Feat/simulation update (#206)

* added new simulation runner to test agents in simulated environment
* Delphi loop in ai congress
* created example simulations
* Added conditional intervention testing

Author: CodexVeritas

code_tests/unit_tests/test_agents_and_tools/test_ai_congress.py

@@ -0,0 +1,228 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+
+from forecasting_tools.agents_and_tools.ai_congress.congress_member_agent import (
+    CongressMemberAgent,
+)
+from forecasting_tools.agents_and_tools.ai_congress.data_models import (
+    CongressMember,
+    ForecastDescription,
+    PolicyProposal,
+)
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+def _make_member(
+    name: str = "Test Member", ai_model: str = "test-model"
+) -> CongressMember:
+    return CongressMember(
+        name=name,
+        role="Test Role",
+        political_leaning="Center",
+        general_motivation="Test motivation",
+        expertise_areas=["economics", "policy evaluation"],
+        personality_traits=["analytical", "pragmatic"],
+        ai_model=ai_model,
+    )
+
+
+def _make_forecast(
+    footnote_id: int = 1,
+    title: str = "Test Forecast",
+    prediction: str = "65%",
+    is_conditional: bool = False,
+) -> ForecastDescription:
+    return ForecastDescription(
+        footnote_id=footnote_id,
+        question_title=title,
+        question_text="Will X happen by 2027?",
+        resolution_criteria="Resolves YES if X happens",
+        prediction=prediction,
+        reasoning="Based on historical data and trends",
+        key_sources=["source1.com", "source2.com"],
+        is_conditional=is_conditional,
+    )
+
+
+def _make_proposal(
+    member_name: str = "Member A",
+    recommendations: list[str] | None = None,
+    forecasts: list[ForecastDescription] | None = None,
+    delphi_round: int = 1,
+) -> PolicyProposal:
+    member = _make_member(name=member_name)
+    if recommendations is None:
+        recommendations = [
+            f"Recommendation 1 from {member_name}",
+            f"Recommendation 2 from {member_name}",
+        ]
+    if forecasts is None:
+        forecasts = [_make_forecast(footnote_id=1, title=f"{member_name} Forecast")]
+    return PolicyProposal(
+        member=member,
+        research_summary=f"Research summary from {member_name}",
+        decision_criteria=["Criterion 1", "Criterion 2"],
+        forecasts=forecasts,
+        proposal_markdown=f"# Proposal from {member_name}\n\nSome analysis text.",
+        key_recommendations=recommendations,
+        delphi_round=delphi_round,
+    )
+
+
+class TestFormatOtherProposalsForReview:
+    def test_formats_multiple_proposals(self) -> None:
+        proposals = [
+            _make_proposal("Alice"),
+            _make_proposal("Bob"),
+        ]
+        result = CongressMemberAgent._format_other_proposals_for_review(proposals)
+        assert "Alice" in result
+        assert "Bob" in result
+        assert "Recommendation 1 from Alice" in result
+        assert "Recommendation 1 from Bob" in result
+
+    def test_includes_forecast_titles_and_predictions(self) -> None:
+        forecasts = [
+            _make_forecast(footnote_id=1, title="GDP Growth", prediction="40%"),
+            _make_forecast(footnote_id=2, title="Unemployment", prediction="25%"),
+        ]
+        proposals = [_make_proposal("Carol", forecasts=forecasts)]
+        result = CongressMemberAgent._format_other_proposals_for_review(proposals)
+        assert "GDP Growth" in result
+        assert "40%" in result
+        assert "Unemployment" in result
+        assert "25%" in result
+
+    def test_skips_proposals_without_member(self) -> None:
+        proposal_without_member = PolicyProposal(
+            member=None,
+            research_summary="No member",
+            decision_criteria=["C1"],
+            forecasts=[],
+            proposal_markdown="Text",
+            key_recommendations=["Rec"],
+        )
+        result = CongressMemberAgent._format_other_proposals_for_review(
+            [proposal_without_member]
+        )
+        assert result == ""
+
+    def test_separates_proposals_with_dividers(self) -> None:
+        proposals = [_make_proposal("Alice"), _make_proposal("Bob")]
+        result = CongressMemberAgent._format_other_proposals_for_review(proposals)
+        assert "---" in result
+
+
+class TestFormatOwnProposalForReview:
+    def test_formats_own_recommendations_and_forecasts(self) -> None:
+        proposal = _make_proposal(
+            "Self",
+            recommendations=["My Rec 1", "My Rec 2"],
+            forecasts=[_make_forecast(title="My Forecast", prediction="70%")],
+        )
+        result = CongressMemberAgent._format_own_proposal_for_review(proposal)
+        assert "My Rec 1" in result
+        assert "My Rec 2" in result
+        assert "My Forecast" in result
+        assert "70%" in result
+
+
+class TestBuildRevisionInstructions:
+    def test_includes_member_identity(self) -> None:
+        member = _make_member("TestAgent")
+        agent = CongressMemberAgent(member)
+        own_proposal = _make_proposal("TestAgent")
+        other_proposals = [_make_proposal("Other1")]
+        instructions = agent._build_revision_instructions(
+            "Should we regulate AI?", own_proposal, other_proposals, delphi_round=2
+        )
+        assert "TestAgent" in instructions
+        assert "Test Role" in instructions
+
+    def test_includes_policy_prompt(self) -> None:
+        member = _make_member("TestAgent")
+        agent = CongressMemberAgent(member)
+        own_proposal = _make_proposal("TestAgent")
+        other_proposals = [_make_proposal("Other1")]
+        policy_prompt = "How should we address climate change?"
+        instructions = agent._build_revision_instructions(
+            policy_prompt, own_proposal, other_proposals, delphi_round=2
+        )
+        assert policy_prompt in instructions
+
+    def test_includes_delphi_round_number(self) -> None:
+        member = _make_member("TestAgent")
+        agent = CongressMemberAgent(member)
+        own_proposal = _make_proposal("TestAgent")
+        other_proposals = [_make_proposal("Other1")]
+        instructions = agent._build_revision_instructions(
+            "Test prompt", own_proposal, other_proposals, delphi_round=3
+        )
+        assert "Delphi Round 3" in instructions
+
+    def test_includes_other_members_proposals(self) -> None:
+        member = _make_member("TestAgent")
+        agent = CongressMemberAgent(member)
+        own_proposal = _make_proposal("TestAgent")
+        other_proposals = [
+            _make_proposal("Rival1", recommendations=["Impose tariffs"]),
+            _make_proposal("Rival2", recommendations=["Remove tariffs"]),
+        ]
+        instructions = agent._build_revision_instructions(
+            "Trade policy", own_proposal, other_proposals, delphi_round=2
+        )
+        assert "Rival1" in instructions
+        assert "Rival2" in instructions
+        assert "Impose tariffs" in instructions
+        assert "Remove tariffs" in instructions
+
+    def test_includes_own_proposal_content(self) -> None:
+        member = _make_member("TestAgent")
+        agent = CongressMemberAgent(member)
+        own_proposal = _make_proposal(
+            "TestAgent", recommendations=["My special recommendation"]
+        )
+        other_proposals = [_make_proposal("Other")]
+        instructions = agent._build_revision_instructions(
+            "Test prompt", own_proposal, other_proposals, delphi_round=2
+        )
+        assert "My special recommendation" in instructions
+
+
+class TestOrchestratorProposalFiltering:
+    def test_other_proposals_exclude_own_member(self) -> None:
+        proposals = [
+            _make_proposal("Alice"),
+            _make_proposal("Bob"),
+            _make_proposal("Carol"),
+        ]
+        alice_others = [p for p in proposals if p.member and p.member.name != "Alice"]
+        assert len(alice_others) == 2
+        assert all(p.member.name != "Alice" for p in alice_others)
+        assert {p.member.name for p in alice_others} == {"Bob", "Carol"}
+
+    def test_own_proposal_found_by_member_name(self) -> None:
+        proposals = [
+            _make_proposal("Alice"),
+            _make_proposal("Bob"),
+            _make_proposal("Carol"),
+        ]
+        bob_own = next(
+            (p for p in proposals if p.member and p.member.name == "Bob"),
+            None,
+        )
+        assert bob_own is not None
+        assert bob_own.member.name == "Bob"
+
+    def test_own_proposal_none_when_member_missing(self) -> None:
+        proposals = [
+            _make_proposal("Alice"),
+            _make_proposal("Carol"),
+        ]
+        bob_own = next(
+            (p for p in proposals if p.member and p.member.name == "Bob"),
+            None,
+        )
+        assert bob_own is None