MacroMod/index.html at main · PolicyEngine/MacroMod · GitHub

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<!doctype html>
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<title>macromod — macroeconomic simulation, built in the open</title>
<meta name="description" content="MacroMod is PolicyEngine's open platform of economic and public-policy simulation models: an overlapping-generations model, an OBR model emulator, a UK structural VAR, and PolicyEngine's tax-benefit microsimulation — all reading the same economy, in the open." />
<meta property="og:title" content="macromod" />
<meta property="og:description" content="Open-source macroeconomic simulation models for public policy." />
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    <span class="brand-dot" aria-hidden="true"></span>macromod
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  <nav class="nav-links">
    <a href="#idea">idea</a>
    <a href="#models">models</a>
    <a href="#pipeline">pipeline</a>
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    <a href="/connect/">use it</a>
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<main id="top">
  <section class="hero">
    <div class="hero-inner">
      <h1 class="reveal" style="--d:1">
        An open platform for policy
        <br />and economic simulation.
      </h1>
      <p class="lede reveal" style="--d:2">
        <strong>macromod</strong> is an open platform of economic and
        public-policy models: score a reform, forecast the economy, and read
        its shocks — from one household's taxes to the long-run steady state.
        Four engines, one suite, improved in the open.
      </p>
      <div class="hero-cta reveal" style="--d:3">
        <a class="btn btn-primary" href="#models">Explore the models</a>
        <a class="btn btn-ghost" href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/MacroMod">Read the code</a>
      </div>
    </div>
  </section>

  <section id="idea" class="band">
    <div class="band-head">
      <span class="kicker mono">01 — the idea</span>
      <h2>From static scores to microfounded models.</h2>
    </div>
    <div class="prose">
      <p>
        Policy analysis usually stops at a static score — who pays what the
        morning after a reform. But people respond: they work, save, and
        invest differently; firms adjust; wages, prices, and interest rates
        move, and the fiscal arithmetic moves with them. Modeling that
        response has been the preserve of institutions with in-house model
        teams.
      </p>
      <p>
        macromod opens it up — <strong>the full economy's answer, a model
        away</strong>: an overlapping-generations engine for the long run, the
        OBR's own equations for the near-term fiscal path, and a Bayesian
        structural VAR that reads today's economy in shock terms. Every engine
        open source, every result reproducible, one command away.
      </p>
    </div>
  </section>

  <section id="models" class="band band-stack">
    <div class="band-head">
      <span class="kicker mono">02 — the models</span>
      <h2>One suite, many lenses on the same economy.</h2>
    </div>
    <div class="prose" style="margin-bottom: 36px;">
      <p>
        Different questions need different macro machinery. Every model in the
        suite scores the same PolicyEngine reform objects and reports the same
        real-world quantities, so results are comparable across model classes
        — and every model gets its own page: a 30-second explainer, the method,
        and the calibration evidence.
      </p>
    </div>
    <div class="strategy-grid">
      <a class="strategy-card" href="/olg/">
        <header><span class="card-id mono">psl-og</span><span class="tag tag-live">live</span></header>
        <h3>PSL overlapping generations model</h3>
        <p>
          A dynamic general-equilibrium model of 80 age cohorts working, saving,
          and retiring — built on OG-Core, calibrated to national accounts, with
          tax functions estimated from PolicyEngine microdata. Solves the long-run
          steady state and the year-by-year transition path for GDP, investment,
          consumption, revenue, and debt.
        </p>
        <span class="strategy-paper-link mono">read the model →</span>
      </a>
      <a class="strategy-card" href="/obr/">
        <header><span class="card-id mono">obr-macro</span><span class="tag tag-live">live</span></header>
        <h3>OBR macroeconometric model</h3>
        <p>
          A Python emulator of the OBR's own published forecasting model — 372
          structural equations solved simultaneously by Gauss–Seidel iteration.
          Runs fiscal-multiplier and tax-shock experiments quarter by quarter,
          anchored to the official Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
        </p>
        <span class="strategy-paper-link mono">read the model →</span>
      </a>
      <a class="strategy-card" href="/svar/">
        <header><span class="card-id mono">boe-svar</span><span class="tag tag-live">live</span></header>
        <h3>Bank of England structural VAR model</h3>
        <p>
          A Python replication of the Bank of England's structural VAR for the
          UK economy — eight quarterly variables, six identified shocks (world
          demand, energy, and supply; UK demand, supply, and monetary policy).
          Decomposes GDP and inflation into their drivers, forecasts with
          credible bands, and explains forecast revisions.
        </p>
        <span class="strategy-paper-link mono">read the model →</span>
      </a>
      <a class="strategy-card" href="/pe/">
        <header><span class="card-id mono">pe-microsim</span><span class="tag tag-live">live</span></header>
        <h3>PolicyEngine tax-benefit microsimulation</h3>
        <p>
          The micro member of the suite: PolicyEngine's tax-benefit
          microsimulation package for the UK and US — the same engine behind
          policyengine.org. Computes a specific family's taxes, benefits, and
          net income under current law or a reform, at person and household
          resolution; population-level reform scoring is planned.
        </p>
        <span class="strategy-paper-link mono">read the model →</span>
      </a>
    </div>
    <p class="next-invite mono">
      <span class="tag tag-wip">next</span> new model classes are in design —
      <a href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/MacroMod/issues/new?title=Model+suggestion:+&labels=model-suggestion">tell us which model we should add next →</a>
    </p>
  </section>

  <section id="pipeline" class="band">
    <div class="band-head">
      <span class="kicker mono">03 — the pipeline</span>
      <h2>Statute in, economy out.</h2>
    </div>
    <div class="prose">
      <p>
        One question, four entry points. A reform enters as
        <strong>actual policy parameters</strong> — a tax rate, an allowance, a
        benefit amount — and each engine answers at its own resolution: the
        microsimulation computes what it does to a named household, the OLG
        model solves the long-run general equilibrium, the OBR emulator traces
        the quarter-by-quarter fiscal path, and the structural VAR reads which
        shocks are driving the economy you're about to change.
      </p>
      <p>
        Every result is a <strong>deviation from an official baseline</strong>
        — ONS, OBR, and Bank of England data — in real-world units: £ per year
        for a household, £bn and % of GDP for the economy. One connector, one
        CLI, one Python API drive all four.
      </p>
    </div>
  </section>

  <section class="band band-cta">
    <h2>Built in the open. Read it, run it, contribute.</h2>
    <p class="cta-sub">
      Every model, dataset decision, and validation report lives in a public
      repository — nothing behind a login, nothing you can't rerun. File an
      issue, suggest the next model, or open a pull request.
    </p>
    <div class="hero-cta">
      <a class="btn btn-primary" href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/MacroMod">GitHub</a>
      <a class="btn btn-ghost" href="https://policyengine.org">PolicyEngine</a>
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    <a href="/docs/">docs</a>
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    <a href="https://github.com/PolicyEngine/MacroMod">GitHub</a>
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