This repository was archived by the owner on Jan 26, 2025. It is now read-only.
-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 2
Expand file tree
/
Copy pathuncommonsense.html
More file actions
326 lines (317 loc) · 19.8 KB
/
uncommonsense.html
File metadata and controls
326 lines (317 loc) · 19.8 KB
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
---
layout: default
title: "Uncommon Sense: Bit by Bit"
banner-title: "Uncommon Sense"
scripts:
- "signup.js"
- "us.js"
style: programdetails.css
noindex: true
---
{% if page.noindex %}
<meta name="robots" content="noindex">
{% endif %}
<div id="uncommonsense">
<div class="details-container">
<div class="details-item">
<h1>Uncommon Sense</h1>
<span class="title-text">
A free, experimental program launched in partnership with <a
href="https://web.stanford.edu/group/ea/">Stanford Effective Altruism</a>. Priority applications
close
February 1st at midnight PT. After that applications will be evaluated on a rolling basis.
</span>
<div class="info-banner">
Play with cutting-edge artificial intelligence and try to figure out its impact on the world.
</div>
<div class="info-banner">
Challenge your ideas.
</div>
<div class="info-banner">
Compete in the <strong>The Economist's World in 2021</strong> forecasting challenge.
</div>
Uncommon Sense has been wound down and will not run again.
{{/*
<p>
<strong>What is Uncommon Sense?</strong>
Our program is a free online seminar for high schoolers offered in partnership with
<a href="https://web.stanford.edu/group/ea/">
Stanford Effective Altruism
</a>
that gives inquisitive high schoolers the opportunity to master decision-making techniques based
in philosophy, economics, game theory, cognitive science, and statistics. Our teaching team of
Stanford students provides students with valuable critical thinking skills in a unique
discussion-based format.
</p>
<p>
Students will use the skills they learn in Uncommon Sense to compete in global forecasting
competitions like
<a href="https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/50-the-economist-the-world-in-2021">
The Economist's World in 2021 forecasting challenge
</a> for the chance to win the
title of Superforecaster. In these contests, students will practice answers to questions such as
“How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA
as of 31 March 2021?” and “What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter
of 2021?”
</p>
<p>
In addition to forecasting, accepted students will learn to build models of complex systems, create
Bayesian priors, examine and combat their cognitive biases, and make more accurate predictions. Classes
are project-based, incorporating interactive activities such as a cold war nuclear simulation, an
iterated prisoner’s dilemma tournament, betting with fake currency, and much more.
</p>
<p>
Above all, Uncommon Sense will help you reconsider the countless decisions you make each day, like:
</p>
<p>
Should you be taking vitamin D to prevent COVID
(<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsbmb.2020.105751">one study shows it significantly reduced COVID-19
hospitalizations
</a>
but
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-77093-z">
another study shows it doesn’t help patients who are already hospitalized</a>)?
What career will make you happiest and have the best impact on the world
(<a href="https://80000hours.org/2012/08/how-many-lives-does-a-doctor-save/">a doctor typically only saves
</a>
as many lives as
<a href="https://80000hours.org/2017/05/how-much-do-hedge-fund-traders-earn/#how-do-hedge-funds-make-money-and-how-is-it-shared-among-the-employees">
a quantitative trader
</a>
<a href="https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models">
donating
</a>
1% of their income)? How should the US tackle
climate change (<a href="https://www.vox.com/2014/10/4/6901299/plastic-bags-environment">a plastic bag ban may actually
increase emissions</a>, though it would decrease litter)?
</p>
<p>
<strong>Too often, these decisions are automatic, or influenced by our cognitive biases, or
dictated by social norms.
</strong>
Even people’s most strongly held opinions are often just a product of their environment, not
something they’ve actually thought through and come to their own conclusion on — you can
predict someone’s political party with,
<a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/14515/teens-stay-true-parents-political-perspectives.aspx">
70% accuracy
</a>
based on how their parents voted.
</p>
<p>
Graduates of Uncommon Sense will gain the skills they need to come to their own conclusions about
critical problems, make more informed choices, and better understand the levers and gears in the world
around them.
</p>
<p>
<strong>The program is free for all admitted students and occurs weekly on Wednesday from 4-5 pm PT.</strong>
</p>
<!--<p>
<strong>What: </strong>
From world leaders deciding whether to launch nuclear missiles, to students deciding
where to apply to college, turning information into effective decisions is hard, and it
matters. Uncommon Sense is a program for inquisitive high schoolers interested in
learning ways to challenge their beliefs, improve their decisions-making, and think about world-changing
ideas. We aim to
teach not what to think, but how to think critically. To do this, we immerse students in
the discoveries of cognitive science, statistics, philosophy, decision theory, and more,
and we support students in applying these ideas to help solve global problems and
achieve their own goals. </p>
<p><strong>Who: </strong>Grades 9-12
</p>
<p>
<strong>When: </strong>
From 4-5pm PT every Wednesday.
</p>
<p><strong>Where: </strong>Online. Join us from anywhere.</p>
<p><strong>Cost: </strong> Free, with a suggested donation of $20 per month! <a
href="{{ 'donate.html' | relative_url | remove: '.html' }}">Click here</a> to contribute.</p>-->
<a
href="https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfR2lw8nR5O6m5yJoN__JdJtjfsAE4-13kOIC1IRj7NBlAVzw/viewform" id="us-signup"><button
class="action-button largebutton">Apply</button></a>
</div>
</div>
<div class="section">
<section class="faqs">
<h3>FAQs</h3>
<details>
<summary>What, exactly, do you teach?</summary>
<p>
Great question! The things we teach fall into two broad categories:
<ol>
<li>
Instrumental Rationality: the skills you need to achieve your goals. What do you value for
its own sake? What are the things you want to achieve above all else, the things your other
actions are stepping-stones towards? These terminal goals could be happiness, improving the
world, becoming famous, anything. Now ask yourself what you did this past hour. Was it the
best possible action you could have taken to achieve your goals? We help you achieve your
goals by giving you tools that help you become accustomed to making plans and habits that
actually work and inch you in the direction you want to go.
</li>
<li>
Epistemic rationality: the use of evidence and reason to form accurate beliefs about the world.
Specific skills we will teach include Bayesian reasoning, statistics, epistemology, cognitive
biases, forecasting, and building models of complex systems. We teach epistemic rationality by
offering interesting and complex ideas for you to discuss, debate, and form beliefs about. We
also equip you with useful ideas that help you think clearly about uncertainty and complex
systems.
</li>
</ol>
</p>
</details>
<details>
<summary>What do you mean by "beliefs"?</summary>
<p>
When we say “belief,” we mean anything you think is true about the world. Something as simple as
“the
sky is blue” is a belief. So is something as controversial as “GMOs are safe to eat.” Beliefs are
not
indisputable Truths about the world--you can be very confident in some beliefs, but you should still
be
willing to change your mind about them based on evidence. If I go outside and see that the sky is
purple,
I might change my mind about believing the sky is blue. If I read a study that says many GMOs have
been
linked to cancer, I might change my mind about GMOs being safe.
</p>
<p>
Many people think their beliefs are infallible. They spend most of their time trying to persuade
other
people of their beliefs and very little of their time seeing if other people's beliefs persuade them
to
change their own opinions. But most people also fiercely disagree with each other about many of
their
core beliefs (X political party is best, Y religion is true, Z is the most important issue facing
humanity right now). So it stands to reason that many of them are simply wrong and unwilling to even
entertain this possibility. Uncommon Sense is for the people who think they could be wrong about
their
beliefs, people who seek out contrasting viewpoints to test their beliefs, people who see changing
their
beliefs as an opportunity to learn rather than as a personal attack.
</p>
</details>
<details>
<summary>Who should sign up/is this stuff I already know?</summary>
<p>
If you are not already familiar with and interested in most of the following concepts, Uncommon
Sense might be for you:
<ul>
<li>Bayesian reasoning</li>
<li>Applied game theory</li>
<li>Collaborative truth-seeking</li>
<li>Moral philosophy</li>
<li>Epistemology</li>
</ul>
</p>
<p>
Here are a few fun little puzzles that should give you a taste of the flavor of questions we
focus on:
<ul>
<li>You are on a jury trying to decide whether or not to condemn someone for kidnapping and
ransoming an innocent man. Police are certain the perpetrator was one of 30 people staying
in a certain motel who match the basic demographics of the kidnapper and have weak alibis.
The businessperson then picked the accused out of a lineup. You know a perpetrator gets
correctly identified in a lineup about 60% of the time, and any given innocent person gets
identified about 10% of the time. Based on this evidence, what are the odds that the
accused is guilty? (<a href="https://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule/?l=1zq">hint</a>)
</li>
<li>
You are an economics professor who forgot to go to the ATM before leaving for work, and who
has only $20 in your pocket. You have a lunch meeting at a very expensive French restaurant,
but you're stuck teaching classes until lunchtime and have no way to get money. Can you trick
your students into giving you enough money for lunch in exchange for your $20, without lying
to them in any way?
(<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A2Qam9Bd9xpbb2wLQ/game-theory-as-a-dark-art">source
and answer</a>)
</li>
<li>
According to the
<a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_voting#:~:text=The%20paradox%20of%20voting%2C%20also,normally%20exceed%20the%20expected%20benefits.&text=Moreover%2C%20the%20expected%20benefits%20are,will%20never%20be%20certainly%20pivotal.">
paradox of voting
</a>
, voting is never a rational choice for a self-interested individual to make because your
vote has a minuscule chance of influencing the election but there is a significant cost to
yourself to go out and vote. Yet, it’s possible that even a selfish person should go out
and vote. Why might this be?
(<a
href="https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/timeless-decision-theory#:~:text=Timeless%20decision%20theory%20(TDT)%20is,abstract%20computation%20that%20they%20implement.">hint</a>)
</li>
</ul>
</p>
</details>
<details>
<summary>Why are you qualified to teach this?</summary>
<p>
We are a team of Stanford students with experience in computer science, economics, machine
learning, and public policy. We have combined our own knowledge and experiences with select
ideas from cognitive science, economics, psychology, philosophy, computer science, and forecasting,
game theory, statistics, and many other fields. (These various disciplines may all seem disparate,
but they all provide useful tools that help instill what it means to think critically.) We
regularly
run programs to teach these concepts to Stanford students, and we developed our curriculum with
advice from people who have run workshops, summer camps, and seminars aimed at teaching critical
thinking techniques to professionals, high schoolers, and students at top universities.
</p>
<p>
But at the end of the day, we don’t claim to be more rational or correct than anyone else. We think
we have some ideas people might find useful, ideas we’ve thought about and some ideas we’ve adapted
from organizations like <a href="https://www.rationality.org/">CFAR</a> (though we are not
affiliated
with them). We regularly try new teaching methods and are constantly and iterating, learning, and
improving. It seems like students in our programs agree, as does preliminary data we’ve been
collecting
about the efficacy of our program (though our sample size is small and we can’t implement a RCT).
We encourage you to be skeptical of everything we say and call us out if you think we’re wrong about
something.
</p>
<p>
We’d love for you to apply and test the program out! If it’s not useful, you’re free to leave
(and maybe give us some feedback!)
</p>
</details>
<details>
<summary>Why was I rejected?</summary>
<p>
We receive many wonderful applications, but unfortunately we can only accommodate a small number
of students to maintain our low student-to-teacher ratio. You are encouraged to apply again next
year. An application decision reflects only our guess about how good of a fit you would be for
this particular program at this time, nothing more.
</p>
</details>
<details>
<summary>What does a typical meeting look like?</summary>
<p>
Students start each day with a five-minute <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_problem">
Fermi problem</a> warm-up. Then, we dive into the day’s concept. Each week focuses on adding
a different tool to students’ repertoire, and weeks are grouped into monthly themes like “statistics”
and “ethical frameworks.” Often, the week’s focus is determined by what students want to learn
more about. Examples of weekly topics include: Game Theory as a Dark Art, Cognitive Biases
Speedround, Intro to Forecasting, The Economics of Your Career Choice, and How to Read a
Scientific Study. Meetings typically include at least ten minutes of discussions in small groups
as well about twenty minutes dedicated to activities that explore a concept in-depth. Some sample
discussion questions: How Do you think equality is a terminal or instrumental goal?
</p>
<p>
Activities include: a cold war nuclear simulation,
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stag_hunt">stag hunts</a>, a walk through a map of moral
philosophies, a lottery with varying odds, and a chance to forecast when at least 10 million
Americans will receive a COVID-19 vaccine.
</p>
</details>
<details>
<summary>Why should I sign up for this?</summary>
<p>
If you love to poke, prod, and question this complicated thing called “reality” and figure out
how it works, or if you have something you want to achieve (be that a better world, happiness,
or something else), and if you want to join a community of people who strive to become sharper
and stronger and better informed, then this is the place for you.
</p>
</details>
<details>
<summary>What if I have more questions?</summary>
<p>We would love to hear from you! Email us at <a
href="mailto:{{site.contact.email}}">{{site.contact.email}}</a>.</p>
</details>
</section>*/}}
</div>
</div>