feat(intelligence): add risk analysis, confidence levels, and influence scoring

- Create risk-analysis.ts with calculateCoalitionRiskIndex, detectAnomalousPatterns,
  and generateTrendComparison for political intelligence analysis
- Add ConfidenceLevel type and assessConfidenceLevel() to policy-analysis.ts
- Add NarrativeFrame type and detectNarrativeFrames() to policy-analysis.ts
- Add calculateInfluenceScore() to document-analysis.ts for committee influence scoring
- Add early warning flags to generateDocumentIntelligenceAnalysis() when CIA data
  indicates coalition instability and high-influence documents are at risk
- Export all new functions and types from data-transformers/index.ts
- Add 32 tests in tests/risk-analysis.test.ts with full coverage of new functions

All 1855 tests pass (1823 pre-existing + 32 new).

Author: Copilot

scripts/data-transformers/document-analysis.ts

@@ -25,6 +25,58 @@ import {
 } from './helpers.js';
 import { detectPolicyDomains, generatePolicySignificance, generateDeepPolicyAnalysis } from './policy-analysis.js';
 
+/** Committee codes with known high-influence weighting */
+const HIGH_INFLUENCE_COMMITTEES = new Set(['FiU', 'KU', 'JuU', 'UU', 'FöU', 'SoU']);
+/** Document types that carry higher parliamentary influence */
+const HIGH_INFLUENCE_TYPES = new Set(['prop', 'bet', 'skr', 'dir']);
+
+/**
+ * Calculate an influence score (0-100) for a parliamentary document.
+ * Considers committee tier, document type, policy domain breadth,
+ * and the presence of full content as a proxy for document depth.
+ *
+ * @param doc - The document to score
+ * @returns Influence score 0-100
+ */
+export function calculateInfluenceScore(doc: RawDocument): number {
+  let score = 0;
+
+  // Document type weighting (propositions > reports > motions)
+  const docType = doc.doktyp || doc.documentType || '';
+  if (HIGH_INFLUENCE_TYPES.has(docType)) {
+    score += docType === 'prop' ? 35 : docType === 'bet' ? 30 : 20;
+  } else if (docType === 'mot') {
+    score += 10;
+  } else {
+    score += 15; // unknown type gets moderate weight
+  }
+
+  // Committee tier weighting
+  const organ = doc.organ || doc.committee || '';
+  if (HIGH_INFLUENCE_COMMITTEES.has(organ)) {
+    score += 30;
+  } else if (organ) {
+    score += 15;
+  }
+
+  // Policy domain breadth (more domains = broader impact)
+  const domains = detectPolicyDomains(doc);
+  score += Math.min(20, domains.length * 7);
+
+  // Content richness (full text available indicates substantive document)
+  if (doc.fullText || doc.fullContent) {
+    score += 10;
+  }
+
+  // Party sponsorship (government documents inherently carry more weight)
+  const isGovernment = !doc.parti || doc.doktyp === 'prop';
+  if (isGovernment && docType !== 'mot') {
+    score += 5;
+  }
+
+  return Math.min(100, score);
+}
+
 /** Matches a strict proposition ID (YYYY/YY:NNN) in a motion title. */
 const PROP_REFERENCE_REGEX = /med anledning av prop\.\s+(\d{4}\/\d{2}:\d+)/i;
 
@@ -255,6 +307,27 @@ export function generateDocumentIntelligenceAnalysis(doc: RawDocument, docType:
     }
   }
 
+  // ── EARLY WARNING: high-influence documents with stability risk indicators ─
+  if (cia) {
+    const influenceScore = calculateInfluenceScore(doc);
+    const stabilityScore = cia.coalitionStability.stabilityScore;
+    const majorityMargin = cia.coalitionStability.majorityMargin;
+
+    // Flag high-influence documents during coalition instability
+    if (influenceScore >= 60 && stabilityScore < 50) {
+      parts.push(
+        `<small class="early-warning">⚠ Early warning: This high-influence document (score: ${influenceScore}) ` +
+        `arrives during a period of coalition instability (stability: ${stabilityScore}). ` +
+        `Monitor closely for defections or procedural delays.</small>`
+      );
+    } else if (majorityMargin <= 2 && (docType === 'prop' || docType === 'bet')) {
+      parts.push(
+        `<small class="early-warning">⚠ Thin majority alert: With only ${majorityMargin} seat majority, ` +
+        `this ${docType === 'prop' ? 'government bill' : 'committee report'} faces elevated defeat risk.</small>`
+      );
+    }
+  }
+
   // For propositions: coalition note is already in the article-level summary; skip per-document repetition.
   // (Moved to generateGenericContent key-takeaways section.)
 

scripts/data-transformers/index.ts

@@ -37,7 +37,15 @@ export { L, isPersonProfileText } from './helpers.js';
 export { transformCalendarToEventGrid, extractTopics, extractWatchPoints } from './calendar.js';
 
 // ── Re-export document analysis ────────────────────────────────────────────
-export { groupMotionsByProposition, groupPropositionsByCommittee } from './document-analysis.js';
+export { groupMotionsByProposition, groupPropositionsByCommittee, calculateInfluenceScore } from './document-analysis.js';
+
+// ── Re-export policy analysis (confidence levels & narrative framing) ──────
+export type { ConfidenceLevel, NarrativeFrame } from './policy-analysis.js';
+export { assessConfidenceLevel, detectNarrativeFrames } from './policy-analysis.js';
+
+// ── Re-export risk analysis ────────────────────────────────────────────────
+export type { RiskLevel, CoalitionRiskIndex, CoalitionRiskComponents, AnomalyFlag, TrendDirection, TrendDataPoint, TrendComparison } from './risk-analysis.js';
+export { calculateCoalitionRiskIndex, detectAnomalousPatterns, generateTrendComparison } from './risk-analysis.js';
 
 // ── Re-export metadata ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 export {

scripts/data-transformers/policy-analysis.ts

@@ -5,10 +5,43 @@
  * migration, EU, justice, labour, housing, transport, and trade domains
  * using keyword matching against Swedish document titles.
  *
+ * Also provides confidence level assessment for intelligence analysis.
+ *
  * @author Hack23 AB
  * @license Apache-2.0
  */
 
+/**
+ * Confidence level for intelligence assessments.
+ * Reflects the quality and quantity of supporting evidence.
+ */
+export type ConfidenceLevel = 'HIGH' | 'MEDIUM' | 'LOW';
+
+/**
+ * Assess the confidence level of an intelligence analysis based on
+ * the number of corroborating evidence items and the quality of sources.
+ *
+ * @param evidenceCount - Number of distinct evidence items supporting the assessment
+ * @param sourceQuality - Quality score of sources (0-100, higher = better)
+ * @returns Confidence level classification
+ */
+export function assessConfidenceLevel(evidenceCount: number, sourceQuality: number): ConfidenceLevel {
+  const normalizedEvidence = Math.max(0, evidenceCount);
+  const normalizedQuality = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, sourceQuality));
+
+  // HIGH: Multiple evidence items with good-quality sources
+  if (normalizedEvidence >= 5 && normalizedQuality >= 70) return 'HIGH';
+  if (normalizedEvidence >= 3 && normalizedQuality >= 85) return 'HIGH';
+
+  // LOW: Very few evidence items or very poor source quality
+  if (normalizedEvidence === 0) return 'LOW';
+  if (normalizedEvidence <= 1 && normalizedQuality < 50) return 'LOW';
+  if (normalizedQuality < 30) return 'LOW';
+
+  // MEDIUM: everything in between
+  return 'MEDIUM';
+}
+
 import { escapeHtml } from '../html-utils.js';
 import type { Language } from '../types/language.js';
 import type { RawDocument } from './types.js';
@@ -86,6 +119,75 @@ export function detectPolicyDomains(doc: RawDocument, lang: Language | string =
   return Array.from(set);
 }
 
+/**
+ * Dominant political narrative frames detected in document titles.
+ * These represent recurring rhetorical frames used across parties.
+ */
+export type NarrativeFrame =
+  | 'law-and-order'
+  | 'welfare-state-defence'
+  | 'fiscal-responsibility'
+  | 'green-transition'
+  | 'national-security'
+  | 'integration-challenge'
+  | 'eu-sovereignty'
+  | 'workers-rights';
+
+/**
+ * Detect dominant narrative frames in a document title.
+ * Narrative framing reveals which rhetorical strategies are being employed
+ * regardless of the specific policy domain.
+ *
+ * @param doc - Document to analyse
+ * @returns Array of detected narrative frames (deduplicated)
+ */
+export function detectNarrativeFrames(doc: RawDocument): NarrativeFrame[] {
+  const title = (doc.titel || doc.title || '').toLowerCase();
+  const frames = new Set<NarrativeFrame>();
+
+  // Law-and-order: crime, punishment, police
+  if (title.includes('brott') || title.includes('straff') || title.includes('polis') ||
+      title.includes('kriminal') || title.includes('gäng') || title.includes('säker'))
+    frames.add('law-and-order');
+
+  // Welfare-state defence: healthcare, social services, welfare
+  if (title.includes('välfärd') || title.includes('omsorg') || title.includes('social') ||
+      title.includes('pension') || title.includes('bidrag') || title.includes('trygghet'))
+    frames.add('welfare-state-defence');
+
+  // Fiscal responsibility: budgets, debt, taxes
+  if (title.includes('budget') || title.includes('skuld') || title.includes('bespar') ||
+      title.includes('effektiv') || title.includes('kostnad') || title.includes('överskott'))
+    frames.add('fiscal-responsibility');
+
+  // Green transition: climate, environment, energy
+  if (title.includes('klimat') || title.includes('hållbar') || title.includes('grön') ||
+      title.includes('utsläpp') || title.includes('förnybar') || title.includes('energiomstäl'))
+    frames.add('green-transition');
+
+  // National security: defence, preparedness, NATO
+  if (title.includes('försvar') || title.includes('nato') || title.includes('beredskap') ||
+      title.includes('totalförsvar') || title.includes('säkerhetsskydd'))
+    frames.add('national-security');
+
+  // Integration challenge: migration, asylum, citizenship
+  if (title.includes('integr') || title.includes('migration') || title.includes('invandring') ||
+      title.includes('asyl') || title.includes('utvisning'))
+    frames.add('integration-challenge');
+
+  // EU sovereignty: EU, European, sovereignty
+  if (/\beu\b/.test(title) || title.includes('europa') || title.includes('suveränitet') ||
+      title.includes('direktiv') || title.includes('förordning'))
+    frames.add('eu-sovereignty');
+
+  // Workers' rights: labour, unions, wages
+  if (title.includes('facklig') || title.includes('lön') || title.includes('arbetsrätt') ||
+      title.includes('kollektivavtal') || title.includes('strejk') || title.includes('anstäl'))
+    frames.add('workers-rights');
+
+  return Array.from(frames);
+}
+
 type _LangPair = { en: Record<string, string>; sv: Record<string, string> };
 
 /** Module-level constant — allocated once, shared across all calls. */