong>Epistemic rationality: the use of evidence and reason to form accurate beliefs about the
                            world.</strong>
                        Specific skills we will teach include Bayesian reasoning, statistics, epistemology, cognitive
                        biases, forecasting, and the study of complex systems.
                        We teach epistemic rationality by
                        offering interesting and complex ideas for students to discuss, debate, and form beliefs about.
                        We also equip participants with useful ideas that help to think clearly about uncertainty and
                        complex
                        systems.
                    </li>
                </ol>
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>Who should sign up/is this stuff I already know?</summary>
                <p>
                    If you are not already familiar with and interested in most of the following concepts, Uncommon
                    Sense might be for you:
                <ul>
                    <li>Bayesian reasoning</li>
                    <li>Applied game theory</li>
                    <li>Collaborative truth-seeking</li>
                    <li>Moral philosophy</li>
                    <li>Epistemology</li>
                </ul>
                </p>
                <p>
                    Here are a few fun little puzzles that should give you a taste of the flavor of questions we
                    focus on:
                <ul>
                    <li>You are on a jury trying to decide whether or not to condemn someone for kidnapping and
                        ransoming an innocent man. Police are certain the perpetrator was one of 30 people staying
                        in a certain motel who match the basic demographics of the kidnapper and have weak alibis.
                        The businessperson then picked the accused out of a lineup. You know a perpetrator gets
                        correctly identified in a lineup about 60% of the time, and any given innocent person gets
                        identified about 10% of the time. Based on this evidence, what are the odds that the
                        accused is guilty? (<a href="https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule/?l=1zq">hint</a>)
                    </li>
                    <li>
                        You are an economics professor who forgot to go to the ATM before leaving for work, and who
                        has only $20 in your pocket. You have a lunch meeting at a very expensive French restaurant,
                        but you're stuck teaching classes until lunchtime and have no way to get money. Can you trick
                        your students into giving you enough money for lunch in exchange for your $20, without lying
                        to them in any way?
                        (<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A2Qam9Bd9xpbb2wLQ/game-theory-as-a-dark-art">source
                            and answer</a>)
                    </li>
                    <li>
                        According to the
                        <a
                            href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_voting#:~:text=The%20paradox%20of%20voting%2C%20also,normally%20exceed%20the%20expected%20benefits.&text=Moreover%2C%20the%20expected%20benefits%20are,will%20never%20be%20certainly%20pivotal.">
                            paradox of voting
                        </a>
                        , voting is never a rational choice for a self-interested individual to make because your
                        vote has a minuscule chance of influencing the election but there is a significant cost to
                        yourself to go out and vote. Yet, it’s possible that even a selfish person should go out
                        and vote. Why might this be?
                        (<a
                            href="https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/timeless-decision-theory#:~:text=Timeless%20decision%20theory%20(TDT)%20is,abstract%20computation%20that%20they%20implement.">hint</a>)
                    </li>
                </ul>
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>Is transportation included?</summary>
                <p>
                    Yes. Students will not pay for their flights and additional transportation. 
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>Who are the instructors?</summary>
                <p>
                    We are a team of Stanford, MIT, and Carnegie Mellon students with experience in computer science,
                    economics, machine
                    learning, and public policy. We have combined our knowledge and experiences with select
                    ideas from cognitive science, economics, psychology, philosophy, computer science, and forecasting,
                    game theory, statistics, and many other fields. While these various disciplines may all seem
                    disparate,
                    they all provide useful tools that help instill what it means to think critically.
                    At Stanford, we regularly run programs to teach these concepts to peers; through this we have
                    developed our curriculum
                    with the guidance of those who have run workshops, summer camps, and seminars aimed at teaching
                    critical
                    thinking techniques to professionals, students at top universities, and high school students.
                </p>
                <p>
                    But at the end of the day, we don’t claim to be more rational or correct than anyone else. But we do
                    think
                    we have some ideas that others might find useful. We have adapted ideas
                    from organizations like <a href="https://www.rationality.org/">The Center for Applied
                        Rationality</a> (no affiliation), for example.
                    We regularly try new teaching methods and are constantly and iterating, learning, and
                    improving. It seems that the students in our previous programs agree—as does the preliminary data
                    we’ve been
                    collecting about the efficacy of our program (although our sample size is small and we can’t
                    implement a RCT).
                    We encourage students to be skeptical of all that we say, and call us out when we may be wrong.
                </p>
                <p>
                    <!--We’d love for you to apply and test the program out! If it’s not useful, you’re free to leave
                    (and maybe give us some feedback!)-->
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>Why was I rejected?</summary>
                <p>
                    We receive many wonderful applications, but unfortunately we can only accommodate a small number
                    of students to maintain our low student-to-teacher ratio. You are encouraged to apply again next
                    year. An application decision reflects only our guess about how good of a fit you would be for
                    this particular program at this time, nothing more.
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>What does a typical day during the program look like?</summary>
                <p>
                    Students start each day with a morning meeting and breakfast. Then, we dive into the day’s concept.
                    Each
                    day focuses on adding
                    a different tool to students’ repertoire, and weeks are grouped into monthly themes like
                    “statistics”
                    and “ethical frameworks.” There will be 1-2 discussions each day, 1-2 activities, and plenty of fun
                    and social events. There will also be time to work on projects or explore a concept from the day in
                    smaller groups.
                    Examples of discussion topics include: Game Theory as a Dark Art, Cognitive Biases
                    Speed-round, Intro to Forecasting, The Economics of Your Career Choice, and How to Read a
                    Scientific Study.
                </p>
                <p>
                    Activities include: a cold war nuclear simulation,
                    <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stag_hunt">stag hunts</a>, a walk through a map of moral
                    philosophies, a lottery with varying odds, and a chance to forecast when the U.S. will reach herd immunity with COVID.
                </p>
            </details>
            <!--<details>
                <summary>Why should I sign up for this?</summary>
                <p>
                    If you love to poke, prod, and question this complicated thing called “reality” and figure out
                    how it works, or if you have something you want to achieve (be that a better world, happiness,
                    or something else), and if you want to join a community of people who strive to become sharper
                    and stronger and better informed, then this is the place for you.
                </p>
            </details>-->
            <details>
                <summary>What do you mean by "beliefs"?</summary>
                <p>
                    When we say “belief,” we mean anything you think is true about the world. Something as simple as
                    “the
                    sky is blue” is a belief. So is something as controversial as “GMOs are safe to eat.” Beliefs are
                    not
                    indisputable truths about the world--you can be very confident in some beliefs, but you should still
                    be
                    willing to change your mind about them based on evidence. If I go outside and see that the sky is
                    purple,
                    I might change my mind about believing the sky is blue.
                    If I read a study that says many GMOs have
                        been
                        linked to cancer, I might change my mind about the safety of GMOs.
                </p>
                <p>
                    Many people think their beliefs are infallible. They spend most of their time trying to persuade
                    other
                    people of their beliefs and very little of their time seeing if other people's beliefs persuade them
                    to
                    change their own opinions. But most people also fiercely disagree with each other about many of
                    their
                    core beliefs (X political party is best, Y religion is true, Z is the most important issue facing
                    humanity right now). So it stands to reason that many of them are simply wrong and unwilling to even
                    entertain this possibility. Uncommon Sense is for the people who think they could be wrong about
                    their
                    beliefs, people who seek out contrasting viewpoints to test their beliefs, people who see changing
                    their
                    beliefs as an opportunity to learn rather than as a personal attack.
                </p>
            </details>
            <!--
            <details>
                <summary>What if I have more questions?</summary>
                <p>We would love to hear from you! .</p>
            </details>-->
            <details>
                <summary>Is it really free/what's the catch?</summary>
                <p>
                    Everything is 100% free, no strings attached! We simply want the world to be a better place, and we
                    feel that one of the best ways to do that is by empowering high school students to tackle the
                    world's
                    most pressing problems.
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>What’s the difference between this program and the school-year program you offer?</summary>
                <p>
                    The summer seminar is a much more intense, interactive, and rigorous program than our
                    extracurricular offering. The summer program demands a much deeper level of intellectual engagement
                    that includes projects, write-ups, and readings. We feel these aspects are necessary to prepare
                    students to fully understand, utilize, and build off of the tools and concepts we teach. The summer
                    program also fosters a community of talented students who see each other every day for discussions,
                    games, and collaborative projects. This kind of environment isn’t possible with a school-year
                    program that only meets for an hour a week.
                </p>
            </details>

            <!-- <details>
                <summary>How does the schedule work?</summary>
                <p>
                    We expect students to carve out plenty of time for or program during the weeks where it runs. The
                    full schedule will be announced soon, but in general, there will be several meetings lasting 30-120
                    minutes throughout the day. The hope is that this model will minimize “Zoom fatigue.” Some
                    activities will be mandatory, while others will be optional. There will also be asynchronous
                    activities like meetings with groups of other students to work on projects, independent readings,
                    time to write and think independently, and other challenges. We expect there to be about 1 hour of
                    required real-time activities, 2 hours of optional real-time activities, and 2 hours of asynchronous
                    work each weekday.
                </p>
            </details> -->
            <br>
            <h4 class="noslashes">COVID-19</h4>

            <details>
                <summary>How are you taking COVID precautions?</summary>
                <p>
                    We take COVID-19 very seriously. All instructors and guests who attend in-person will be vaccinated,
                    while other speakers will be virtual to limit risks of transmission.
                    Most participants will need to be vaccinated, and regular testing will be done during the program.
                    We will provide N-95s to all participants for their air travel, and will offer masks throughout the
                    program. Non-vaccinated students will not share rooms with each other, and will be asked to social
                    distance throughout the program.
                    All participants will track their <a
                        href="https://www.microcovid.org/?distance=sixFt&duration=360&interaction=oneTime&personCount=20&riskProfile=average&setting=plane&subLocation=US_41029&theirMask=basic&topLocation=US_41&voice=silent&yourMask=basic">COVID
                        risk</a>
                    in the weeks leading up to the program.
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>Who will be vaccinated?</summary>
                <p>
                    All instructors and guests will be vaccinated. While California
                    speakers will visit in-person, other speakers will be virtual to limit risks of transmission from
                    flights. All people over the age of 16 must be vaccinated if it is safe for them to do so. Those who are unvaccinated will be staying in their own cabins.
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>What precautions will be taken after students arrive at the program?</summary>
                <p>
                    Aside from vaccinations, rapid tests will be required every other day, including 3 days before the program begins. Free p100 masks will be provided. Temperature checks will be performed daily. 
                </p>
            </details>
            <br>
            <h4 class="noslashes">About nominations</h4>

            <details>
                <summary id="nominate">As a teacher, what kind of students should I nominate?</summary>
                <!-- MOVE THIS TO APPLICATION FORM-->
                <p>
                    We expect that students who possess at least a few of the traits and inclinations below will be
                    great fits for Uncommon Sense.
                </p>
                <ul>
                    <li>Having agency: when faced with a challenge, does the student invent and pursue their own
                        solutions
                        without being prompted or told to do so? Do they work on ambitious projects on their own?</li>
                    <li>Carefully thinking through their values and actions: when they make important decisions, do they
                        know the precise reasons behind their decisions?</li>
                    <li>A tendency to optimize for important goals: when the student wants to do something, do they plan
                        out
                        their actions and consider many options? When shown a better way to do a difficult task, do they
                        adopt the new method? When they decide how to use their time or resources, do they think about
                        the alternative ways they could use these resources?</li>
                    <li>An affinity for truth: does this student seek out ideas that challenge their opinions? If they
                        find
                        evidence that contradicts their opinions, do they eagerly change their mind? Do they enjoy
                        learning and exploring?</li>
                    <li>Interest in rationality and cognition: has this student demonstrated a desire to improve their
                        thinking? Do they enjoy
                        talking about cognitive biases, or reading about psychology, economics, AI, cognitive science,
                        philosophy, or a related subject?</li>
                    <li>A desire to make the world better: does this student have a drive to achieve some lofty goal to
                        improve
                        the world? Do they care about the details of this plan and are they taking steps to achieve it?
                    </li>
                    <!-- old summary 
                    We expect that students who possess at least a few of the following traits and inclinations will be great fits for Uncommon Sense:

                    - possesses agency and independent ambition. (When faced with a challenge, does the student invent and pursue their own solutions without being prompted or told to do so?)

                    - carefully thinks through their decisions with reason and evidence

                    - creates effective plans for achieving their important goals

                    - possessing an affinity for truth, especially when it contradicts their current beliefs

                    - desires to make the world a better place, has a plan to do this, and has taken steps towards their plan

                    - has an interest in rationality and cognition topics such as cognitive biases, psychology, economics, AI, and philosophy.


                    A good applicant probably possesses at least three of these traits, though there are sure to be plenty of exceptions. For more details, please see the end of the FAQ section at bitbybitcoding.org/uncommonsenseseminar#faqs-->
                </ul>
                <p>
                    A good applicant probably possesses at least three of these traits, though there are sure to be
                    plenty of exceptions. These are merely guidelines.
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>As a student, what if I don’t have anyone to nominate me?</summary>
                <p>
                    If you do not know anyone suitable to nominate you (ie if you are homeschooled), please email <a
                        href="mailto:{{site.contact.email}}">info@bitbybitcoding.org</a> explaining your situation.
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>As a teacher, what if I want to nominate more than 10 students?</summary>
                <p>
                    We recognize some instructors may know an unusual number of good candidates for our program (for
                    example if they run a class on critical thinking). If you feel confident that more than 10 of your
                    students would be an excellent fit for Uncommon Sense, please email us at <a
                        href="mailto:{{site.contact.email}}">info@bitbybitcoding.org</a>.
                </p>
            </details>
            <details>
                <summary>Why is a teacher nomination required before I can apply?</summary>
                <p>
                    Our program is only suitable for a unique kind of student. The pace is fast, the questions are
                    tough, and the
                    work is demanding. We need students who thrive in tackling difficult questions, who value science
                    and knowledge, and who actually want to learn the material we offer rather than to collect a name
                    for their resume.
                </p>
                <p>
                    Unfortunately, trying to figure out which students will thrive in our program is a difficult task.
                </p>
                <p>
                    We could require students to write long essays and wax poetic about bayesian reasoning, but high
                    school students are already inundated with application essays to write, and the best essays tend to
                    only be a sign of good writing ability (and access to good education, familiarity with Standard
                    American English rather than African American Vernacular English, etc). This would not work for the
                    holistic kind of
                    student we seek.
                </p>
                <p>
                    We could look at test scores, but these measure privilege and test-taking ability as much as they
                    <!-- well sort of -->
                    measure academic prowess or intellect. Moreover, many students haven’t taken these exams, and they
                    don’t capture the traits we’re looking for very well.
                </p>
                <p>
                    We could look at grades, these can vary widely between schools, and again might reflect access
                    to tutors and other resources more than inherent ability. Additionally, grades also don’t encompass the
                    traits we are looking for too well.
                </p>
                <p>
                    However, instructors already have a holistic view of their students, so we trust their judgment
                    much more
                    than any other metric. Applying this simple filter prevents students who aren’t a good fit from
                    needlessly filling out the application, and encourages students who are a good fit but feel
                    insecure about their talents to apply. Obviously instructor nominations are not a perfect metric,
                    but they’re the best we have right now.
                </p>
            </details>
        </section>
        <br>
        <div class="section">
            <section class="faqs" id="faqs">
                <h3 class="noslashes">Have more questions?</h3>
                <p>If you have any questions not addressed above, you may email us at <a
                        href="mailto:{{site.contact.email}}">{{site.contact.email}}</a>.</p>
                <br>
            </section>
        </div>  */}}
    </div>
</div>